Projecting Spreads: What the betting lines could look like for Kentucky in 2024

GC-232985 — (Photo by Dr. Michael Huang | Kentucky Sports Radio)

Tailgating will take place in the Kroger Field parking lots in 14 weeks when Kentucky opens the 2024 college football season with Southern Miss making the trip up north. The offseason is inching closer to its end date.

Earlier this week, ESPN’s SP+ rankings were updated to include the spring transfer portal additions. Kentucky checks in at No. 25 overall and No. 14 in returning production.

Using the latest SP+ rankings and adding two points for home field advantage, I’ve put together some spread projections for every UK game outside of the FCS matchup again Murray State in November. The Wildcats will be a double-digit dog multiple times and will have plenty of toss-up games.

Kentucky’s projected spreads

Southern Miss at Kentucky (-28) | Aug. 31
South Carolina at Kentucky (-9) | Sept. 7
Georgia at Kentucky (+22) | Sept. 14
Ohio at Kentucky (-25.5) | Sept. 21
Kentucky (+16) at Ole Miss | Sept. 28
Vanderbilt at Kentucky (-24) | Oct. 12
Kentucky (-1) at Florida | Oct. 19
Auburn at Kentucky (-4.5) | Oct. 26
Kentucky (+8.5) at Tennessee | Nov. 2
Kentucky (+19) at Texas | Nov. 23
Louisville at Kentucky (-3.5) | Nov. 30

Kentucky is a projected three-plus touchdown favorite against Southern Miss, Ohio, Vanderbilt, and Murray State. The Wildcats are a three-possession underdog against Georgia, Ole Miss, and Texas. Kentucky is a touchdown-plus favorite against South Carolina and a touchdown-plus dog against Tennessee. There are three true toss-up games on the schedule against Florida, Auburn, and Louisville.

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In this exercise last May, Kentucky was in five true toss-up games with spreads under a touchdown. The Wildcats went 3-2 in those contests with wins against Florida, Mississippi State, and Louisville. The Wildcats failed to cover the spread in their two matchups as a double-digit dog against Georgia and Alabama. The Wildcats also dropped a one-possession game to Tennessee in a contest where the Vols were a projected 7.5-point favorite.

Assuming Kentucky handles its business as a touchdown-plus favorite, the Wildcats will have four wins banked. Two wins in remaining toss-up gains will be needed to get to bowl eligibility. Come Thanksgiving Sunday, the season will be determined a success or failure based on the toss-up game record. The Wildcats went 3-3 in those last year. A winning record is likely needed to get to 8-4 or better.