Situational football was critical to success for Kentucky in 2021
Down at Camping World Stadium, Kentucky knocked off No. 15 Iowa to clinch the program’s second 10-win season in four years. A lot came together for the Wildcats to reach this milestone.
In the offseason, Mark Stoops checked a lot of boxes when he decided to make a change on offense. Liam Coen brought in a new scheme that allowed Kentucky to record a top-25 yards per play finish for the first time since 2007. The transfer portal brought Will Levis, Wan’Dale Robinson, and Dare Rosenthal into the program. Each had a huge impact on the offense.
Defensively, Josh Paschal stayed healthy for the regular season and was one of the best defensive line players in college football. Yusuf Corker and DeAndre Square provided leadership in the backend that allowed the Wildcats to survive a three-game losing streak in SEC play.
A lot of things came together for Kentucky football in 2021, but the Wildcats still must win in the margins to have successful seasons. Among Kentucky’s 10 wins, 50 percent of those came by one score. The Wildcats use a ball-control offense and want to shrink the game. That will create a ton of close contests.
Therefore, Kentucky must win in certain key areas. Throughout the year, the Wildcats could not turn games with turnovers as the team finished with a margin of minus-11 over 13 games. Therefore, Kentucky must be able to dominate in other areas.
Situational football tended to go Kentucky’s way more often than not in 2021.
Middle Eight
The Middle Eight is a commonly used term in the NFL and with some in the analytics community. The last four minutes of the second quarter and the first four minutes of the third quarter is an area where the game can flip. Teams tend to prefer to receive the ball in the second half to get the chance at consecutive possessions in the game.
In the loss to Tennessee, a late fourth-down gamble by Kentucky against Tennessee allowed the Vols to steal a field goal before half. Those three points ended up being the difference in the 45-42 shootout.
Against South Carolina, the Wildcats got a key field goal before the break. Against Florida, Dan Mullen decided to run out the clock instead of pushing the ball before the first half ended. Versus Mississippi State, a second-half field goal drive and forced turnover turned a close game into a blowout to begin the third quarter.
Games are won and lost in the Middle Eight. In the Citrus Bowl, that is what won Kentucky the game.
The Wildcats went on a long drive that milked over eight minutes of clock in the second quarter that turned into three points. A few snaps later, an interception by D’Eryk Jackson gave the Wildcats a short field and three more points.
In the Middle Eight, Kentucky executed and that allowed the Wildcats to win 10 games in 2021.
Kentucky consistently produced late stops
Brad White’s third defense at Kentucky did have some issues. The Wildcats were stout against the run for most of the season, but pass defense just was not up top par in 2021.
Therefore, some teams were able to score points and collect a bunch of yards against the Wildcats. In the three losses, foes averaged 35.3 points per game and 7.83 yards per play. Yet, when needed, the Wildcats found ways to get stops in critical situations.
Clinging to a one-touchdown lead against Missouri, the Wildcats produced a turnover on downs as a drive got started for the Tigers. Against South Carolina, Kentucky came up with multiple stops in the fourth quarter. The defense gave up only three points in a pair of fourth-quarter red zone opportunities to beat Florida.
The same was true at the Citrus Bowl.
After seeing the Hawkeyes put together consecutive touchdown drives, Kentucky produced their only three-and-outs of the game when the team had to have them. Then, DeAndre Square‘s interception clinched 10 wins for the program.
With the game on the line, Kentucky’s defense consistently made plays all season. Even against Tennessee, the Wildcats found a way to get a stop late to give the offense one final chance at victory.
That is winning in the margins.
Opening scripts
In his first year calling plays at the FBS level, there was a lot of unknowns to figure out with Liam Coen. The Sean McVay playbook is a proven entity, but every play-caller has to find their own rhythm and formula.
In 2021, Coen proved that he can game plan as well as any offensive coordinator in college football.
The Wildcats scored a touchdown in their opening possession in 8 of 13 games this season. Against ULM, Florida, and New Mexico State, Kentucky scored a touchdown on its second possession. Only Georgia and Mississippi State kept Kentucky’s offense out of the endzone to begin games this fall.
Those fast starts allowed the Wildcats to dictate the tempo. Determining the style of play allowed Kentucky to go win 10 games.
The Wildcats are built to play with leads as their running game and big-play prevention defense can shrink games and put pressure on opponents. However, fast starts must be accomplished consistently for that to occur.
Under Coen, the opening script was dynamite for Kentucky, and it allowed the Wildcats to get an early lead in 10 games this season. Not surprisingly, Kentucky was 8-2 when that happened.
Starting fast is a key to success in college football. Coen’s offense allowed Kentucky to accomplish that in 2021.
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