UK Fans of the Day want to cheer up with Bowl Projections

A few weeks ago, who thought we’d be turning to Kentucky Football to cheer us up after a basketball game? Back-to-back wins over Auburn and Florida have brought bowl eligibility within reach for Mark Pope’s program, a surreality that was punctuated on Sunday with the Cats appearing in ESPN’s latest bowl projections.

It feels like we could all use a break from thinking about the Louisville loss, so let’s focus instead on the possibilities that lie ahead for the football Cats.

The Path to Bowl Eligibility

Kentucky’s win over Florida brought the Cats’ record to 4-5 with three games remaining. FCS juggernaut Tennessee Tech is undefeated and should not be overlooked, but Kentucky should take care of business vs. the Golden Eagles on Saturday, Senior Day, at Kroger Field.

That leaves road games at No. 14 Vanderbilt (Nov. 22) and No. 20 Louisville (Nov. 29). Kentucky will be the underdog in both matchups, but the same was said about the Auburn and Florida games. If you use the latest SP+ Rankings, the projected spreads in those games would be Vanderbilt -13 and Louisville -9. Beating Vanderbilt on Diego Pavia’s Senior Day at a renovated and suddenly happening FirstBank Stadium is the tougher matchup of the two — although Auburn took the ‘Dores to overtime last Saturday.

Even if the Cats lose that game, they’ve got a chance to clinch bowl eligibility at Louisville, the site of so many improbable Kentucky wins. The Cats have won four straight in Cardinal Stadium, going back to 2016. As I’m sure you’re aware, Louisville is coming off a 29-26 overtime loss to Cal at home, a game in which the Cards were favored by 18.5 points. Strange things happen in this rivalry, and would it really shock you to see Kentucky beat Louisville to clinch bowl eligibility after Vince Marrow jumped ship to join the enemy? If I weren’t so mad at Disney over its dispute with YouTube TV, I’d try to sell them the rights.

So, there is a viable path to a postseason, Kentucky’s first since 2023. ESPN Analytics gives the Cats a 53% chance to go bowling. Where could they go? Let’s take a look.

Liberty Bowl

Fri., Jan. 2, 4:30 PM, ESPN, Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)

Who wants to go walking in Memphis? That’s where both of ESPN’s prognosticators, Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach, have the Cats spending January 2. The Liberty Bowl is one of the “Pool of Six” bowls, along with the ReliaQuest Bowl (Tampa), Gator Bowl (Jacksonville), Texas Bowl (Houston), Duke’s Mayo Bowl (Charlotte), and Music City Bowl (Nashville). Given the pecking order in the SEC and the fact that Kentucky’s record would be, at best, 7-5, but more realistically 6-6, a Florida bowl is probably out. The Cats have frequented the Music City Bowl, as recently as 2022. Former SEC West teams typically end up in the Texas Bowl, making Oklahoma and Missouri good candidates. So, the Liberty Bowl and Duke’s Mayo Bowl could be what’s left.

Kentucky hasn’t been to the Liberty Bowl since 2009. The Cats played in the Belk Bowl, now known as the Duke’s Mayo Bowl, in 2019. Given how this season has gone, I think Kentucky fans would celebrate either.

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Duke’s Mayo Bowl

Fri., Jan. 2, 8 PM, ESPN, Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)

What better way to celebrate a turnaround than a mayo bath? As mentioned, Kentucky played in Charlotte six years ago when this bowl was known as the Belk Bowl. Now, it’s got a much more fun sponsor, Duke’s Mayo, and tradition, five gallons of mayonnaise being dumped on the winning coach’s head (with $10,000 going to the charity of his choice). Even if you still think Mark Stoops needs to be gone with this result, there’d be some satisfaction in watching him get covered in mayo.

The Athletic’s Scott Dochterman has Kentucky playing Clemson in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl in his latest projections. Stoops vs. Dabo for all the mayo sounds like a fun way to celebrate the New Year.

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Texas Bowl

Sat., Dec. 27, 9:15 PM, ESPN, NRG Stadium (Houston, Texas)

On3’s Brett McMurphy has the Cats playing Houston in the Texas Bowl, which takes place in Houston on Dec. 27. As mentioned, the Texas Bowl typically takes an SEC team that played in the old West Division, but UK could still end up there based on how everything shakes out.

The only time Kentucky has played a bowl game in Texas? The 1952 Cotton Bowl, a 20-7 victory over Texas Christian. A very late kick in NRG Stadium two days after Christmas would be a little weird, but beggars can’t be choosers, especially when you consider how this season has gone. Plus, the winning team gets to eat giant BBQ ribs, so that’s fun, I guess? And a little gross?

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Kentucky Football Bowl Projections – Week 12

With three games left, there is still a lot of football to be played, but for now, it’s nice to have something fun to talk about on the football side, especially on the day after a depressing basketball loss.

• ESPN’s Kyle Bonagura: Liberty Bowl vs. Iowa State (Jan. 2, 4:30 PM, ESPN, Memphis)
• ESPN’s Mark Schlabach: Liberty Bowl vs. Kansas State (Jan. 2, 4:30 PM, ESPN, Memphis)
• The Athletic’s Scott Dochterman: Duke’s Mayo Bowl vs. Clemson (Jan. 2, 8 PM, ESPN, Charlotte)
• On3’s Brett McMurphy: Texas Bowl (Dec. 27, 9:15 PM, ESPN, Houston)

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