Matchups that can give Kentucky the edge over Iowa

The 2021 year has come and gone as the calendar has turned to 2022. Before we move on from the college football season, Kentucky still has some unfinished business to attend to.

The Wildcats are set to meet No. 15 Iowa at the Citrus Bowl for one of five games on New Year’s Day. Kentucky is a small favorite, but this is a contest where the margins could be thin in between the white lines.

KSR has the matchups that will determine the winner.

Kentucky’s run game against Iowa’s light box

The Wildcats enter the postseason fresh off four consecutive rushing performances of 225-plus yards. No Iowa opponent reached 200 yards rushing in the regular season.

The Hawkeyes stop the run just about as well as anyone in college football, but Iowa goes about it in differently. Under defensive coordinator Phil Parker, Iowa wants to prevent the big play first.

Iowa will utilize a ton of two-deep safety looks and will often roll into quarters coverage. That means eyes on the ball, but the secondary is going backward first instead of forwards. That could mean an advantage for Kentucky.

However, Iowa excels at taking on blocks, keeping linebackers free, and making tackles. The Hawks can stop the run with a light box, but only Georgia has done that against Kentucky this season.

Chris Rodriguez Jr. caught his groove as the season ended, and Will Levis has proven to be an effective rusher. For Kentucky to have success, the Wildcats must be able to run the football.

Whoever wins the establish the run battle when Kentucky has the ball will have the heavy advantage at Camping World Stadium.

Inefficient passing game versus leaky pass defense

The pass defense numbers have not been kind for Brad White’s unit. The Wildcats have had some secondary struggles this season and were lit up by some good quarterbacks in SEC play.

However, Iowa’s passing game struggles might be bigger.

Spencer Petras is a strong-looking quarterback at 6-foot-5 and 233 pounds, but the San Rafael (Calif.) Marin Catholic product has struggled this season. The pocket passer is completing just 56.6 percent of his passes, is averaging 6.5 yards per attempt, and has a woeful passing success rate of 37.2 percent.

Meanwhile, Petras has been dealing with injuries in the last half of the season and may not start in the Citrus Bowl. Kentucky’s biggest weakness just happens to not be a strength for Iowa.

If the Hawkeyes are unable to take advantage of the Wildcats through the throw game, it will be a long Saturday afternoon for the Big Ten program.

Wan’Dale Robinson vs. Iowa’s zone coverage

Iowa might have the best pass defense in college football. The Hawks lead the nation in interceptions (24) and foes are completing just 55.7 percent of their passes. Defensive coordinator Phil Parker has a strong unit.

However, Iowa did show some holes in the last part of the season as the injury bug arrived in Iowa City. The Hawkeyes will be without starting cornerback Matt Hankins and that could be a big deal.

All season, Kentucky’s passing game has force-fed Wan’Dale Robinson. The Nebraska transfer is No. 9 nationally in receptions (94) and has seen 133 targets over 12 games. Without Josh Ali in the lineup, Levis may be looking to No. 1 more often than usual.

Scheming Robinson open will be essential to Kentucky’s offensive attack at Camping World Stadium. The Hawkeyes are very good at what they do, but there are some holes in the middle of the field. If Levis can get Robinson the ball in space, the Wildcats could create some explosive plays that will be needed to put drives together against this stingy Iowa defense.

Field position

Iowa won 8 games against Power Five competition this year despite scoring two touchdowns or less in 9 of 11 contests. The Hawks desperately need short fields to be productive on offense.

Those short fields are created by special teams and turnovers. Kentucky must do its best to limit each. The Hawkeyes thrive on complementary football, and the Wildcats must do their best to take that away.

Fielding punts, ball security, and covering kicks will have a huge say in who wins the Citrus Bowl.