Kentucky will need to overcome bye game weakness in pivotal swing game versus South Carolina

A pivotal game against South Carolina looms for Kentucky. The Gamecocks are fresh off a blowout home loss to Vanderbilt and might not have star quarterback LaNorris Sellers this weekend against Missouri. The Gamecocks could enter that game with an 0-2 mark in league play and a ton of tough games remaining. There’s no denying that the Week 5 matchup will be a huge swing game for both sides.

Kentucky will need to overcome one of its biggest weaknesses as a program under Mark Stoops. The Wildcats are not good off of a bye week.

Game Date	Betting Spread	Result	Record (ATS Record)
9/28/2013	Kentucky (+11) vs. No. 20 Florida	Gators 24, Cats 7	0-1 (0-1 ATS)
10/24/2013	Kentucky (+11) at Mississippi State	Bulldogs 28, Cats 22	0-2 (1-1 ATS)
9/27/2014	Kentucky (-17) vs. Vanderbilt	Cats 17, Commodores 7	1-2 (1-2 ATS)
11/29/2014	Kentucky (+12) at No. 24 Louisville	Cards 44, Cats 40	1-3 (2-2 ATS)
10/15/2015	Kentucky (+1) vs. Auburn	Tigers 30, Cats 27	1-4 (2-3 ATS)
10/22/2016	Kentucky (+4) vs. Mississippi State	Cats 40, Bulldogs 38	2-4 (3-3 ATS)
10/21/2017	Kentucky (+12) at Mississippi State	Bulldogs 45, Cats 7	2-5 (3-4 ATS)
10/20/2018	Kentucky (-11) vs. Vanderbilt	Cats 14, Commodores 7	3-5 (3-5 ATS)
10/12/2019	Kentucky (-7) vs. Arkansas	Cats 24, Hogs 20	4-5 (3-6 ATS)
11/9/2019	Kentucky (-1) vs. Tennessee	Vols 17, Cats 13	4-6 (3-7 ATS)
11/14/2020	Kentucky (-17) vs. Vanderbilt	Cats 38, Commodores 35	5-6 (3-8 ATS)
10/30/2021	Kentucky (PK) at Mississippi State	Bulldogs 31, Cats 17	5-7 (3-9 ATS)
10/29/2022	No. 19 Kentucky (+11) at No. 3 Tennessee	Vols 44, Cats 6	5-8 (3-10 ATS)
10/28/2023	Kentucky (+3) vs. No. 21 Tennesse	Vols 33, Cats 27	5-9 (3-11 ATS)
10/12/2024	Kentucky (-12.5) vs. Vanderbilt	Commodores 20, Cats 13	5-10 (3-12 ATS)
11/16/2024	Kentucky (-41) vs. Murray State	Cats 48, Racers 6	6-10 (4-12 ATS)

The Cats are just 6-10 outright with an atrocious 4-12 ATS mark in games directly off of a bye. Against SEC foes, UK is just 5-9 outright and 2-12 ATS. UK lost as favorite off a bye week for the first time last season when the program dropped a home game to Vanderbilt. UK never seems to play its best football after the bye week.

That needs to change in Week 5.

Using numbers in ESPN’s SP+ rankings, Kentucky is currently projected to be a betting underdog in every game but the home contest against Florida. The Cats are projected to be a touchdown-plus dog against Georgia, Texas, Tennessee, and Auburn in addition to a road dog against Vanderbilt and Louisville. The South Carolina game is setting up to potentially be the most winnable power conference game on the schedule.

To win that game, the program will have to do something it’s rarely done — play well after the bye.