Early haymakers from Tennessee must be absorbed by Kentucky

Styles often make fights. Under Josh Heupel, Tennessee comes out swinging from the opening bell.

In first quarters this season, the Vols are outscoring opponents by a score of 124-30. Tennessee has twice scored 28 points in the opening quarter of an SEC game and has owned a two-possession lead in five games this season heading into the second quarter.

Kentucky must be able to survive the first 15 minutes on Saturday. There are two ways to accomplish that mission.

Defense wins early

In games against both ULM and Chattanooga, Kentucky allowed an opening drive touchdown. The Warhawks were given a short field after an interception, and the Mocs got the biggest chunk play of the day on the first series to set up a scoring opportunity.

Against Power Five competition, Kentucky has yet to allow an opening drive touchdown this season.

In six possessions, Kentucky has forced five punts and one turnover. Offenses are averaging just 3.57 yards per play with a success rate of 36.36 percent. The Wildcats have gotten it done off the bat to begin games.

However, Tennessee will present a different challenge.

“It’s hard to simulate and it’s hard to replicate,” Kentucky defensive coordinator Brad White said about the tempo used by the Vols.”They do such a nice job of jumping on teams early with that. We’ve gotta try to do as good of a job of winning early.

Winning on that first possession will be essential. On second possessions, Kentucky has had some struggles. Both Missouri and Florida went 75 yards for touchdowns against the Wildcats. Against Power Five foes, Kentucky is allowing 6.22 yards per play and a 53.33 percent offensive success rate.

Due to Heupel’s opening script and Tennessee’s ability to use tempo to its advantage, the Vols are going to strike early. It will be on Kentucky’s defense to limit the blow and get out of the first quarter without severe damage on the scoreboard.

Best defense could be Kentucky offense

Kentucky is going through some offensive issues at the moment, but starting games the right way isn’t one of the issues.

On first possessions this season, Kentucky has scored four touchdowns and is averaging 6.05 yards per play with a 47.27 percent success rate. On second possessions, Kentucky has scored four touchdowns and a field goal. The Wildcats are averaging 7.14 yards per play with a 48.28 percent success rate.

Liam Coen’s opening scripts are working.

Even in games where the offense had major issues, the Wildcats punched in an explosive play touchdown against Florida and crossed midfield twice against Mississippi State. The Wildcats also start hot on offense.

That will be needed against Tennessee.

Complementary football

Mark Stoops has built Kentucky to have a ball-control offense, bend but don’t break defense, and solid kicking game. The Wildcats want to control the game with a strong rushing attack and limit possessions.

That has created a winning formula in Lexington as Kentucky is 43-28 with a 24-24 mark in SEC play since 2016. The Wildcats got away from that formula at Mississippi State.

Kentucky couldn’t establish the run, had poor ball security, broke too many times on defense, and wasted a major hidden yards advantage built by the kicking game. All those factors added up to equal an embarrassing loss to Mississippi State.

Stoops and his program must get back to their winning formula this weekend.

Tennessee’s tempo can cause a bunch of issues. The Vols go faster than anyone else in college football and like to lull you to sleep with an inside running game to open up vertical shots in the passing game. Tennessee is a quick-strike unit that stretches defenses both horizontally and vertically with formations and deep routes. Heupel wants a game with a lot of possessions. The best defense on Saturday will be a good offense.

The Vols are 118th nationally in third down defense and 124th in red zone touchdown rate allowed. Tennessee struggles mightily in situational football. Defensive coordinator Tim Banks has built his unit to create tackles for loss at all costs. If that can be limited, long drives can be put together.

Kentucky must play keep-away by controlling the time of possession and total plays Saturday night. However, the Wildcats must finish drives with points. Getting off to a hot start early could allow Kentucky to dictate the terms of the game.

However, touchdowns will be needed.

In 12 career losses for Josh Heupel, opposing teams are scoring 38.92 points per outing. Only one team has scored less than 30 points in a victory. Kentucky must go over 30 points to go home happy on Saturday night.

The offense has a lot riding on it, but the defense must hold up its end of the bargain. Kentucky plays deep coverage to eliminate big plays. That style only works if stops can be consistently made when the field starts shrinking once offenses get near the red zone. The Wildcats must find ways to create timely stops and to create favorable situations for the offense.

Kentucky got away from its DNA in Starkville. Tennessee will force them to go back to it at Kroger Field. If not, things could get ugly.

We likely will know which way the game is trending at the end of the first quarter.