Kentucky must fix bad turnover margin in 2022

Kentucky won 10 football games in 2021 despite ranking No. 125 nationally in turnover margin (-11). That simply is not easy to do.

Despite that inefficiency, Kentucky was able to go 5-1 in one-score games last fall on their way to a top 25 finish. A few of those tight games were made close due to heavy turnover deficits. The problems just weren’t on one side of the ball.

Will Levis threw too many interceptions (13) and had a very high PBU/INT rate (14.2%) while averaging just 27.2 throws per game. On the ground, Chris Rodriguez Jr. had ball security issues throughout the season, and Kentucky was fortunate that only 10 of 18 fumbles were lost.

However, the defense also needed some improvement.

There was a lack of ball production in pass coverage and that led to just nine interceptions, but six of those came in the last four games. The defense was only able to force seven fumbles and only recovered three of the total 11 fumbles by foes last season.

Kentucky has to become more opportunistic this year on defense and more steady on offense. The Wildcats aren’t being bogged down with last year’s results, but it has been a point of emphasis at the Joe Craft Football Training Facility.

“We weren’t fantastic last year with the turnovers and turnover margin,” Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops said on Monday. “We don’t harp on it, I don’t want our team to play scared, I want them to play fast, aggressive, physical, but we have to eliminate mistakes or you’re not going to beat a quality team like Miami [Ohio] or anybody. You can’t beat anybody unless you stop beating yourself. We’ve been disciplined, we’ve been good at this camp, but last year, we were negative a bunch in turnovers and we have to get the rectified right from the start.”  

In Kentucky’s three losses last season, the Wildcats only lost the turnover margin once and that was against Mississippi State (-4). That helped turn a close game into a three-possession margin in the second half. A pick-six thrown by Levis was the ultimate difference in the three-point home loss to Tennessee. A missed opportunity at a fumble return took away a potential game-changing play for Kentucky in the first half against Georgia.

The margins are thin in college football, and Kentucky must take advantage of opportunities. In the last two games of 2021, the Wildcats showed some improvement by winning the turnover margin against Louisville (+1) and Iowa (+3). Before that point, Kentucky had only won the turnover margin against one Power Five foe (LSU, +1) on the year. The Wildcats are hopeful that will transition to a better turnover number in 2022.

Turnover fortune could be what helps Kentucky get over the hump and host UGA for the SEC title at Kroger Field on Nov. 19.