Kentucky Basketball Film Breakdown - Louisville Cardinals

Losing to your rival is never fun. None of the natural caveats or rational reactions are worth much when the Kentucky Wildcats lose to the Louisville Cardinals. Does a game played on November 11th have much at all to do with how a team will look in March? Of course not, but don’t tell Big Blue Nation that. Does an eight-point loss to a Top 12 Louisville team on the road mean that Kentucky isn’t as good as we thought they were? Of course not, but don’t tell Big Blue Nation that. That is part of what makes this place special. However, it can also lead to some irrational hot takes as you read the message boards and Twitter. As usual, things are never as good as they seem or as bad as they seem. That will ultimately be the theme of this film breakdown.

It didn’t take long for the Cardinals to get going from beyond the arc. Both #3 Ryan Conwell and #10 Isaac McKneely got loose for early three-point shots to set the tone. Meanwhile, #0 Mikel Brown Jr. scored 20 of his game-high 29 points in the first half. Kentucky’s Denzel Aberdeen and a quick flurry of assists plus a four-point play from Jaland Lowe kept the ‘Cats in the game as they trailed 53-46 at the half. Louisville opened the second half much like they did the first. Three three-point shots due to defensive lapses by Kentucky led to what eventually was a 20-point lead. However, the Wildcats never quit. Lowe ended up going to the line for a one-and-one with a four point deficit, but missed the front end. Louisville went on to win 96-88.

As always, we’ve been hard at work in the KSR Film Room breaking down Kentucky’s latest contest. There were times when Tuesday’s game was excruciating to watch. The Wildcats were giving up open three-point shots, turning the ball over, and struggling to find a rhythm offensively. However, there were also times where things were clicking for the ‘Cats. Aberdeen and Collin Chandler were especially encouraging on the offensive end as Kentucky finished the game shooting a solid 12-34 (35.3%) from three-point range. The film showed some glaring issues, but also provided some light at the end of the tunnel. The sky isn’t falling in Lexington. This Kentucky can and will still be very, very good. Let’s dive on into the film breakdown and discuss Tuesday’s loss further.

The Good – Lowe’s First Half Playmaking + Overall Shot-Making

Jaland Lowe made some critical mistakes down the stretch. He turned it over twice late, missed the front end of a one-and-one that could have cut it to two points, and took a couple of questionable three-point attempts. However, in the first half, he was absolutely excellent. He changed the game when he came off of the bench and quickly put the Wildcats on top. The playmaking that fans expected from him was on full display. Additionally, Kentucky shot 12-34 (35.3%) from three-point range. It was only the sixth time in Coach Pope’s tenure that the ‘Cats actually shot 30+ three-point shots. Every team in the country would sign up for that percentage at that volume. Collin Chandler is emerging as an elite shooter for this team. Those are all positive coming out of the 96-88 loss at Louisville.

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The Louisville Cardinals were content with not guarding Mo Dioubate and Otega Oweh when they were spotted up in the weak side corner. That is how they were able to bait Oweh into shooting 1-6 from beyond the arc. However, in this clip, Dioubate smartly slid along the baseline for a lob. Kentucky needed to do much more cutting and less standing on the perimeter while the ball got driven.

Jaland Lowe quickly racked up three assists and converted a go-ahead four-point play when he came into the game. He was dominating Louisville’s ballscreen defense and using their pressure against them. In this clip, similar to the last one, he was helped by Andrija Jelavic who cut along the baseline. Not only is Jelavic more dangerous on the block than he is beyond the arc, but it also put the last line of defense for the Cardinals in a pickle between two blue jerseys. Lowe delivered a pinpoint, beautiful pass from well beyond the arc.

This is why you recruited Jaland Lowe. He attacks the paint, draws eight Louisville feet into the paint and 10 eyes to ball, and makes a pass out to Kam Williams for an open catch-and-shoot three. Lowe can draw a ton of attention as a playmaker. He got himself caught jumping to pass a couple of times on Tuesday night, but his teammates didn’t do him any favors either. Some more time together while help to improve the chemistry. Kentucky should still be very excited about Lowe as the Wildcats’ starting point guard.

Collin Chandler is now 22-42 from three-point range since March 1st of last season. That is 52.4%. Through three games this season he is 12-21 from deep. That is 57.1%. Nobody expected this team to have a Koby Brea or even a Jaxson Robinson. However, at least through a small sample size of three games, it looks like Chandler could deliver those type of numbers.

The Bad – Stuck in No Man’s Land Defensively

“Often wrong, but never in doubt.” That is a saying used to described making confident, decisive decisions without worrying about the repercussions. Obviously, with all the time spent on scouting opponents, it would be nice to see Kentucky make good decisions as well. However, being decisive and aggressive can often make up for being wrong from time to time. The Wildcats were neither sound in their decision-making nor aggressive on Tuesday night. It lead to the Louisville Cardinals attempting 40 three-point shots, collecting 20 assists, and only turning it over six times. That is not a recipe for success defensively.

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On one of the first defensive possessions of the game Otega Oweh helped off of #3 Conwell to swipe at #13 Fru on the short roll. The result was an easy catch-and-shoot three-point shot for Conwell. In this clip, Oweh is guarding #0 Brown Jr. on the perimeter but makes no attempt at making a play on the ball as #15 Khalifa bounces it to a cutting Conwell. The scouting report would agree with not helping off of Brown Jr. However, when he was willing to help off of Conwell for a Fru short roll why wouldn’t he help off of Brown Jr. for a much more dangerous Conwell? The possession-to-possession decision-making was bizarre on Tuesday night.

There isn’t much point in switching if you are just going to live in no man’s land after the switch. The Louisville Cardinals don’t run offense to throw it to #13 Fru. Therefore, even though it is a “mismatch” when Collin Chandler is guarding him, there shouldn’t be a whole lot of panic. Taking the Cardinals away from what they really want to do and instead play through Fru would be a win defensively. However, if you want to provide some help, then at least do so aggressively. Otega Oweh came all of the way across the floor off of #10 McKneely without actually impacting the ball at all. He needed to either stay home on the shooter or trap Fru hard enough to make him turn it over.

First of all, just switch this ballscreen. Aberdeen can stay with #13 Fru on the roll and Garrison can stay between #0 Brown Jr. and the basket. Then, off of the ball, Oweh is once again watching all of this happen. Earlier in the game he was very interested in taking away Fru on the roll while helping off of #3 Conwell. Maybe he learned his lesson, but the lack of consistency makes it feel like nobody knows exactly what they are supposed to be doing on a possession-by-possession basis.

The Ugly – Leaving Elite Shooters Wide Open

The Louisville Cardinals have one of the most potent offenses in college basketball led by a plethora of elite shooting threats. #3 Conwell, #10 McKneely, and #14 Wooley are all guys who will shoot over 40% from deep on a high volume. Kentucky let those guys get going early in the game by leaving them open for three combined three-point shots in the first five minutes of action. Then, they replicated that to start the second half. Letting the Cardinals get 40 three-point attempts up showcases an all systems failure on the defensive end of the floor.

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We’ve already referred to this clip a handful of times in this film breakdown. Here it is for all to see. #13 Fru is not a threat on the short roll. If he tries to do something with it from 18-feet that is a win for Kentucky defensively. Meanwhile, #3 Conwell is one of the most dangerous three-point shooters in the country. The decision to help off of him to simply swipe at Fru makes no sense. “Often wrong but never in doubt” would at least encourage Oweh to be more aggressive and try to steal the basketball. Getting stuck in between was a common theme for the Wildcats throughout the night.

Going under a handoff when guarding #10 McKneely is very risky business. Collin Chandler got caught too far off of McKneely and then made the mistake of going under the handoff. The result was an easy, wide open three-point shot for one of the best shooters in the country.

This clip was included in order to show why going “over” the handoffs matters. This isn’t something that coaches just talk about. It is said and done for a reason. Collin Chandler went over the handoff with a great deal of urgency this time around and it not only took #10 McKneely away from three, but also led to a missed shot for a much lower percentage shooter in #15 Khalifa.

As frustrating as it was to see Kentucky lose Louisville shooters three times in the first five minutes of the game, it was even more concerning to see the exact same thing happen to begin the second half. The mistakes were completely equal opportunity as well with many Wildcats’ making similar mistakes. This time it was Mo Dioubate’s turn. There is no reason for Kentucky to overly concerned about Collin Chandler guarding #1 Hadley in the post. Also, with five seconds left on the shot clock, you need to be tightening up to your man. That is even more true when your man is #3 Conwell. There is no explanation for Dioubate leaving Conwell like this.