Kentucky opens as near touchdown favorite over Louisville

We are still 13 weeks away from the start of Kentucky football season, but the preseason content train is rolling downhill. Early point spreads are being released at a rapid pace as everyone gets ready for Labor Day weekend, but some lines are even being dropped for rivalry week.

Kentucky won’t meet Louisville on the football field until the Saturday after Thanksgiving, but South Point is now giving you the option to make an early wager on the game as the Wildcats open up as 6.5 point favorites over Louisville.

Open numbers college football games of the year ⁦@southpointlv⁩ ⁦@RampartCasino⁩ ⁦@CasaBlancaNV⁩ ⁦@VirginRiverNV⁩ pic.twitter.com/88M4UAGbRU

— Chris Andrews (@andrewssports) June 3, 2022

For a reference point, let’s take a look back at the previous spreads in the series with results included in the Mark Stoops era:

• 2013: No. 7 Louisville at Kentucky (+14) — Cards 27, Cats 13
• 2014: Kentucky (+12) at No. 24 Louisville — Cards 44, Cats 40
• 2015: Louisville at Kentucky (+5) — Cards 38, Cats 24
• 2016: Kentucky (+27) at No. 11 Louisville — Cats 41, Cards 38
• 2017: Louisville at Kentucky (+9) — Cards 44, Cats 17
• 2018: No. 17 Kentucky (-17) at Louisville — Cats 56, Cards 10
• 2019: Louisville at Kentucky (-3) — Cats 45, Cards 13
• 2021: Kentucky (+3) at Louisville — Cats 52, Cards 21

As the data shows, Stoops has a pretty good record in the Governor’s Cup series. The Wildcats 5-3-1 against the spread and have won 4 of 5 in the series as the offense has lit up the scoreboard. Kentucky reached the 40-point threshold in five of the meetings, and Louisville is averaging just 23 points per game when Lamar Jackson was not suited up. In a twist, Louisville was a surprising favorite last year and got housed by Kentucky from start to finish.

However, the key detail to look at with these lines is some of the other spreads involving Scott Satterfield’s program. The Cards are a small home favorite over Pittsburgh and a small home dog to NC State. Both teams many — myself included — have inside preseason top 25 rankings. Meanwhile, Clemson is laying just 4.5 more points than Kentucky in a matchup with UofL.

The Cards should be better than most expect thanks to a return of Malik Cunningham, a solid offensive line, and a lineup that could include up nearly 10 super seniors with some other traditional seniors in the mix. Satterfield has a roster that could surprise, but Kentucky is still ahead according to the bookmakers. That Governor’s Cup spread tells us that Vegas has the Wildcats somewhere around the top-15 in their power ratings.

If the Wildcats live up to that ranking, we could be in for a very fun couple of months in the fall.