Kentucky drops to a No. 5 seed in ESPN's latest Bracketology

Is Kentucky the next 5-12 upset in the NCAA Tournament as arguably the most underperforming cost-per-player team in college basketball this season? ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has NOT loved the Wildcats’ start in 2025-26, dropping all the way down to a No. 5 seed in his latest Bracketology following losses at Louisville and to Michigan State in the Champions Classic.

The Cardinals and Spartans, on the other hand, sit comfortably as No. 2 and No. 3 seeds, respectively.

This path would begin for Mark Pope’s squad in Greenville against No. 12 seed Akron, followed by a brutal second-round matchup vs. No. 4 seed Alabama, potentially. That’s just to get to the second weekend. From there, it’d likely be a rematch vs. No. 1 seed Purdue in the Sweet 16, followed by, again, a rematch vs. No. 2 seed Louisville in the Elite Eight for a spot in the Final Four. That’s all in the Midwest Region in Chicago.

Brutal, to say the least.

Elsewhere, Arizona, Duke and Houston make up the other No. 1 seeds, followed by Gonzaga, UConn and Michigan making up the other No. 2s.

As a whole, the SEC is projected to have the second-most NCAA Tournament bids with 11 coming off the league’s record-shattering run in 2025. Outside of Kentucky and Alabama, Florida (No. 3), Tennessee (No. 4), Auburn (No. 5), Vanderbilt (No. 6), Arkansas (No. 6), Missouri (No. 8), Ole Miss (No. 9), Texas (No. 11) and Georgia (No. 12) make up the other conference representatives.

The Big Ten leads all leagues with 12, followed by the SEC, then the Big 12 and ACC with seven apiece, followed by the Big East with four and the WCC with two.

Take a look at the complete bracket (while hoping things don’t unfold this way) below:

Kentucky dropped to No. 18 in the latest Coaches Poll and No. 19 in the AP Poll, right in the ballpark of a No. 5 seed on paper. The analytics, though, still favor the Wildcats, who sit at No. 10 overall with the No. 11 offense and No. 12 defense, according to KenPom. That would put Pope’s squad firmly in No. 3 seed territory — just like his first group a year ago.

That’d be much better, but still not good enough knowing how much talent is on this roster. Next week starts the narrative shift back to what it should be when the Cats take on four ranked opponents in five games before the end of December.