Dogs are howling in Kentucky vs. Ole Miss series

Sep 28, 2024; Oxford, Mississippi, USA; Kentucky Wildcats defensive back DJ Waller Jr. (5) reacts after breaking up a pass attempt during the first half against the Mississippi Rebels at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

The first SEC game of the season has arrived and Kentucky finds itself as a big home underdog. Kentucky is currently a 10-point home dog with a total of 50.5 at BetMGM against No. 20 Ole Miss. This is a spot both programs have performed well at in recent seasons.

Kentucky is 7-3 against the spread (ATS) as a home underdog since 2019 with three outright wins. The Cats are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven as a dog. Ole Miss is 10-5 ATS as a road favorite under Lane Kiffin with a a 4-2-1 ATS mark as a double-digit favorite. Both teams perform well in this spot.

But the recent trends in this series tell us that the home underdog is most likely to be the right side. In the last five meetings in this series, the dog is 5-0 ATS with four outright wins.

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Game Date	Spread	Result	Underdog Record
11/5/2011	Ole Miss (-3) at Kentucky	Cats 30, Rebels 13	1-0 outright (1-0 ATS)
11/4/2017	Ole Miss at Kentucky (-3)	Rebels 37, Cats 34	2-0 outright (2-0 ATS)
10/3/2020	Ole Miss at Kentucky (-6)	Rebels 42, Cats 41 (OT)	3-0 outright (3-0 ATS
10/1/2022	Kentucky at Ole Miss (-6)	Rebels 22, Cats 19	3-1 outright (4-0 ATS)
9/28/2024	Kentucky at Ole Miss (-15)	Cats 20, Rebels 17	4-1 outright (5-0 ATS)

Saturday afternoon will the 47th all-time meeting between these two long-time SEC programs. Ole Miss owns a 30-15-1 series lead with a 7-3 record in the meetings after the last quarter-century. However, a clear trend has emerged in this series.

Play the dog.

Every meeting between these two programs since Mark Stoops arrived in Lexington has come down to the wire. Under Stoops, UK has almost always played well in this early season big spot. The Cats are 8-4 ATS in SEC openers under the long-time head coach.

Recent series history tells us that this next meeting will be decided in the fourth quarter.