SEC Tournament Rundown: Kentucky needs to win out

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Aaron Bradshaw On Kentucky's Win Over Arkansas

Another fun weekend in SEC basketball wrapped up on Saturday night. We are now entering the final week of the regular season. All 14 teams in the conference only have two games left to play. March has arrived. Let’s have some fun.

Selection Sunday will take place two weeks from today. Before we get there, another SEC Tournament will be held in Nashville. Kentucky still has a path to a double-bye, but landing in the No. 5 slot and beginning the tournament on Thursday afternoon appears to be the clubhouse favorite entering the last week of the season.

KSR is here to show you where things stand, what the projections are calling for, and what needs to happen for Kentucky to get the best seed possible. Let’s dive in.

Current Standings

Tennessee (13-3)
Alabama (12-4)
South Carolina (12-4)
Kentucky (11-5)
Auburn (11-5)
Florida (10-6)
Mississippi State (8-8)
LSU (8-8)
Ole Miss (7-9)
Texas A&M (7-9)
Arkansas (5-11)
Georgia (5-11)
Vanderbilt (3-13)
Missouri (0-16)

Projected Final SEC Standings

Using KenPom‘s projections, we have a great idea on what to expect to occur when final seeding takes place for the SEC Tournament. Tennessee is now the clear favorite to open the tournament as a No. 1 seed.

Tennessee (14-4)
Alabama (14-4)
Auburn (13-5)
South Carolina (13-5)
Kentucky (12-6)
Florida (11-7)
Mississippi State (9-9)
LSU (9-9)
Ole Miss (8-10)
Texas A&M (8-10)
Arkansas (6-12)
Georgia (6-12)
Vanderbilt (3-13)
Missouri (0-18)

Tennessee gets the No. 1 seed due to head-to-head record (2-0) against Alabama. Auburn gets the No. 3 seed due to head-to-heard record (1-0) against South Carolina. Kentucky settles in at No. 5. Mississippi State, Ole Miss, and Arkansas also win tiebreakers due to head-to-head record.

Upcoming Schedule

Tuesday

Ole Miss at Georgia
Alabama at Florida
Auburn at Missouri

Wednesday

Tennessee at South Carolina
Vanderbilt at Kentucky
Mississippi State at Texas A&M
LSU at Arkansas

Saturday

Kentucky at Tennessee
South Carolina at Mississippi State
Florida at Vanderbilt
Arkansas at Alabama
Texas A&M at Ole Miss
Missouri at LSU
Georgia at Auburn

One more win gives Kentucky a No. 5 seed floor

Kentucky will host Vanderbilt on Senior Night on Wednesday. A win in the home finale at Rupp Arena would give the Wildcats 12 conference wins and set the floor for SEC Tournament seeding heading into the final weekend.

Due a loss over the weekend, the best Florida can finish is 12-6. Kentucky owns the tiebreaker over Florida thanks to a better winning percentage against Alabama. The Cats finished 1-0 against the Tide and the Gators are 0-1 with another meeting upcoming. Neither team has beaten Tennessee or South Carolina and both own head-to-head wins over Auburn.

That means Kentucky will playing on Thursday afternoon at 3:30 p.m. ET at worst when the SEC Tournament starts with a win over Vanderbilt.

Kentucky can no longer earn the No. 1 seed

Up until this past weekend, Kentucky had owned a slim chance to gain the No. 1 overall seed in the SEC Tournament. That was eliminated on Saturday.

Despite being just two games back of Tennessee with two games to play including a head-to-head contest with the Vols, the Cats are eliminated. Tennessee plays South Carolina in the mid-week. A win by the Gamecocks would get them to 13 conference wins and tiebreakers would force Kentucky into the No. 2 seed if the Vols, Cats, and Gamecocks all finished at 13-5.

Kentucky could also find itself into the No. 3 seed. The Wildcats own tiebreakers over both Alabama and Auburn heading down the stretch. If UK finished in a 13-5 tie with both and saw South Carolina drop to 12-6, there is a path to the No. 2 seed.

Kentucky needs South Carolina to lose

South Carolina sits at 12-4 with remaining games against Tennessee (home) and Mississippi State (away). That is not an easy stretch for Lamont Paris’ team.

If the Gamecocks lose out, Kentucky will be a safe bet to get a double-bye.

Just one win would get Kentucky to 13-5 and the Cats would own a tiebreaker against Auburn if Bruce Pearl’s team won out. That could give the Wildcats the No. 3 seed.

There are still paths to the double-bye for Kentucky, but John Calipari’s team needs some help.

Just win, baby

To keep it simple, Kentucky still does own its double-bye destiny. The Wildcats are tied with Auburn in the standings at 11-5 with two games to go. If both teams finish at 13-5, Kentucky would own the tiebreaker and get the No. 4 spot.

Therefore, the Cats control their own destiny when talking about double-bye seeding. Anything from seeds 2-5 will be on the table with win over Vanderbilt first. Just win.