It's Better To Be Lucky Than Good
Whoever said, “Luck’s got nothing to do with it,” is a liar. After watching a weekend of football, sometimes it is better to be lucky than good.
Each week, Adam Luckett and I share our picks on the Pigskin Preview. Those three picks are just a few we will play on BetMGM. Those picks haven’t been great for Mr. Roush. Thankfully, I have luck on my side. Make no mistake about it, it’s all luck and absolutely zero skill at all. The evidence it’s clear.
Oklahoma (-6.5) Had No Business Covering
Did the right team win? Auburn fans will tell you no, thanks to the officiating. It’s not just missed pass interference calls. They had a scoop and score taken off the board, and I’m not entirely sure why. Oklahoma’s first touchdown shouldn’t have counted either. The SEC said the Sooners should’ve gotten an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty when they hid a receiver near the sideline to get a wide open man in the end zone.
If that wasn’t enough, Auburn had a lead in the fourth quarter, but John Mateer had a little more juice. He rushed from nine yards out to give Oklahoma a 5-point lead. They needed a two-point conversion to give OU bettors the cover. The pass fell incomplete.
The bet was cooked. Auburn had a chance to march down the field and win. Even if they didn’t, Oklahoma wasn’t going to score again either. Unless something crazy happened. Something crazy happened.
Auburn had a holding penalty, then a false start that backed them up to their own 13-yard line. Oklahoma got a sack on the next play, then R Mason Thomas got one more for a school-record 10th that gave the Sooners a safety. What a lucky cover.
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Onside Kick Magic in Bowling Green
Western Kentucky was a 9.5-point favorite over lowly Nevada, but the Wolf Pack were swarming on The Hill. They had a 13-10 lead entering the fourth quarter when the Tops came to life.
North Hardin product and former Kentucky running back La’Vell Wright scored the Tops’ second fourth-quarter touchdown with 1:49 left to give WKU a 24-13 lead. All they needed was a stop to take me to cover town. Chubba Purdy had different plans.
The one-time Louisville commit avoided a blitz and scrambled inside the WKU red zone. The Wolf Pack got stopped on third down and decided to settle for the field goal. At that point, my cover was dead. I turned off the game. Then this happened.
It’s clearly better to be lucky than good. If you don’t believe it, did you see what happened on Sunday? The Rams were 3.5-point underdogs and built up a 26-7 lead in the second half. They gave up three unanswered touchdowns before Matthew Stafford set up L.A. for the game-winning field goal. Instead of an outright win, they failed to cover. Unbelievable.
Let this be a lesson. Always wager responsibly.
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