How Kentucky Wins the Governor’s Cup

Kentucky and Louisville’s trajectories over the past six games have been somewhat different. The Cardinals’ defense has been dominant which has led to winning five out of their last six games and a Top 25 ranking. Their winning ways have likely helped to solidify Scott Satterfield’s job going forward and momentum is certainly in Louisville’s favor. 

Kentucky’s record over that same time frame is 2-4. The Wildcats have limped into the Governor’s Cup and have been on a downward spiral that’s deflated hopes for what many projected to be a magical season. Some of that energy can be salvaged by beating Louisville. A loss would be devastating.

Much of the Cats’ demise has been on the offensive side of the football. Kentucky has averaged a lowly 15 points per game over the past six contests. Additionally, third-phase errors have existed on a weekly basis. The wind has been taken out of the BBN’s proverbial sails. Recent happenings have led to Kentucky scrambling for respectability and a better bowl location. 

The Governor’s Cup is a newer rivalry in relation to other traditional grudge matches across the nation. The freshness of the trophy and game hasn’t dampened a deep sense of hatred between the two programs and fan bases. Saturday should be an emotional affair with Kentucky saying goodbye to several seniors including the beloved Chris Oats. Energy, fire, and juice shouldn’t be lacking on Saturday. If it is, there are much larger problems than schemes and play designs. The underlying question is can the Cats turn emotion into efficiency? That’s not easy to do and the numbers don’t paint a flattering picture. Let’s break this game down by goals for all three phases. 

OFFENSE

Louisville’s defense does everything good that the Kentucky offense does bad. This gives me great pause in predicting the game’s victor. The Cardinals dipped into the Portal and built an attacking 3-3-5 defense that relies on creating havoc. The veteran-laden defense is one of the most improved units in the country and will stunt, blitz, twist, and bring all kinds of pressure in order to confuse and overwhelm the Wildcat front. 

This attacking philosophy has led to the Cards leading the nation with 41 QB sacks. UK has allowed 40 sacks which ranks last in the SEC. The visitor’s 81 tackles for loss is good enough to be ranked 11^th in the country. The Cats have given up 81 TFLs. Louisville has forced 28 turnovers. UK’s turnover margin is -4. See a pattern here? 

Louisville has some Dudes on defense. YaYa Diaby’s 10 TFLs and 8 sacks will be a handful. So will Yasir Abdullah’s 13 TFLs and 8 sacks. In other words, the Big Blue Wall will need to play their best game of the season on Saturday. There is encouragement after the group played its most effective football of 2022 against the vaunted Georgia defense. Guard Jager Burton, center Eli Cox, and left tackle Deondre Buford played their guts out against the Dawgs. Let’s get winning goals for Saturday. 

Get Ahead and Stay Ahead

Louisville has significantly outscored their opponents in the second half during their late-season winning streak. Kentucky has not exactly started off hot throughout the season. The Cats can’t get behind early and be forced into certain passing scenarios in order to play catchup. A quick start is mandatory. The objective is to have a touchdown or more lead going into halftime. 

Score

See above. Kentucky has averaged 15 points per game over the past six contests and has gotten off to sluggish starts for the majority of the season. This is especially disconcerting since Louisville is allowing just 19 points per game. A major point of inefficiency lies within the Red Zone. Kentucky is scoring touchdowns on 48% of their RZ drives. Additionally, the Cats have also turned the football over on multiple occasions inside the twenty. Kentucky will need a 70% or more number in the RZ to have a chance. Kentucky has to exceed its season average of 21.7 points per game by at least a touchdown. The unfortunate RZ touchdown problems coincide with the struggles on the PAT/FG team. That unit has been wobbly, to say the least, so touchdowns are mandatory on Saturday. 

Levis on the Run 

Louisville will pressure, blitz, twist, and stunt in order to force the issue across the line of scrimmage. Havoc can also lead to opportunity if addressed properly. Will Levis ran for 26 yards against Georgia. The Wildcat signal caller will need to run for 60 yards in the Governor’s Cup for Kentucky to win. Levis destroyed the Cards on the ground a year ago. But, this is a different season and a much more forceful defense than previous matchups. 

DEFENSE

Brad White has dialed up some jewels in 2022. His unit’s best effort may have been a week ago against number one Georgia. The question for Saturday is will quarterback Malik Cunningham play or not? Much like Will Levis, the Louisville QB is banged up. He’s missed time which has led to Brock Domann earning starts and quality time.  

Domann has been good enough to win games by completing 51% of his passes and playing ball control, complimentary football. The Cards are a different team in 2022. Normally winning by an explosive offense, this year’s edition is a defense-first squad with excellent special teams. Saturday’s outcome could come down to which offense makes the fewest errors. That leads to concern. Scott Satterfield’s team has played within itself and found ways to win. The Wildcats have found ways to lose five contests. Let’s get into goals for the UK defense. 

Keep the QB in the Pocket

Malik Cunningham is much more of an explosive runner than Brock Domann. Cunningham is the team’s leading rusher with 561 yards and 11 touchdowns. The backup has extended plays with his legs and is a capable runner. The best-case scenario for the Wildcats is to force UofL into certain passing situations. 

Kentucky has not recorded a high number of QB sacks. The Cats have 15 on the season which is last in the SEC. But, the front seven has pressured opposing quarterbacks and coverage has been solid. The return of DeAndre Square would assist the output. The goal here is for the Cunningham/Domann combo to have less than 50 rush yards for the game. 

Make Louisville One Dimensional 

See above. Louisville has a dynamic playmaking receiver in Tyler Hudson who has 63 catches for 951 yards and a score. UK has done a tremendous job, outside of Tennessee, in limiting the opponent’s feature pass catcher. Georgia All-World TE Brock Bowers managed just two receptions last week. Marshon Ford is another pass catcher to keep an eye on. The TE has 28 receptions for 392 yards and 2 touchdowns. Forcing Louisville to throw early and often could lead to a complimentary manner to win this game. Kentucky is allowing 176 pass yards per outing and 321 total. Both numbers are Top 3 in the SEC.

SPECIAL TEAMS

The UK offense vs. Louisville defense matchup worries me; the same can be said of the special teams. The Cardinals are terrific in the third phase and have won games based on special teams’ performances. Kentucky has struggled. This mostly applies to the PAT/FG unit. Coverage teams have been solid. Converting third-phase points has been a point of contention. Louisville kicker James Turner nailed four field goals last week in the Cards’ upset win over NC State. He’s 19/21 for the season which has to be an uplifting confidence boost for a team that normally plays in close games. 

Kentucky’s PAT/FG team has been atrocious. The Wildcats have attempted twenty field goals and made just 12. This was highlighted last week when Kentucky had a chance to cut Georgia’s lead to a one-possession game late in the fourth quarter. The football bounced back to the holder, laces were in, kick failed. Unfortunately, this has been more of the norm instead of an outlier. I expect this game to be highly contested with two excellent defenses taking center stage. Goals are: 

Snap-Hold-Kick

See above. See weekly. 

Return Score

With what appears a potential uphill proposition on paper given the Cats’ offensive struggles and the Card’s defensive prowess, Kentucky could need an extraordinary special teams play to win the game. This could come in the form of a punt or kick return for six points. A third-phase possession theft would go a long way in this year’s Governor’s Cup.

What Does All This Mean? 

Analyzing this game has presented an internal battle between logic and hope. Logic says that the Cats’ likelihood to score points on this Louisville defense is slim. This assessment is based off an eleven-game body of work. The BBN has been waiting for Scangarello’s unit to “get right” for weeks now. It hasn’t. 

The hope is that a glimmer of offensive momentum from a week ago can carry over to the Governor’s Cup. The Cats were explosive at times and drove the football the length of the field on select drives. But, only one of those trips inside of Georgia’s 30-yard line resulted in a touchdown. Rivalry games can come down to Red Zone efficiency, turnover margin, and special teams. All three factors favor Louisville.

Further hopefulness is that Will Levis channels the 2021 version of himself against the hated rivals. Moreover, additional promise is that Chris Rodriguez Jr. closes out a record-breaking career with a record-breaking day. Even more optimism is that the Cats turn the Cards havoc into big offensive plays vs. man-to-man coverage downfield. Barion Brown had a world-beating outing vs. Georgia and Dane Key is a pass-catcher that can get vertical. Again, we’ve been waiting on this offense to produce for weeks now. There’s one more chance to excel with a full complement of players. With a disappointing season, I’m not foreseeing the bowl game roster to exactly be at full strength. 

Saturday projects to be a low-scoring affair which usually favors the team with the most effectual third phase. This game is a classic fight between logic and hope. My hope is that the Cats can go against the trend and score 30+ points and not be consumed by Louisville’s havoc. Momentum favors the visitors. History is in favor of the home team. We’ll see.