Kentucky Derby 151: Picks and Live Long Shots

The moment we’ve been waiting for is almost here. Kentucky Derby 151 is 24 hours away. Who will wear the garland of roses and secure a win in the first jewel of the Triple Crown? Let’s see which long shots could bring home a big payday in the biggest race of the year.

The Kentucky Derby Field

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The Pick

8 Journalism is the deserving favorite. Michael McCarthy’s colt has improved and won every single start since its debut. He overcame trouble in the Santa Anita Derby and proved that he can make more than one big move in a race. It’s hard to find clear vulnerabilities in Journalism.

The race sets up well for the stalker. There are a handful of speed horses to his inside, which should allow Umberto Rispoli to position Journalism just off the pace, right where the horse wants to be.

Journalism deserves the title as morning line favorite, but that is as much of an indictment on the rest of the field as it is a credit to his past success. Only one horse, Final Gambit, enters the Kentucky Derby on a winning streak. When given an opportunity to separate themselves from the competition, this group of three-year-olds has failed.

That is why Journalism is the choice to win Kentucky Derby 151.

Live Long Shots

If you’re taking the favorite, the key to winning money is finding price horses that could hit the board. 21 Baeza might not be one of them. The last horse to enter the field has received glowing reviews for posting an outstanding speed figure in his last start. I’m not as convinced as the wise guys. Baeza ran a perfect race and still got caught by Journalism. Is he going to get another perfect trip from the farthest outside post, and why should I believe he has the stamina for another furlong? I’m out on Baeza.

3 Final Gambit had the fastest final furlong of any horse in the field at Turfway Park, a place that has been a proven training ground for live long shots. D. Wayne Lukas clearly sees something in 5 American Promise, giving the horse extra time to prepare for this race, which deviates from the trainer’s typical style. People are sleeping on Steve Asmussen’s 14 Tiztastic, but this closer is bred for the distance and could be closing late. 19 Chunk of Gold is another horse that has steadily improved and I have a sneaky suspicion that he could sneak onto the board, like Two Phil’s, who was also ridden by Jareth Loveberry. This year’s “I can’t leave it out of my exotics” horse is 18 Sovereignty, even though I’m not his biggest fan.

5-Horse Trifecta Box: 3 Final Gambit, 5 American Promise, 8 Journalism, 14 Tiztastic, 18 Sovereignty ($30)
Exacta Bomb: Key Journalism over Final Gambit, Rodriguez, Chunk of Gold, American Promise, Tiztastic ($10)

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