It’s Raining, It’s Pouring, It’s . . . another dreary Oaks Day, presented by NYRA Bets
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The weather will most certainly be the topic of the day for the first Kentucky Oaks with an unlimited attendance capacity since 2019. While that’s unfortunate for a myriad of reasons, an off-track can also produce enticing odds on horses perhaps more likely to handle the conditions than others. We’ll allow that premise to guide our handicapping analysis of the Oaks day stakes races.
Race 5 – the Grade 3 Modesty
As a two-year-old, Fluffy Socks won a stake over a yielding course at Pimlico, then finished second by a nose in the Chelsey Flower at Belmont. She picks up Irad Ortiz Jr. and is certainly eligible to improve in her second start of the year. Her stablemate Bleeker Street is perfect in 5 lifetime starts, most recently over the “good” Tampa turf when taking the grade 2 Hillsborough. Hendy Woods looked to be climbing the ladder last summer after a runner-up effort by a half-length to Regal Glory in the De La Rose at Saratoga and a 4-length victory in the One Dreamer at Kentucky Downs. She then looked like she didn’t belong in the First Lady at Keeneland, and her comeback race this year at Fair Grounds did not impress. If she can get back to her late-summer form, she could be competitive.
Race 6 – the Grade 1 La Troienne
This very much has the look of a two-horse race on paper with the edge going to Shedaresthedevil who has not been beaten in 5 prior efforts over the Churchill strip and will dictate the pace in this contest from the outset. It is unknown how she’ll handle the off-going. Pauline’s Pearl did get past the favorite nearing the wire of the Azeri at Oaklawn, and the regally-bred daughter of Tapit does have a win in her only effort over a sloppy race track.
Race 7 – the Grade 2 Alysheba
Olympiad may well end up controlling the pace in a race without much gas. The son of Speightstown is in excellent form having reeled off 3 straight triple-digit Beyers, and his pedigree suggests he will relish a sloppy track. Fulsome is proven with wins over a sloppy track as well as a victory over the local strip in last year’s Matt Winn. Max Player, while capable, may not be cranked for his best in his first start since the Breeders’ Cup.
Race 8 – the Grade 2 Edgewood
Dolce Zel has performed quite well over softer courses, including a nice runner-up effort after a poor start in the Appalachian at Keeneland. The winner of that contest, Spendarella, would likely be odds-on in this spot. You’d have to get fairly creative to get past the likely favorite here.
Race 9 – the Grade 2 Eight Belles
Matareya completely dominated the Beaumont at Keeneland and should get a great trip sitting just behind the top flight. Ain’t Easy is certainly worthy of consideration cutting back to one turn.
Race 10 – the Grade 2 Turf Sprint
At 20/1 on the morning line, Chasing Artie intrigues a good bit here. He captured his stakes debut in the Palisades last spring at Keeneland over a course with some give in the ground, then took down the My Frenchman at Monmouth last July over a yielding course. He took his 4-yo debut in decent company against the likes of Shekky Shebaz – a Saratoga stakes winner who finished 3rd in the 2019 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint. He’d certainly need to step up and run the race of his life to find the wire first today, but he’s got an excellent partner in Jose Ortiz and stranger things have happened over soft grass courses. The Lir Jet has not fared well over less than ideal course conditions in the past, but the addition of Rispoli in the saddle is interesting, and the Irish import could make a big jump forward in his second start off an extended layoff. Pyron put together a pair of good runs over the winter at the Fair Grounds. He picks up Flavien Prat and looks to have a big shot in this spot. Arrest Me Red has done very little wrong in his career as a turf sprinter, having gone 5 for 6 life-time in such events. The Pioneerof the Nile colt may well find himself at the head of affairs under Irad Ortiz Jr. and appears capable of taking this field from pillar to post. Just Might appeared to be in fine fettle prior to a mid-pack finish in the Shakertown at Keeneland last month. A return to his winter form would put him right in the mix.
Race 11 – the 148th Running of the Kentucky Oaks
Echo Zulu seemed to disappoint the entire racing universe when WINNING the Fair Grounds Oaks by a nose over the re-opposing grade 3 stakes winner Hidden Connection in her sophomore debut. The daughter of Gun Runner (the hottest sire on the face of the planet) is perfect in 5 career starts. She decimated a highly regarded field in the Breeders’ Cup last November, and her victory in the grade 1 Spinaway in her second career start at Saratoga last summer came over an off-track. Her doubters question whether she wants the nine panel trip. Her mother was best around one turn, and her better siblings were also better at sprint distances – so that query is fair. She’s certainly capable of dictating the pace, and her draw just outside the other primary speed in Yuugiri is advantageous for Joel Rosario – allowing him the option to assess the pace prior to committing to the front end. At 4/1 on the morning line, and with connections who have been here and done it before, the two-year old champion feels like a steal.
Nest and Kathleen O are stealing all the headlines leading up to the race – and for good reason. Combined, they are 8 for 9 lifetime and both have victories over wet tracks on their resumes. Both are certainly capable of winning, and Nest’s pedigree suggests she’ll relish the conditions, but the strong preference is for the more proven and more forwardly placed champion at better odds.
As for a few who could juice up the exotics, Nostalgic is certainly trending in the right direction for the ever capable Bill Mott. She’s also the only filly in the field with a win at this distance. Hidden Connection ran perhaps the best race of her career over the local strip when taking the grade 3 Pocahontas last fall. She couldn’t quite get past the champ in New Orleans, but the added distance could potentially help her today. While a definite bounce candidate after a big forward move in the Santa Anita Oaks, Desert Dawn could just be improving at the right time. She has made favorable impressions in the mornings since shipping in from California. Shahama is another who comes into this race unbeaten, but it’s highly unlikely she saw anything like this field in the Middle East. The daughter of Munnings has also been training quite well since her arrival in Louisville, and with Todd Pletcher and Flavien Prat anything is possible.
Best of luck with all your wagers, and don’t forget to pack an umbrella!
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