Kentucky projected to be top-10 program over next 25 years -- but behind Louisville?

Anyone in their right mind would name the Kentucky Wildcats a consistent top-10 program in college basketball over the next 25 years, just as they were in the previous 25 — and the 25 before that. That doesn’t mean every season is guaranteed to be excellent or that you can’t swing and miss on coaches, but more often than not, you’re in a position to succeed. As polarizing as the Mark Pope hire was initially, his year-one results were inarguable, leading the program to eight top-15 victories to tie an all-time NCAA record while also bringing the program back to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2019.

He responded to that success by building one of the deepest rosters in college basketball entering 2025-26, headlined by the return of All-SEC guard Otega Oweh. It’s also one of the most expensive rosters in college basketball, a sign of overwhelming internal support for Pope among the powerful boosters funding it all.

CBS Sports named Kentucky the No. 6 program of the last 25 years, behind Duke at No. 1, Kansas at No. 2, UConn at No. 3, North Carolina at No. 4 and Michigan State at No. 5.

“With the fourth-most wins (651) since 2000, Kentucky stakes its claim as the highest-ranked SEC team and just barely misses the exclusive top-five club,” CBS Sports’ Kyle Boone wrote. “The Wildcats are one of only 12 programs to have won a title since 2000 (2012) and have won nine regular-season SEC championships the last 25 seasons.”

How about the next 25 years? Kentucky is back in the top 10, obviously, but what if I told you the Wildcats are projected to be worse?

Coming in at No. 9 overall, your Pope-led Cats.

“Development, depth and deft evaluation of the transfer portal will be key to Kentucky under coach Mark Pope — a stark contrast to the one-and-done emphasis deployed under coach John Calipari,” Boone wrote in the follow-up piece. “While I don’t think it will lead UK to top-five status the next 25 years, I do think it’ll lead to plenty of success and perhaps a title or two. The Wildcats are as appealing as ever and they will continue to produce some of the best players in the sport.”

Before I give you the rest of the list, I just want to give you a second to take a deep breath and remember it’s just one guy’s opinion on your beloved Wildcats. And there is a very real chance you disagree with just about everything on the list, maybe outside the top two — and that’s even worth an argument. But it doesn’t make his stance any more accurate than yours because it’s a national publication and he probably gets paid good money to share those thoughts.

I’ll share the list, followed by my own thoughts.

1. Kansas
2. Duke
3. Louisville
4. Alabama
5. Indiana
6. North Carolina
7. Michigan
8. UConn
9. Kentucky
10. Houston
11. Texas Tech
12. Purdue
13. Florida
14. Arizona
15. BYU
16. Auburn
17. Texas
18. UCLA
19. Maryland
20. Illinois
21. Gonzaga
22. Michigan State
23. Ohio State
24. Wisconsin
25. Memphis

The Jayhawks and Blue Devils, sure. I’ll hear that argument — although his hunch of “KU has the history and the financial backing to pluck any coach from their post” is easier said than done, as Kentucky just experienced. But he’s lost me from there.

Louisville? In the top three? Because of Pat Kelsey responding well after the Kenny Payne error? The same Pat Kelsey still looking for his first NCAA Tournament win at 0-5? And this is coming from someone who genuinely likes the guy and believes he’s great for the Cardinals and this rivarly — maybe too good. But better than Kentucky over the next 25 years good? Get out of here.

The list continues with Nate Oats, who is currently coaching at a football school and the best that program will get at 50 years old, living in the height of its success. How long will he last there before going to a program truly invested in basketball? Or the NBA? It will only go downhill from there, so 25 years is a hell of a commitment to include the Crimson Tide among the top four.

From there, Indiana is a laughable inclusion using nothing but vibes. Genuinely. “That stems from a belief in first-year coach Darian DeVries.” Are we serious? Then more vibes with North Carolina hopefully maybe probably figuring things out after getting rid of Hubert Davis. And the same with Dusty May leading Michigan back to the promised land because “the arrow of the Wolverines is pointing straight up.” UConn, again, blindly following Dan Hurley’s lead, despite just admitting he considered getting out of coaching entirely this offseason.

For a 25-year exercise, all of these calls feel awfully shortsighted.

Let’s take a look at the ranking criteria for a better idea of how we got to these results.

“They were formulated by accounting for past success and program history, but also by their commitment thus far to pumping in resources along with the coaching acumen and leadership of those running the respective programs.”

Past success and program history? The winningest program in history rings a bell — to me, at least. Commitment to pumping in resources? Kentucky may have the most expensive roster in college basketball with a new practice gym in the works, anchoring a new entertainment district also in the works in Lexington. Whether Mark Pope is leading the charge 25 years from now or not, the next coach or two will be set up for long-term success in ways others on this list would be on their hands and knees begging for.

No. 9? It’s gonna be a no from me, dawg — unless you’re talking about banner no. 9 next spring.