Kentucky (3-4) vs. Mississippi State (3-4) Preview

Game Facts

Mississippi State finished the 2010 season 9-4 and defeated Michigan in the Gator Bowl.

The Bulldogs enter the game Saturday 0-4 in the SEC and coming off a bye week.

UK defeated Jacksonville State last weekend 38-14.

Game will be played at Commonwealth Stadium in Lexington, KY

Game will be televised on FSN at 7:00pm EST.

Mississippi State snapshot

The Bulldogs are coming off a bye week and have been preparing for the Cats for two weeks. On the season, they are 3-4 and 0-4 in league play. The Bulldogs have defeated Memphis, Louisiana Tech and UAB. They have suffered losses to Auburn, LSU, Georgia and South Carolina. In my opinion, they could easily be 5-2 right now.

Make no bones about it, Dan Mullen and his team need a win. After a trip to Lexington, they face Tennessee-Martin, Alabama, Arkansas and Ole Miss. They need three more wins to earn bowl eligibility, so expect them fully prepared on Saturday. They are currently a 10-point favorite.

In their last game against South Carolina, the Bulldogs started Tyler Russell at quarterback over Chris Relf. While they lost, Russell played well enough for his team to win. Russell is a pro-style quarterback, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Dan Mullen uses Chris Relf against the Cats too.

In recent years, the Cats have struggled to stop Mississippi State’s rushing attack. Last season, they rushed for over 200 yards. Vic Ballard is a hard runner and is averaging over five yards per carry. I still have nightmares of Anthony Dixon running wild against the Cats two years ago. In that game, he rushed for 252 yards. On the season, the Bulldogs are averaging 180 rushing yards per game. That is good enough for No 38 nationally.

Mullen likes to run the spread and his quarterbacks spread the ball around. They have completed 30 more passes than UK on the season. Chad Bumphis is a name to remember on Saturday. Also, Mullen likes to utilize his running backs in the passing game. They rank No 94 in the nation with an average of 195 passing yards per game.

On defense the Bulldogs are tough up front. Both Josh Boyd and Fletcher Cox are quick. They lead the team in sacks and tackles for loss. The other two playmakers on defense are Johnthan Banks and Nickoe Whitley. Banks is a cornerback who has five interceptions on the season. Whitley is a safety and has four interceptions.

The Bulldogs ranks No 62 in the nation at stopping the run. They are allowing 152 rushing yards per game. Their pass defense ranks No 24 allowing 188 passing yards per game. Can UK establish the running game against a quality SEC opponent?

Kentucky snapshot

The Cats are coming off a much needed win against Jacksonville State. The team is banged up at key positions. Raymond Sanders continues to battle injuries and will not play Saturday. Also, fullback D.J. Warren will be limited. Therefore, look for the Cats to run more double tight end sets.

CoShik Williams carried the load last week for the Cats and will be expected to do so again this week. He rushed for 148 yards on 22 carries. Can he do it again? Last week he showed promise. He hit the holes hard, but he can’t do it alone. Jonathan George and Brandon Gainer will see action. George will serve as Williams’ back-up and Gainer missed practice time this week with the flu. This game presents a huge opportunity for the running backs. In my opinion, Gainer is the most talented. He has struggled with ball security in practice, but has shown flashes of being good. Hopefully he is ready when his number is called on Saturday.

Regardless of who carries the load, can Morgan Newton rally his team? Can anyone besides La’Rod King make a big play? The Cats need someone else to step up at wide receiver. Entering the season, I felt Brian Adams was poised for a breakout season. He hasn’t shown up yet. Newton must take a few shots down field simply to keep the defense honest. If the Cats get behind early, how will Randy Sanders respond? With the offensive line being healthy, the Cats must establish the ground attack.

Keys to the game

Neither team is exactly lighting up the scoreboards this season. The Bulldogs are averaging 24 points per game and the Cats just 16. UK hasn’t fared well against spread offenses and Dan Mullen’s teams have run all over the Cats in recent years. Could Saturday be different? Donte Rumph and Mister Cobble have done well against the run. UK’s defensive ends and linebackers must have a huge game or Vic Ballard may run wild.

Last week the Cats put pressure on the quarterback and forced two interceptions. Both Winston Guy and Cartier Rice missed opportunities or the Cats would have had more. Can Rick Minter’s unit apply pressure this week? Regardless, the Cats can’t miss opportunities against SEC teams if they expect to win.

Who’s going to step up at wide receiver? Joker Phillips talked about Brian Adams this week. He feels Adams is a guy they must incorporate into their passing game. How about E.J. Fields? He recorded seven receptions against Louisville and only three since. How about Gene McCaskill? He has recorded three receptions in four games. The Cats must find consistency in the passing game if they expect to win any of their remaining games.

Mississippi State Wins 30-17

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