Kentucky vs. Alabama: National Media Predictions

After getting back in the win column last week vs. Mississippi State, Kentucky hosts No. 8 Alabama on Saturday for Senior Day. The Crimson Tide is rolling right now, riding a seven-game winning streak including impressive back-to-back wins over Tennessee and LSU. A win over Alabama would change the trajectory of Kentucky’s season, bringing some sunny postseason destinations potentially back into play.

Can Kentucky pull off the upset at Kroger Field? The national media is going with Bama, but several talking heads have the Cats covering +10.5 points.

Andy Staples: Alabama -10.5

Adam Kramer: Kentucky +10.5

When you consider the emotion and preparation that went into Alabama’s game against LSU, a letdown of some kind is expected.

Granted, Nick Saban is a football hangover cure. He’s done this before, and he’s overcome these types of moments in the past. But those teams have had more talent than this one, and this particular spot feels particularly tricky.

On the topic of tricky, road trips haven’t been easy for Alabama. South Florida and Texas A&M both put up solid fights, and the Crimson Tide have also played in a handful of close-ish games throughout the year.

The talent discrepancy between these two teams is still robust, although Kentucky has both the coaching and pieces to keep this game close.

Alabama will win. This is not a call for an upset. But it will be ugly and closer than anticipated.

Sports Illustrated’s Richard Johnson and Pat Forde: Alabama

Johnson: Alabama. I’m sorry, I’m just not taking Kentucky seriously in this kind of spot. Similarly to the Georgia game, I think the Tide rolls over a Cats squad that’s just not up to the task when they’re significantly out-talented by a team that wants to play their brand of rock-em-sock-em football.

Forde: Alabama. The Crimson Tide seem to be in That Mode, where they just start rolling opponents and don’t stop. In addition to the improved play of Jalen Milroe (including an improved game plan that lets him run more freely), Alabama has notably reduced its penalty yardage as the season has gone along. That was a major problem much of last year and at times this year, but the Tide has only been flagged 12 times in the last three games for a total of 100 yards. Kentucky’s only chance is for Alabama to beat itself, and this team has grown out of that.

Bill Bender: Alabama

This line has already ticked up a half point [to Alabama -11]; a nod to the fact Alabama has covered four of the last five weeks and is coming off 14-point wins against Tennessee and LSU. Is there a bit of a let-down factor at work? Kentucky recalibrated from back-to-back home losses by beating Mississippi State 24-3. The Wildcats are 6-2 ATS as a home underdog under Mark Stoops since 2019. Alabama hasn’t lost to Kentucky since 1997. 

Pick: Alabama wins 35-17 and COVERS the spread. 

CBS Sports Staff

Against the Spread

Straight Up

CBS Sports’ Barrett Sallee: Kentucky +10.5

As stated above, Kentucky is a different kind of animal than LSU. Expect Alabama to go old school and grind out long possessions to wear down the Wildcat defense. The limited number of possessions will keep this a close game on the scoreboard, even though the Crimson Tide will control things for the majority of the game. A 10-point game cashes a Kentucky ticket, so I’ll grab the points. Pick: Kentucky +10.5

Stewart Mandel: Kentucky +10.5

A weird thing happened over the weekend. Alabama beat a defensively inept LSU team at home, and suddenly Tide fans went from “We’re not very good this year” to “Playoff, here we come!” I do expect Bama to win this one comfortably, but, it’s worth remembering this is the same team that did not exactly dominate lesser foes like Texas A&M and Arkansas.

Alabama 28, Kentucky 20
The pick: Kentucky +10.5

Bruce Feldman: Kentucky +10.5

The Cats snapped a three-game losing skid by whipping Mississippi State on the road. Obviously, Alabama is a different animal, especially the way Jalen Milroe is playing. UK’s offensive line has been solid, and I think that group will hold up well enough to keep this one close into the fourth quarter.

Alabama 31, Kentucky 24
The Pick: Kentucky +10.5

USA Today Staff

Scott Van Pelt: Kentucky +10.5

“Bama off a big win at home over LSU in the noon spot in Lexington against a team that can hang around? We like UK to do just that. Hang around.”

ESPN Football Power Index

The Athletic’s Kennington Smith III: Alabama

It’s certainly possible that an early kick combined with an upset-minded Kentucky team and crowd could spell a slow start. But an Alabama team with everything to play for will rise to the occasion. With proper defensive execution, Kentucky should have difficulties running the ball, which will put the game in the hands of Leary, who has completed only 53.4 percent of his passes in SEC play. A physical and potentially close start eventually turns Alabama’s way for a convincing win. The Tide will clinch a share of the SEC West in Lexington.

Alabama 31, Kentucky 13

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