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Josh Pate puts South Carolina on upset alert: 'There is a lot that points to Kentucky here.'

Jack PIlgrimby: Jack Pilgrim10 hours ago
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Columbia, South Carolina, USA: South Carolina Gamecocks head coach Shane Beamer shakes hands with Kentucky Wildcats head coach Mark Stoops following a Kentucky victory at Williams-Brice Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Blake-Imagn Images

What’s that you hear? Is that the momentum shifting in Columbia with the Kentucky Wildcats coming to town? That’s what it sounds like to me.

South Carolina currently enters Saturday’s matchup as a 5.5-point favorite, according to our friends at BetMGM, and college football expert Josh Pate doesn’t love it for the Gamecocks. Mind you, Pate is no Kentucky sunshine pumper this season — he put the Wildcats on upset alert vs. Toledo to open the season, then poked fun at Mark Stoops for having the cushiest job in the sport with all of the money and none of the title expectations. So when he says UK has a real chance to go into Williams-Brice Stadium and leave with a victory, it’s a head-turner.

In his breakdown of College Football Week 5 Upset Alerts, Kentucky at South Carolina was one of six featured matchups, and the sirens are going off in his head. It’s not adding up for the Gamecocks.

“Kentucky at South Carolina. This game is in Columbia, it’s in the Cockpit, but it’s not Cocktober yet — Cocktober can not get here soon enough, my goodness,” Pate said. “This line is 5.5, and that counts home-field advantage, people. So what we’re saying here is there is less than a field-goal gap between these two teams on a neutral field, and I agree.”

USC is banged up while also ranked just No. 99 overall in points per game (22.3), No. 123 in total yards per game (300.5), No. 76 in passing yards per game (220.3), No. 130 in rushing yards per game (80.2), No. 50 in 20-plus-yard plays (18) and No. 125 in sacks allowed (13.0).

He had concerns about Shane Beamer’s squad entering the year, and now winless in the SEC, he feels justified in his doubt.

“South Carolina cannot run it right now, they’ve got poor wide receiver depth, which was my biggest fear that I was told was going to be a moot point by certain message board posters that have let me down,” Pate continued. “(LaNorris) Sellers is relying on explosive plays, and when they work, they’re great. The problem is that the favorite here in this game, South Carolina, is 123rd in total yards and 130th in rush yards. I’m not feeling great about it, man. I’m not feeling great about it.”

Where South Carolina struggles, Kentucky thrives, particularly on the ground. Oh, and Coach Stoops is known for pulling a rabbit out of his hat every once in a while — the Ole Miss upset win in Oxford last fall being the perfect example.

On a scale of 1-10, he’s putting the Wildcats’ chances to cover at 9, and they just might win outright.

“There is a lot that points to Kentucky here, just to be frank with you,” Pate said. “Kentucky can run it, that is the weakness of the South Carolina defense right now. They just limited Ole Miss, they just played ’em a few weeks ago and notably, famously, Lane (Kiffin) failed to cover. I’m concerned, I’m putting a 9 on it. I think they can win outright. …

“This thing could easily go the way of Mark Stoops and Kentucky. He’s good for one of those per year.”

In the wise words of Gamecock killer Jojo Kemp, why not?

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2025-09-26