Kentucky has had success beating teams three times

On Friday night, Kentucky will make its debut in the 2022 SEC Tournament after earning a double-bye with the No. 3 seed. When the Wildcats take the floor in Tampa, John Calipari’s squad will be facing an opponent they are very familiar with.

Vanderbilt and Alabama will face each other for the second time this season after the Commodores spoked Georgia on Thursday night in Tampa. Back on Feb. 22, the Tide snuck out a 74-72 win at Memorial Gym. However, Kentucky faced both twice earning a sweep in each meeting.

FiveThirtyEight dug into the data this week and discovered third meetings can sometimes be very much a toss-up — especially when the squads are evenly matched. Under John Calipari, Kentucky is 4-3 in extra meetings proving that it is somewhat difficult to beat a team for the third time.

Track record of success

Under Calipari, Kentucky has had many moments in both the NCAA Tournament and SEC Tournament where the Wildcats have seen a conference foe for a third time after beating them twice in the regular season. There has been some success.

In 2012, Kentucky beat No. 22 Florida in the SEC Tournament semifinals 74-71 after defeating the Gators twice in blowout fashion during the regular season. The Wildcats did the same thing to the Gators in 2015 knocking off Billy Donovan’s final team consecutively in the season finale and SEC Tournament quarterfinals.

One year later, Kentucky beat Alabama for a third time to begin their run to another SEC title. The Wildcats had the Tide’s number that year winning each meeting by at least 16 points. In 2017, Kentucky again started another SEC Tournament with a three-game sweep as the Wildcats knocked off Georgia.

Vanderbilt? Yes, Vanderbilt.

In third meetings, Kentucky owns a 6-3 record under John Calipari with SEC programs. Surprisingly, Vanderbilt and Kevin Stallings own two of those wins.

At the SEC title game in 2012, Kentucky entered the game with a 22-game winning streak and just one loss on the season. The Wildcats were the favorites to cut down the nets at the Final Four. Yet, UK could not secure the SEC Tournament title in New Orleans.

A bad shooting night led to a 71-64 defeat to unranked Vanderbilt as the Commodores surprisingly won the rebounding battle against the No. 1 ranked Wildcats. That would serve as Vandy’s only SEC Tournament title as Stallings and his team earned a No. 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

One year later, the same thing happened again.

Squarely on the bubble, Kentucky opened the SEC Tournament in Nashville as the No. 2 seed in 2013 and faced Vanderbilt on Friday night. Another awful shooting night (36.8% from two) led to a 15-point loss and put the Wildcats in the NIT just one year after winning a national championship.

Turns out, Stallings was a hard coach to beat three times.

Rare SEC game in the Big Dance

The SEC has been unbelievably good in 2022, but the league also had a banner year in 2019. Kentucky and Tennessee were national title threats throughout the season. Meanwhile, LSU surprised everyone and won the league with a 16-2 conference record.

However, everyone slept on Auburn.

After taking a 27-point loss to Kentucky at Rupp Arena, Bruce Pearl’s Tigers reeled off 11 wins in a row with a home win against Tennessee turning into four wins in four days to claim the 2019 SEC Tournament title. The Tigers would go on to upset No. 1 seed North Carolina in the Sweet 16 to set up a clash with No. 2 seed Kentucky in the Elite Eight.

After falling behind early, Pearl’s club clawed back. Kentucky tied the game late and was led by P.J. Washington‘s 28 points and 13 rebounds, but the Wildcats simply had no answers for guard twosome Bryce Brown and Jared Harper who went for a combined 50 points and produced six total steals.

That year, it took the hottest team in basketball to prevent Kentucky from another three-game sweep.

Round two is here

No matter what happens on Friday at Amalie Arena, Kentucky will have to beat a conference foe for the third time this season to snap their two-game losing streak at the SEC Tournament and keep their No. 1 seed hopes alive.

The challenge could be difficult.

Alabama is a top-25 squad at KenPom and should be no worse than the No. 6 seed line heading into the weekend. The Crimson Tide own wins over Gonzaga and Baylor and their unique style of play makes them a dangerous opponent if the treys are falling.

Meanwhile, Vanderbilt has an All-SEC performer in Scotty Pippen Jr. who is averaging 20.3 points, 3.5 rebounds, 4.1 assists, and 2.0 steals per game in 32.4 minutes per night. The junior is one of the best offensive creators in the conference, and Kentucky has struggled to slow down volume-heavy lead guards all season.

However, Vanderbilt is the inferior team to Alabama. The data tells us that Kentucky’s chances of winning will be higher if the Wildcats draw the Commodores. If it’s the Crimson Tide, the game feels like a true toss-up.

Despite having a 14-4 conference record, Kentucky has a stiff challenge coming on Friday night.