Kentucky will need to overcome pair of woeful trends against Texas

Kentucky is drawing No. 21 Texas in a letdown spot on Saturday night. The Horns are fresh off an emotional rivalry win over Oklahoma and are playing away from home for the third consecutive week. This has not been a good spot under head coach Steve Sarkisian. Texas is 2-2 outright and 0-4 against the spread (ATS) in the game directly after Red River under Sark. UT has lost as a favorite twice at home and squeaked out a seven-point win as a 23-point road favorite against Houston in 2023. Meanwhile, Kentucky enters this game with a 6-1-1 ATS mark in its last eight games versus ranked teams with two outright upset wins over top-10 foes.

So the Cats should be live dogs at Kroger Field. However, there is one major concerning trend for UK entering this matchup. This program has a serious problem after the bye.

A long trend under Mark Stoops has continued in 2025. Kentucky arguably played its worst game of the season after the first bye week when the Cats were hammered by South Carolina. That has been a common theme under Stoops.

Game Date	Betting Spread	Result	Record (ATS Record)
9/28/2013	Kentucky (+11) vs. No. 20 Florida	Gators 24, Cats 7	0-1 (0-1 ATS)
10/24/2013	Kentucky (+11) at Mississippi State	Bulldogs 28, Cats 22	0-2 (1-1 ATS)
9/27/2014	Kentucky (-17) vs. Vanderbilt	Cats 17, Commodores 7	1-2 (1-2 ATS)
11/29/2014	Kentucky (+12) at No. 24 Louisville	Cards 44, Cats 40	1-3 (2-2 ATS)
10/15/2015	Kentucky (+1) vs. Auburn	Tigers 30, Cats 27	1-4 (2-3 ATS)
10/22/2016	Kentucky (+4) vs. Mississippi State	Cats 40, Bulldogs 38	2-4 (3-3 ATS)
10/21/2017	Kentucky (+12) at Mississippi State	Bulldogs 45, Cats 7	2-5 (3-4 ATS)
10/20/2018	Kentucky (-11) vs. Vanderbilt	Cats 14, Commodores 7	3-5 (3-5 ATS)
10/12/2019	Kentucky (-7) vs. Arkansas	Cats 24, Hogs 20	4-5 (3-6 ATS)
11/9/2019	Kentucky (-1) vs. Tennessee	Vols 17, Cats 13	4-6 (3-7 ATS)
11/14/2020	Kentucky (-17) vs. Vanderbilt	Cats 38, Commodores 35	5-6 (3-8 ATS)
10/30/2021	Kentucky (PK) at Mississippi State	Bulldogs 31, Cats 17	5-7 (3-9 ATS)
10/29/2022	No. 19 Kentucky (+11) at No. 3 Tennessee	Vols 44, Cats 6	5-8 (3-10 ATS)
10/28/2023	Kentucky (+3) vs. No. 21 Tennessee	Vols 33, Cats 27	5-9 (3-11 ATS)
10/12/2024	Kentucky (-12.5) vs. Vanderbilt	Commodores 20, Cats 13	5-10 (3-12 ATS)
11/16/2024	Kentucky (-41) vs. Murray State	Cats 48, Racers 6	6-10 (4-12 ATS)
9/27/2025	Kentucky (+5.5) at South Carolina	Gamecocks 35, Cats 13	6-11 (4-13 ATS)

The Cats are just 6-11 outright with an atrocious 4-13 ATS mark in games directly off of a bye. Against SEC foes, UK is just 5-10 outright and 2-13 ATS. UK lost as favorite off a bye week for the first time last season when the program dropped a home game to Vanderbilt. UK never seems to play its best football after the bye week.

As an underdog in this situation, Kentucky is 1-8 outright and 3-6 ATS. The Cats have covered as a double-digit dog twice but lost toss-up games against South Carolina (2025), Tennessee (2019, 2023), Mississippi State (2021), and Auburn (2015). This has been a tough spot for the Cats for over a decade.

From 2016-2022, UK went 15-6 (12-8-1 ATS) in SEC night games at Kroger Field with five outright wins as an underdog. Since 2023, UK is 0-5 (1-4 ATS) in SEC night games at Kroger Field. What used to be a program strength has turned into a weakness. That only compounds the after bye week issues.

Playing at night in your home stadium against a conference foe coming off a rivalry game should be a good spot for anyone in the SEC. Unfortunately, Kentucky has struggled in this situation.