Kentucky is on strong cover run against ranked teams

by: Adam Luckett13 hours agoadamluckettksr

The Kentucky Wildcat mascot at Kroger Field, via Crawford Ifling, KSR — The Kentucky Wildcat mascot at Kroger Field, via Crawford Ifland, KSR

On Senior Day in 2023, No. 8 Alabama rolled into Kroger Field as an 11-point road favorite against Kentucky. The Crimson Tide rolled to a 49-21 victory on that November Saturday afternoon in Nick Saban‘s final season in college football. That was third consecutive non-cover for UK against ranked foes.

We’ve seen the Cats hit another gear since that game. Over the last 23 months, UK has faced eight ranked teams. Mark Stoops has led his team to pair of outright upsets against top-10 foes but has also created a ton of good games. Kentucky has been a very profitable underdog against ranked competition.

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Date	Spread	Result	ATS (Outright)
11/25/2023	Kentucky (+7) at No. 9 Louisville	Cats 38, Cards 31	1-0 ATS (1-0 outright)
12/29/2023	No. 22 Clemson vs. Kentucky (+3)	Tigers 38, Cats 35	1-0-1 ATS (1-1 outright)
9/14/2024	No. 1 Georgia at Kentucky (+22)	Dawgs 13, Cats 12	2-0-1 ATS (1-2 outright)
9/28/2024	Kentucky (+15) at No. 6 Ole Miss	Cats 20, Rebels 17	3-0-1 ATS (2-2 outright)
11/2/2024	Kentucky (+17) at No. 7 Tennnessee	Vols 28, Cats 18	4-0-1 ATS (2-3 outright)
11/23/2024	Kentucky (+19) at No. 3 Texas	Horns 31, Cats 14	5-0-1 ATS (2-4 outright)
9/6/2025	No. 20 Ole Miss at Kentucky (+8.5)	Rebels 30, Cats 23	6-0-1 ATS (2-5 outright)
10/4/2025	Kentucky (+20) at No. 12 Georgia	Dawgs 35, Cats 14	6-1-1 ATS (2-6 outright)
10/18/2025	No. 21 Texas at Kentucky (+12.5)	Horns 16, Cats 13	7-1-1 ATS (2-7 outright)

The Cats 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games against ranked team. Six of those contests were one-score games. Kentucky is beating the spread by an average of 9.1 points in these contests. This program has found a way to play very competitive football against teams with a number in front of their name.

Tennessee enters Saturday’s contest having failed to cover in four consecutive games. We’ve slowly seen the spread shink from 9.5 to 7.5. It sounds like some people are riding the trend. Despite Tennessee’s historic dominance in Lexington, UK might just be a live dog on Saturday night.

The Cats consistently overachieve pregame expectations against the best teams on their schedule.