Kentucky Opens as 29-Point Favorite Over Louisiana Monroe
The Circa lines from Las Vegas are out for the first time this season, and Kentucky opens as a 29-point favorite over Louisiana Monroe in Week 1. The over/under is set at 56.
Earlier this summer, some early-season lines had Kentucky listed as 29-point favorites, but now it is o-fically official.
This is a pretty intriguing line for Week 1. UK has famously under-performed in Week 1, only covering the Week 1 spread twice in the Mark Stoops era.
The caveat is ULM is one of the worst teams in college football. The Warhawks only covered the spread three times during their 0-10 campaign a season ago–losing by at least 29 four times. On a recent episode of 11 Personnel, KSR’s own Nick Roush even thinks the Warhawks will cash under 1.5 wins in Terry Bowden’s first season with the program.
Last season Kentucky went 4-5-1 against the spread, which was in the bottom half of the SEC in 2020. A far cry from the 10-3 ATS record Kentucky carried in 2019. However, three of the four games the ‘Cats covered in 2020 did come at home.
In the Mark Stoops era, Kentucky is 16-17 ATS in the non-conference and 16-18 as the home favorite.
Kentucky has covered 29 points nine times in the Stoops era, one of those games coming against the Warhawks in 2014 (and twice against Louisville–just for fun.)
This line feels fishy; I’m not comfortable either way. With a new offense, new quarterback, new regime, my gut feels like 29 is a tall order for Week 1, but it’s a line I’m looking to avoid.
Bet responsibly.
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