Kentucky opens as slight underdog against visiting Florida Gators

by: Zack Geoghegan7 hours agoZGeogheganKSR

Nov 1, 2025; Auburn, Alabama, USA; Kentucky Wildcats wide receiver Kendrick Law (1) escapes the tackle of Auburn Tigers linebacker Bryce Deas (16) during the fourth quarter at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Reed-Imagn Images

Despite picking up its first SEC win of the season against Auburn less than 24 hours ago, Kentucky will not be favored in next weekend’s conference game in Lexington.

According to our friends at BetMGM, the Wildcats have opened up as a 3.5-point underdog when the Florida Gators come to Kroger Field on Saturday, November 8 (7:30 p.m. ET | SEC Network). The point total has been set at 45.5.

Kentucky (3-5; 1-5 SEC) narrowly escaped The Plains with a 10-3 win over Auburn, which resulted in the Tigers firing head coach Hugh Freeze by Sunday afternoon. Meanwhile, Florida (3-5; 2-3 SEC), which already fired its head coach earlier in the season and is operating with an interim coach running the show, is coming off a close 24-20 loss to No. 5 Georgia.

Looking at the matchup predictor by way of ESPN Analytics, the advanced stats give Florida a 58.8 percent chance to pull off the road win. Sticking with the worldwide leader, Kentucky went up a few spots in both the Football Power Index and the SP+ Rankings thanks to the Auburn win. UK rose three spots in both the FPI and the SP+ to No. 50 and No. 63 nationally, respectively.

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The FPI now projects Kentucky to finish with an average win-loss record of 4.8-7.2, giving the Wildcats a 17.6 percent chance to reach the six-win mark and 1.9 percent chance of winning out the final four games of the regular season. The SP+ ranks UK as having the nation’s 78th-best offense, 44th-best defense, and 57th-best special teams unit.

As for Florida, the Gators still went up in the rankings after playing Georgia to a one-score loss. UF went up two spots in the FPI to 25th, while the SP+ saw them go up one spot to 39th. Kentucky will be searching for its first two-game win streak since September 2024.

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