Kentucky opens as slight underdog on the road at Louisville

Will-Levis-UL-69144 — Photo by Dr. Michael Huang | Kentucky Sports Radio

If Kentucky wants to go bowling, it will have to earn its sixth win as a road underdog. Despite Louisville losing three straight and the injury bug getting the best of the Cardinals coming off a disastrous 38-6 loss at SMU, Vegas still likes Jeff Brohm’s group at home.

Depending on your sportsbook of choice — we prefer BetMGM here at KSR — UofL has opened as a 3.5- to 6.5-point favorite in the Governor’s Cup. Quite the range with a ton of movement on the first day of odds being released, but all favoring the red and black in the bitter rivalry matchup.

A look at the various odds on the Cats and Cards:

DraftKings: Louisville -4.5
FanDuel: Louisville -3.5
Hard Rock Bet: Louisville -4.5
Fanatics Sportsbook: Louisville -4.5
ESPN BET: Louisville -3.5

The over/under sits at 47.5 points across the board.

Elsewhere, ESPN Analytics gives Louisville a 52.9 percent chance of beating Kentucky to keep the Wildcats on the outside looking in during bowl season. ESPN’s Football Power Index gives UK, ranked No. 38 nationally following a five-spot drop post-Vanderbilt, a 46.7 percent chance to earn six wins with a projected win-loss record of 5.5-6.5 — just short of a toss-up against the Cardinals, giving them the home edge.

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UofL was without starting quarterback Miller Moss, running backs Isaac Brown and Keyjuan Brown, wide receiver TreyShun Hurry and linebacker Antonio Watts, among others, in the blowout loss at SMU. UK dealt with a similar loss in enemy territory on Saturday, falling 45-17 while dealing with plenty of injuries in the Wildcats’ own right, especially on the defensive side of the football.

Louisville dominated in the 2024 edition of the Governor’s Cup, winning 41-14 in Lexington after opening as a similar one-score favorite. The Cardinals rushed for 358 yards and four touchdowns, led by star back Isaac Brown with 178 yards and two scores himself. Cutter Boley did not play well in the start, throwing for 48 yards and two interceptions while completing just 6/15 passes before being replaced by Gavin Wimsatt down the stretch.

Time to flip the script in a sea of red with bowl eligibility on the line for the blue and white.

Can the Cats get it done? It’ll take an underdog effort.