KSR's 2025-26 Kentucky Basketball Season Predictions

by: KSR11/04/25

kentucky-basketball-season-predictions-2025-2026-ksr — Kentucky head coach Mark Pope speaks to his team during a timeout - Dr. Michael Huang, Kentucky Sports Radio

Kentucky Basketball’s 2025-26 season tips off Tuesday vs. Nicholls. We got a good look at this team in the exhibitions vs. Purdue and Georgetown, but starting tomorrow, the games count for real.

After making it to the Sweet 16 in Mark Pope’s first season as head coach, the Cats are a trendy Final Four pick in his second. With the biggest budget in the sport (reportedly $22 million), Pope rebuilt his roster with year one’s weaknesses in mind: depth and defense. Will it result in the program’s ninth national championship?

The KSR crew is ready to weigh in.

Number of Non-Conference Losses

Tyler Thompson: One, to St. John’s on December 20 in the CBS Sports Classic. As much as I’d like to be wrong, I think Rick Pitino still holds the psychological edge over Mark Pope, his former player. Maybe a strong showing by BBN in Catlanta can help the student become the master.

Jack Pilgrim: Two. The timing of the Gonzaga game in Nashville is tough, just three days removed from the late mid-week tip vs. UNC — and the Zags are looking for revenge after the Cats’ comeback in Seattle last year. I also think the emotions will get the best of Mark Pope taking on his mentor, Rick Pitino, in the CBS Sports Classic.

Jacob Polacheck: I’m going with one. That’ll be to Michigan State on Nov. 18 in the Champions Classic. Everyone remembers the stunning come-from-behind win over Duke last season, but this year, I see things going differently. Kentucky is still figuring itself out this season, so the one non-conference loss I’m predicting is coming early. Outside of that, I think Kentucky looks like the preseason top 10 team everyone expects.

Zack Geoghegan: Just the one, and it’s a trendy pick. Kentucky will come up short against Rick Pitino and St. John’s in Atlanta. Michigan State will be tricky, but Pope will have his boys ready to play in NYC after getting embarrassed last year against Ohio State.

Drew Franklin: I was asked to answer these questions while still riding high from the win over No. 1 Purdue in the preseason, so I said zero non-conference losses. I wasn’t in the best frame of mind to make these predictions objectively.

Best SEC win

Tyler Thompson: March 7 vs. Florida at home. The Cats will knock off the Gators on Senior Day to win their first SEC regular-season title since 2019-20. It will be especially sweet for Denzel Aberdeen, one of two seniors on the roster, after winning a title with the Gators last season.

Jack Pilgrim: January 31 at Arkansas. Coach Cal earned his bragging rights in year one post-divorce, and now, Pope gets to respond down in Fayetteville — Hawg Nation’s Super Bowl. This Kentucky team has the physicality and toughness to pull that one off.

Jacob Polacheck: I’ll give you a two-for-one. Alabama AND Florida. In maybe my hottest take so far, I’m picking Kentucky to go a combined 3-0 against Alabama and Florida. Last year, Nate Oats’ squad had Kentucky’s number all year long. I’m expecting Mark Pope to turn the tide this year, beating Alabama on their home floor on Jan. 3. Two wins against the defending national champs as well would be quite the shock.

Zack Geoghegan: Similar to my friend Jacob, I’m going with a two-for-one, but against the same team. Kentucky will take down the defending national champion Florida Gators both at home and on the road. Denzel Aberdeen comes up clutch down the stretch in both, which will result in Todd Golden saying something dumb in one of the postgame press conferences. Pope will be 3-0 against Florida going into the SEC Tournament.

Drew Franklin: Kentucky’s best SEC win will be the one that clinches the SEC regular season championship. It’s the last game of the regular season, against Florida.

Number of SEC losses

Tyler Thompson: Four: at Tennessee, at Arkansas, at Florida, and randomly at Texas A&M. Kentucky’s toughest SEC games mostly take place on the road this season, mostly on Saturdays, which means even rowdier crowds. These Cats are experienced, but no team is immune to stumbling on the road, especially in the SEC.

Jack Pilgrim: Two, matching the non-conference number for four total in the regular season. Those will be two road losses at Tennessee on January 17 and at Florida on Valentine’s Day — no love for Denzel Aberdeen in his return to the O’Dome.

Jacob Polacheck: Three. Those losses will come against Missouri on Jan. 7, Tennessee on Jan. 17, and Auburn on Feb. 21. The Missouri loss will be one of the biggest shockers of the entire season, with Kentucky looking vulnerable at home.

Zack Geoghegan: I’m picking four, three of coming on the road against Tennessee, Vanderbilt, and the new guy, Bucky McMillan, at Texas A&M in a stunner. The lone home loss is one I won’t predict, because I think it’ll come when we least expect it. But the ‘Cats will still exact revenge on Arkansas and John Calipari on the road after last season’s disappointing loss in Rupp.

Drew Franklin:

Lock in for the 2025 Kentucky Basketball season with KSR Plus! We’re giving you behind-the-scenes intel you won’t find anywhere else. Join the most vibrant online community in the BBN during Mark Pope’s second season.

Shoot your Shot/Hot Take

Tyler Thompson: Kentucky will go undefeated at home. As mentioned, the Cats’ hardest SEC matchups are mostly on the road this season; they should take care of business at Rupp Arena (even if they failed to do so in the exhibition vs. Georgetown).

Get the Daily On3 Newsletter in your inbox every morning

By clicking "Subscribe to Newsletter", I agree to On3's Privacy Notice, Terms, and use of my personal information described therein.

Jack Pilgrim: Andrija Jelavic starts for Kentucky by the time postseason play rolls around. He’s far too skilled to keep off the floor and he’s only growing more and more comfortable with each appearance. The 6’11” sophomore ultimately becomes a go-to shooting threat at the four next to future lottery pick Jayden Quaintance.

Jacob Polacheck: Denzel Aberdeen explodes for a 35-point game this season. Kentucky looked like a different team without Aberdeen against Georgetown, after he looked superb against Purdue. Aberdeen is going to be a key piece for the Cats this year, and I expect him to have at least one dominant performance where he drops a massive scoring night. For extra points, I’ll pick that to happen on Jan. 10 against Mississippi State.

Zack Geoghegan: Kentucky goes into the KFC Yum! Center to smack Pat Kelsey and the Louisville to the tune of a 20-point win. The ‘Cats won’t even need a perfect game from Lamont Butler to make it happen either. Mikel Brown Jr. will still ball out for the Cardinals, but his teammates will buckle under the limelight as six ‘Cats reach double-figures.

SEC Tournament Finish

Tyler Thompson: SEC Tournament Champion. The Cats will knock off Arkansas for the title, a feel-good moment for the BBN. Even if John Calipari still says the SEC Tournament doesn’t matter afterward, the fans who celebrate on Broadway will beg to differ.

Jack Pilgrim: SEC Tournament Champion. Last year’s group could (and should) have done it in Nashville, but injuries derailed the season late to kill that Broadway magic. That changes this time around, Kentucky rolling into postseason play as the most dominant team in the SEC after winning the league, finally watching the confetti fall again inside Bridgestone Arena.

Jacob Polacheck: Hey, Jack Pilgrim. I’m gonna copy you. Kentucky will be the SEC Tournament Champs. Last year, UK needed to win one game to alleviate BBN’s fears about going one-and-done in Nashville again. This time, expectations are higher. I’m expecting Kentucky to be hitting its rhythm come March. They’ll win the SEC Tournament and enter March Madness as one of the hottest picks on the board.

Zack Geoghegan: I won’t go as far as my friends above me, but I will say that Kentucky does reach the SEC Tournament championship game on Sunday. What happens after that is up to the basketball Gods.

Drew Franklin: Playing with a fully healthy roster and the school’s first league championship since 2020, Kentucky will take over Nashville for the SEC Tournament, running through the table through Sunday’s championship game.

NCAA Tournament Finish

Tyler Thompson: National Runner-Up. Indianapolis has not been kind to Kentucky in recent years, but the Cats will return to the Circle City and get their first win there in nine years (there’s that number again) to advance to the national championship game. Even if Kentucky doesn’t win it all, bringing home a banner in Mark Pope’s second season is an incredible accomplishment.

Jack Pilgrim: National Champion. I feel confident about a return to Indianapolis for the Final Four, but can they exorcise some demons in a city that has been very, very bad to Kentucky in recent years by finishing the job? Too much talent, too deep, too long since 2012. It’s time, folks. Embrace the push for banner No. 9 in Pope’s second year — and the 30th anniversary of his 1996 title squad.

Jacob Polacheck: Unfortunately, I don’t have quite the confidence of my other coworkers, Mrs. Thompson and Mr. Pilgrim. My prediction is that Kentucky loses in the Elite Eight, despite being a No. 1 seed. That loss will be one that makes Kentucky fans upset. That could be because of a bad play call, a bad referee call, or any number of factors, but it will cause some debate on the KSBoard.

Zack Geoghegan: Kentucky will have a clear path to the Elite 8 before tripping up in soul-crushing fashion with an overtime defeat. (This is my attempt at a reverse jinx)

Drew Franklin: Number nine.