Kentucky vs. Louisville: KSR Staff Predictions

by:KSR•12/21/23

It’s almost that time. No. 9 Kentucky takes on Louisville at the Yum Center at 6 p.m. on ESPN, a rivalry that normally fuels fights across the Bluegrass, but this year, feels one-sided.

Louisville has five wins to its name this season, one more than last season’s total, but the writing appears to be on the wall for Kenny Payne barring an upset for the ages. On the other side of the ball, Kentucky rides a tidal wave of momentum into the game following a win over North Carolina in the CBS Sports Classic. The Cats are a 14.5-point favorite, but given the trajectories of both programs, tonight’s game could get out of hand quickly.

We’ve been talking about the game all week. Now it’s time for the KSR staff to share our predictions.

Tyler Thompson

I was surprised when the line opened at Kentucky -15.5. I was even more surprised when it was bet down to -12.5 a few hours later. You better believe I put money on both.

Yes, rivalry games can be weird, especially ones following big wins like Kentucky’s over North Carolina with a young team. One could argue that Louisville’s players will rally to fight for Kenny Payne’s job tonight, but all evidence suggests the Cards have already given up. John Calipari probably doesn’t want to run the score up on his friend in a low moment, but with a team that loves to run and shoot and wear “Louisville Doesn’t Exist” shirts in an arena that’s mostly blue, it might just happen naturally.

Every time the most cautious part of me entertains a scenario in which Louisville keeps it respectable or — gasp! — pulls off the upset, DJ Wagner, Rob Dillingham, Reed Sheppard, and Aaron Bradshaw run all over it. Kentucky’s swag was on display last week in Atlanta. I have a feeling these freshmen will embrace the rivalry on a fun Ls Down night at the Yum Center.

Score: Kentucky 86, Louisville 65

Zack Geoghegan

The folks in Las Vegas must know something — that betting line feels far too small. But there shouldn’t be any situation where Kentucky actually loses to Louisville. From top to bottom, the Wildcats are simply a much better team than the Cardinals. The only sweating from fans tonight will be due to UK covering or not.

This game doesn’t have the “rivalry” feel. The Yum! Center is going to be painted blue from the opening tip. Kenny Payne’s job is on the line and I’m not sure his players enjoy playing basketball for him enough to step it up. This game has special meaning for Wildcats such as DJ Wagner and Reed Sheppard. I expect big games from them.

Louisville can’t do much of anything right. Even worse, their weaknesses on defense tend to be strengths on offense for Kentucky. That being said, I don’t think this will be a case of John Calipari taking it easy on Payne. UL will keep it moderately close in the first half before the ‘Cats dominate the second half. The only reason I’m not calling for a 20-plus victory is because Kentucky’s walk-ons will give up some of the lead in the closing minutes.

Score: Kentucky 83, Louisville 67

Adam Luckett

Kentucky is better than Louisville in basketball. That is not a surprise. The fact that Kentucky remains this much better than Louisville is a surprise. The Cats hammered a worse Louisville team 86-63 at home last year. Kenny Payne’s second team is improved but not by much.

The Cats will build a big lead early creating a fun environment for the Big Blue Nation in enemy territory before taking the foot of the gas in the second half. Kentucky’s defensive struggles show up at various points throughout the game facing a Louisville team playing with effort.

Kentucky gets another double-digit win to extend their series lead to 39-17.

Score: Kentucky 84, Louisville 69

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Nick Roush

Reed Sheppard gets revenge for his did by lighting up the Cards from downtown.

Score: Kentucky 78, Louisville 56

Jack Pilgrim

Games like this tend to get weird. Coach appears to be on the outs and desperate to save his job and players have nothing to lose. Then factor in the rivalry aspect and it being Kentucky’s first true road game of the season — even if the home team is pumping crowd noise into practice because it isn’t used to playing in front of an audience. Things get tight, and I think the score reflects that early, giving Louisville fans the slightest bit of optimism going into the half.

Then the cream rises to the top and the talent gap shows itself after the break, setting up for a solid all-around effort from the Cats in the final 20 minutes. Knowing what this rivalry means and the importance of a win, in-state standout Reed Sheppard settles things down and wins game MVP honors. DJ Wagner is obviously the other name to keep a close eye on, the freshman guard taking on his grandfather on the opposing bench. There was plenty of online chatter leading up to the season about the matchup of Wagner vs. former Kentucky signee Skyy Clark — Louisville’s best player and starting point guard. Expect Wagner to take that head-to-head battle personally in a statement offensive effort.

A tight lead balloons in the second half into a firm spread-beating double-digit victory. Then Josh Heird is left with a decision to make on Kenny Payne’s future.

Score: Kentucky 90, Louisville 71

Drew Franklin

Louisville fans are ready for the Kenny Payne era to end. A beatdown tonight should do the trick. So, in the spirit of the holiday, Kentucky Basketball will grant Louisville fans’ wishes with a takeover of the Yum Center and a blowout victory in a rivalry game that used to be competitive. Adding to their misery, DJ Wagner, the grandson of their beloved Milt, will take MVP honors with a huge game against the program that thought it could steal DJ away from Lexington.

I need DJ giving an Ls down tonight like I need oxygen.

Score: Kentucky 91, Louisville 69