KSR Staff Predictions: Kentucky vs. Michigan State in the Champions Classic

The Cats return to the big stage against the Spartans, the fifth clash between Kentucky and Michigan State in the Champions Classic — but the first between Mark Pope and Tom Izzo. It’s a chance to break the series tie in the event, currently sitting at 2-2 after previous matchups in 2013, 2016, 2019 and 2022. UK’s two wins both came in New York City, for what it’s worth.

The KSR crew shares their predictions ahead of tip-off, scheduled for 6:30 p.m. ET at Madison Square Garden, live on ESPN.

Spoiler: it’s not a clean sweep for the blue and white.

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Tyler Thompson

The 46-point win over Eastern Illinois was a fun way to spend a Friday night, but I need more to move on from last week’s loss to Louisville. Thankfully, Michigan State does not have the same firepower that the Cards do. The Spartans are a classic Tom Izzo squad, good at rebounding and at the rim. They rank fifth nationally in offensive rebounding, but most of those boards are coming off missed three-point shots. Michigan State is making only 21.7% of its threes, which ranks 351st in Division I.

The Spartans like to run; hopefully, the Cats learned their lesson vs. Louisville when it comes to transition defense. That’s been a focus in practice since, so tomorrow will be a good test of where Kentucky really stands defensively. It’ll also be a good test of guard play, especially if Jaland Lowe is out for an extended period of time. Jeremy Fears Jr. leads the nation in assists per game (9.3), but Aberdeen is a little more dynamic. Will Otega Oweh snap out of his funk in his return to the New York City area? How will Mo Dioubate handle his own homecoming as he goes against Jaxon Kohler, who is averaging a double-double, 14.3 points and 13.3 rebounds? After a roller coaster month, I need the real Kentucky to please stand up under the national spotlight.

Michigan State was able to contain Arkansas’ athleticism and beat the Razorbacks during the first week of the season, but that was with a rowdy home crowd behind them. I like the Cats in this one. Hopefully, there’s no pregame drama this time around. No proposals, either.

Score: Kentucky 80, Michigan State 73

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Nick Roush

The Louisville loss took the wind out of BBN’s sails. I don’t think a win tonight will get it all back, but it will certainly help. 

Here’s the thing about that Louisville game: The Cards might actually have the best offense in America. I’m not willing to hand down an indictment on this Kentucky defense just yet. After all, Kentucky has a previous opponent that’s similar to Michigan State, Purdue. Even though it was an exhibition, we saw superior physicality and athleticism own the night. That feels like the right recipe to win tonight in Madison Square Garden. 

Four games into the season, we’re still waiting for the big Otega Oweh breakthrough. After Mark Pope called him out from the podium, a response is on the horizon. It won’t be pretty, but Kentucky will take care of business. 

Score: Kentucky 75, Michigan State 69

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Drew Franklin

Kentucky heads back to Madison Square Garden tonight, and unlike last season’s December trip to the Big Apple, I like the Wildcats to rise to the moment. Michigan State will bring the toughness and physicality that Tom Izzo teams are known for, but Kentucky’s speed and depth can tilt this one.

My official prediction: Denzel Aberdeen settles nicely into the point guard role, controlling the tempo for UK’s offense while providing the backcourt defense on Jeremy Fears Jr., the nation’s assist leader on the other side. I do worry a little about the emotions of a homecoming spot for Mo Dioubate, who just played his best game as a Wildcat, so I’ll go out on a limb and say keep an eye on Andrija Jelavić as a potential breakout star in UK’s frontcourt. Give me an internet high-five when it happens.

I’ll take Kentucky to make the key plays late and leave the Garden with another Champions Classic win, moving Mark Pope to 2–0 in the event and helping the team move past last week’s loss to rival Louisville.

Score: Kentucky 80, Michigan State 76

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Zack Geoghegan

In my mind, the main thing that will keep Kentucky from leaving MSG with a win will be a hot shooting night from Michigan State. The Spartans’ last three games tell us that’s unlikely to happen. But even still, Jeremy Fears Jr. is a talented two-way threat in the backcourt, and Jaxon Kohler inhales most rebounds. This is the best passing team in the country right now. Defensively, none of Colgate, Arkansas, or San Jose State could score more than 69 points against MSU.

However, this Kentucky offense is significantly deeper and more talented than any of those three schools. UK can attack Kohler on defense. The Wildcats’ winning the rebound battle would go a long way in helping secure a dub. This is a top-heavy Michigan State rotation that Kentucky can wear down as the game goes along. As long as UK can keep its turnovers down and hit a respectable amount of threes, the outcome should be a tick in the W column.

Score: Kentucky 84, Michigan State 78

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Jacob Polacheck

I’ll be the bad guy. It’s been a rocky start to the season for Kentucky, with the loss to Louisville as the main headliner. Heading to Madison Square Garden to face Michigan State will be anything but a cakewalk.

Otega Oweh hasn’t been consistent this season, and he’ll need to have a big game for Kentucky to come out victorious. Michigan State has depth with Jeremy Fears, Jaxon Kohler, Carson Cooper, and Coen Carr leading the charge. Kentucky’s depth has been tested this season, and tonight will be another one of them.

Kentucky will need to defend the three-point line, slow Michigan State in transition, and get baskets at the rim. I’m predicting that Michigan State’s transition offense and duo of bigs will be too much.

Score: Michigan State 85, Kentucky 81

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Adam Luckett

Michigan State is a very poor three-point shooting team who will need to get the ball into the paint and hit the offensive glass hard to score. That makes this is a good matchup for Kentucky. The Cats are a good rebounding team (No. 10 in defensive rebound percentage) and the two-point defense should be a strength when the floor isn’t stretched against a bad shooting team.

The Spartans will slow the tempo down and try to play this game in the mud. Kentucky should have enough offensive balance to get a lead at some point in the first half and keep Tom Izzo’s team at arm’s length throughout the game.

This one will be a grinder. Mo Dioubate’s presence will be felt. Denzel Aberdeen’s experience will be needed. Someone of the bench provides a scoring boost. The Cats leave MSG with a double-digit victory in a game that feels like college basketball in November.

Score: Kentucky 78, Michigan State 66

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Jack Pilgrim

Michigan State is tough and gritty, just like most Tom Izzo-coached teams. The Spartans rebound at a high level, score efficiently in transition and take care of the basketball with a high assist-to-turnover rate. What they aren’t, though, is overly talented — Kentucky has a serious advantage in that department as the deeper and better offensive team with the athletes to compete. On paper, the Wildcats should be able to win comfortably, but will they be able to respond coming off a disappointing showing at Louisville exactly a week ago? They didn’t look the part in this building last Christmas, either — Mark Pope called it his debut team’s worst loss of the season.

My vote is yes, shaking the rivalry rust off and taking care of business the way this team was built to do. Even without Jaland Lowe, there is simply too much on that Kentucky bench not to walk out of Madison Square Garden with a win. If the Wildcats can’t, we may have some serious questions about this group the rest of the week and beyond. I don’t expect that to happen, Denzel Aberdeen stepping up once again on the big stage — it’s why you brought him in — while Mo Dioubate has a feel-good homecoming in front of friends and family in the Big Apple. Oh, and it’s Otega Oweh time. The SEC Preseason Player of the Year needs to break through after a shaky start to his senior campaign.

Cats get it done under the bright lights.

Score: Kentucky 80, Michigan State 74

No. 12 Kentucky vs. No. 17 Michigan State: How to Watch, Listen

Kentucky vs. Michigan State is the first half of the Champions Classic doubleheader. Kansas vs. Duke is the second, starting at approximately 8:30 p.m. ET following ESPN’s reveal of the latest College Football Playoff rankings. College Gameday will air live from Madison Square Garden at 6 p.m. on ESPN, featuring Rece Davis, Jay Bilas, Seth Greenberg, Jay Williams, and Andraya Carter.

• Tipoff: 6:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN (Dan Shulman, Jay Bilas, Kris Budden)
• Local Radio: UK Sports Network (Tom Leach, Goose Givens)
• AM: 840 WHAS, 630 WLAP
• FM: 98.1 WBUL
• Online: iHeart Radio
• Sirius XM: 84

You can also follow along on the KSR LIVE BLOG, which will start a few hours before tipoff, and join the conversation on KSBoard.

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