KSR Staff Predictions: Kentucky vs. Indiana

by: KSR3 hours ago

Saturday marks the return of the Kentucky vs. Indiana rivalry, the first of four games against the Hoosiers over four seasons. Kentucky leads the series 32-25 all-time, 10-3 in Lexington. The last two games have taken place in the NCAA Tournament: a second-round loss to the Hoosiers in 2016 and a Sweet 16 win in 2012 en route to the national championship. The latter avenged the regular-season loss at Assembly Hall, the end of the previous home-and-home series.

Now, the rivalry is back, and the stakes are very high for Kentucky, which is 0-4 in big games so far this season, the most recent being an embarrassing 35-point loss to Gonzaga in Nashville. Indiana has underperformed, too, losing back-to-back games vs. Minnesota and Louisville last week, but the Hoosiers trounced Penn State on Tuesday night, 113-72, behind a record 10 three-pointers by Lamar Wilkerson, one of Kentucky’s top targets in the transfer portal.

Will the Cats rise to the occasion and defend home court against the Hoosiers, or is the BBN in for more misery? The KSR crew is ready to weigh in with our Parlour Pizza pregame predictions.

Tyler Thompson

I went with my heart over my head last week by predicting a Kentucky win over Gonzaga. Boy, was I wrong. I wasn’t yet willing to accept that the Cats were as bad as they seemed in their first three losses; turns out they’re even worse. Just over a week later, will they flunk their fifth big test and send BBN into a further tailspin with a loss to one of their oldest rivals on the Rupp Arena floor? I shudder at the thought.

It’s hard to take much from Tuesday’s win over NC Central other than that Mark Pope is now using the bench to send messages, sitting Jaland Lowe and Kam Williams in the first half and Brandon Garrison for 28 minutes after he jogged back on defense after committing a turnover. That’s a good start, but Saturday’s game vs. Indiana is massive. While the Hoosiers aren’t great, much more on Kentucky’s level than Gonzaga, they have a great player in Lamar Wilkerson, who was ready to come to Kentucky, even parading around the Keeneland winner’s circle with Pope, until Indiana came in with a better offer.

Wilkerson scored 44 points and hit a program-record 10 threes in Indiana’s win over Penn State on Tuesday. He and Tucker DeVries have combined for 70 threes this season; Kentucky’s entire team has combined for 91. If the Cats want to avoid another loss, they have to shut Wilkerson and/or DeVries down. Coming off his most assertive game yet, I expect Otega Oweh to step up and lead the way offensively, but the rest of the team has to follow him. This team has yet to prove it is worthy of the Kentucky jersey; beating the Hoosiers in Rupp Arena is a good start, even if there’s still a long way to go.

I’m going with Kentucky in a close one, but I’ll admit I’m terrified it’ll go the other way.

Score: Kentucky 76, Indiana 74

Adam Luckett

Another game that Kentucky cannot afford to lose has arrived. The Cats are riding a five-game losing streak against power conference teams dating back to last season. Mark Pope is just 11-14 in his last 25 games against power conference foes. It feels like a now or never moment in a Saturday night rivalry game at Rupp Arena.

I don’t love how this game matches up on paper.

Indiana and Kentucky both play similar styles of basketball. One is a very good three-point shooting team and the other isn’t. This feels like a game where Kentucky’s defense will have to win it for them. I don’t think that happens.

The Hoosiers win the three-point battle and Kentucky will struggle against what has been a very good two-point defense for Indiana this season. The Cats will get a lot of open looks from three. This could be the ultimate “make or miss” game.

I trust Indiana’s shotmaking more. Kentucky’s nightmare season continues.

Score: Indiana 73, Kentucky 70

Nick Roush

Some may see the stat line Lamar Wilkerson put up last game and fear that he is destined to have a similar performance against the team that recruited him out of the transfer portal. I think the opposite actually applies. It’s similar to the logic that the safest time to fly is after an accident in the skies. Not only did Wilkerson get all of the good shots out of his system, but he’s going to have supreme confidence and shoot the Hoosiers out of the game.

Yes, I’m remaining optimistic in the hopes that Dark Pope has gotten this team one step closer to pulling on the same rope. The defensive intensity can create some transition opportunities that give Kentucky some momentum. That’s right when the outside shots start falling and Rupp comes alive. Kentucky fans are due for a good shooting performance. It’s going to come from the Wildcats, not Lamar Wilkerson.

Score: Kentucky 81, Indiana 76

Zack Geoghegan

Is Kentucky truly a bad basketball team? Or are they a solid team that has just lost to four of the highest-ranked teams in the country? Even with how this season has played out, I’m still inclined to believe the latter. We’ll know for sure after Saturday’s game. Kentucky will still have the backing of the Big Blue Nation behind them to help push them over the finish line.

Indiana hasn’t exactly beaten a “good” team this season, either. Wilkerson’s 44-point explosion came against a Penn State squad ranked outside KenPom’s Top 100. The Hoosiers lost to Minnesota (No. 115 in KenPom) by nine points less than two weeks ago. The biggest fear for Kentucky should be watching one of (or both) Wilkerson or DeVries knock in five-plus three-pointers. If that happens, it could be tough for the Wildcats to keep up the scoring pace.

Jaland Lowe has to play well on Saturday night. He has to get into the paint and create easier opportunities for his teammates. Pushing the pace and creating scoring chances on the break has been a real strength of this group. I do legitimately believe Pope is coaching this team differently now after the benchings we saw on Tuesday against North Carolina Central. This is a full-on desperation game for the ‘Cats. Losing this one simply cannot be an option — that’s a tough spot to be in.

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Score: Kentucky 75, Indiana 70

Jacob Polacheck

Well, I haven’t exactly been Mr. Positive of late. Truthfully, there hasn’t been a whole lot to be positive about when it comes to Kentucky basketball.

Saturday’s game will be a test of how Kentucky can slow former portal target Lamar Wilkerson. Wilkerson is coming off a 44-point game versus Penn State, so that will be no easy task. The duo of him and Tucker DeVries will be a lot to handle.

Kentucky will have its back against the wall in this game, in perhaps the biggest game of Mark Pope‘s Kentucky coaching career. It’s never smart to count against a team in such a must-win game, but I’ll need to see it before I believe it against a power conference team like IU.

Score: Indiana, 79, Kentucky 72

Drew Franklin

I am going to believe in this team one more time. First, they can’t keep being as bad as they’ve been. They’re far from great and maybe even good, but they’re better than we’ve seen in the four losses. But second, I grew up near the Kentucky-Indiana border when this rivalry was rolling. I remember watching these games on my grandparents’ box TV, and that time I sat in an aisle seat in Freedom Hall, right where the Blue and Red crowds split.

This game is too important for my UK-IU memories, the current season, and the Indiana comparisons that Kentucky is trying to avoid right now. I can’t possibly predict the Hoosiers to steal what’s left of my basketball joy this year. Kentucky needs to win this game, and I believe they’re up for the challenge. But if we’re being honest, this game scares the shit out of me. Still, Go Cats.

Score: Kentucky 81, Indiana 75

Jack Pilgrim

It’s the must-win of all must-wins, Kentucky still looking to beat a team of substance with the basketball world questioning everything under Mark Pope, the Wildcats sitting at 6-4 on the year and no longer seen as a serious Final Four contender — not yet, anyway. If there was ever a put-up-or-shut-up time, it’s December 13 against the Indiana Hoosiers.

They’re scary because of the logo and Lamar Wilkerson, knowing how awful those fans are and how insufferable they’ll be if the kid they stole from us ends up being the reason we lose. It’d be easy to feel that way coming off the sharpshooting guard’s 44-point effort against Penn State just days ago. The reality of the Hoosiers, though, is that they did take back-to-back nine-point losses to Minnesota and Louisville and their feel-good bounce-back came against No. 110 Penn State at home. Their best wins up to this point were No. 79 Kansas State at home and No. 93 Marquette on a neutral floor.

Now, that’s no shot at IU — because UK’s best win is vs. No. 198 Valpo. These Wildcats have plenty of their own issues. But with desperation on their side in a now-or-never matchup, you just have to think they’ll find a way to pull through and build some type of momentum going into the holidays and ahead of SEC play.

Score: Kentucky 85, Indiana 79

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