Kentucky vs. Michigan State: Preview, Odds & How to Watch

Kentucky‘s first name-brand matchup of the season did not go well for the Wildcats, falling at Louisville to leave a bad taste in the Big Blue Nation’s mouth, despite starting the year 3-1 overall and still ranked No. 12 in the latest AP Poll. The easiest way to get back on the fans’ good side? Make a statement in the Champions Classic, with Mark Pope‘s group set to take on Tom Izzo and Michigan State in New York City.

Can the Cats earn a ranked win against the Spartans inside Madison Square Garden? It would not only right the wrongs of last week, but also fix last year’s horrific performance in the same building against Ohio State, losing by 20 just before Christmas.

Gotta have this one, folks. KSR has everything you need to know about the matchup.

Kentucky vs. Michigan State: How to Watch, Listen

• Tipoff: 6:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN (Dan Shulman, Jay Bilas, Kris Budden)
• Local Radio: UK Sports Network (Tom Leach, Goose Givens)
• AM: 840 WHAS, 630 WLAP
• FM: 98.1 WBUL
• Online: iHeart Radio
• Sirius XM: 84

You can also follow along on the KSR LIVE BLOG, which will start a few hours before tipoff, and join the conversation on KSBoard.

Lock in for the 2025 Kentucky Basketball season with KSR Plus! We’re giving you behind-the-scenes intel you won’t find anywhere else. Join the most vibrant online community in the BBN during Mark Pope’s second season.

Season Rewind

Kentucky: KenPom 4

• 11/4: 77-51 W vs. Nicholls
• 11/7: 107-59 W vs. Valparaiso
• 11/11: 96-88 L at No. 12 Louisville
• 11/14: 99-53 W vs. Eastern Illinois

Michigan State: KenPom 33

• 11/3: 80-69 W vs. Colgate
• 11/8: 69-66 W vs. Arkansas
• 11/13: 79-60 W vs. San Jose State

Series History

This is the 27th all-time meeting between the Kentucky Wildcats and the Michigan State Spartans, UK leading the overall series 14-12 with the two sides tied at 4-4 in neutral site games. Mark Pope has never faced the Spartans in his time in Lexington while Tom Izzo is 6-4 against the Wildcats.

As for the Champions Classic specifically, Kentucky is 2-2 against Michigan State, with the most recent matchup being the 2022 double-overtime loss in Indianapolis where the Spartans won that one 86-77. Each of the last four meetings in the series has come in the Champions Classic with 2005 being the highest scoring matchup (94-88 L) while 1971 saw two players score 32 points, Jim Andrews for UK and Mike Robinson for MSU, to set the single-game scoring record for either team in the series.

Kentucky vs. Michigan State Odds

KenPom is predicting a final score of 79-73 with a 73 percent chance to win while Bart Torvik is calling for a 76-74 victory for the good guys with a 58 percent hit rate. ESPN’s Matchup Predictor also gives UK a 77.8 percent chance to leave the Big Apple with a victory.

Kentucky Potential Starters

#1 – Denzel Aberdeen
6-5 – 195 – GUARD – SENIOR
15.3 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 3.0 APG

#5 – Collin Chandler
6-5 – 205 – GUARD – SOPHOMORE
11.3 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 3.5 APG

#00 – Otega Oweh
6-4 – 215 – GUARD – SENIOR
13.0 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 2.0 APG

#23 – Mouhamed Dioubate
6-7 – 220 – FORWARD – JUNIOR
12.0 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 1.5 APG

#10 – Brandon Garrison
6-10 – 245 – FORWARD – JUNIOR
7.3 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 1.8 APG

Michigan State Potential Starters

#1 – Jeremy Fears Jr.
6-2 – 190 – GUARD – SOPHOMORE
11.0 PPG, 9.3 APG, 4.3 RPG

#9 – Trey Fort
6-4 – 200 – GUARD – SENIOR
5.3 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 0.3 APG

#55 – Coen Carr
6-6 – 225 – FORWARD – JUNIOR
11.7 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 3.3 APG

#0 – Jaxon Kohler
6-10 – 245 – FORWARD – SENIOR
14.3 PPG, 13.3 RPG, 2.0 APG

#15 – Carson Cooper
6-11– 245 – CENTER – SENIOR
12.0 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 1.3 APG

Statistical Comparison

(via Kentucky’s game notes)

Fun stats from UK’s game notes:

• Kentucky has held three of its four opponents to 60 points or fewer for the first time since 2014-15. The Cats are currently limiting opponents to 34.4% from the field and 26.7% from behind the arc. UK is also pulling down 86.7% of its opponents misses, and owns a +18 margin on the boards.
• Kentucky is 6-8 all-time in the Champions Classic, including a 2-2 record against Michigan State. This will mark the fifth time the event has been hosted by Madison Square Garden and the first time since 2021.
• Balance has been the name of the game for the Cats thus far this season. UK has had four different leading scorers through the first four games. UK has also had three different players lead in rebounds and three in assists.

Pregame Storylines

CAN ABERDEEN STEP UP?

It’s been a terrific start for the Florida transfer, currently leading the team at 15.3 points per game through four games while adding 4.8 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 1.0 steals per contest — all career highs. He’s scored in double figures in all four games with at least one made three in each outing, too, along with earning a team-best 4.0 assist-to-turnover ratio. Can he keep it up? He’ll have no choice as the go-to point guard with Jaland Lowe’s long-term status in question, reinjuring his right shoulder last week. Aberdeen is next man up, and the Wildcats are going to need him right away in New York.

TIME FOR REVENGE IN NYC

Pope talked about his love for New York City and the honor it is to play at the World’s Most Famous Arena, Madison Square Garden — then the Wildcats lost to an unranked Ohio State team by 20 points while shooting just 29.8 percent from the field (17-57 FG). The Kentucky coach called it the worst loss of his debut season in Lexington, and now, he’ll get his shot at revenge on a bigger stage, taking on Michigan State in the Champions Classic. He’s 1-0 in the prestigious event after pulling off one of the biggest wins of his career vs. Duke last year, and considering the Louisville loss a week ago, the Wildcats need to pull this one off in a big way.

WELCOME HOME, MO DIOUBATE

Mo D is coming home to the concrete jungle where dreams are made of, and there’s nothing he can’t do with his friends and family by his side. The Queens, N.Y. native is currently third on the team with 12.0 points and second with 6.8 rebounds per contest, coming off just the second 20-point gaame of his collegiate career, posting game-highs in points (20) and rebounds (11) in the win over Eastern Illinois. The 6’7″ forward will have his hands full with a tough Michigan State frontcourt, but that’s why Pope brought him in from Alabama this past offseason. Dioubate’s job is to win battles like this — especially with a home-court advantage.

ANOTHER TRANSITION TEST

Kentucky gave up 34 points to Louisville in the first eight seconds of the shot clock, the Cardinals destroying the Wildcats when turning it into a track meet. Will UK be able to respond against another efficient team in transition? The Spartans have scored 58 points in transition and 35 off 36 forced turnovers in their first three games — 1.149 points per transition possession with 20 percent of their scoring overall coming in transition.

That’s at the top of the scouting report for Pope and the staff, as the players made clear on Monday.

“They’re a very good team, very physical team,” Denzel Aberdeen said. “They get out in transition pretty fast. Just preparing for them and trying to limit as much transition as possible. Just guarding our yard and sticking to the film..”

“This is one of those games where we have to be really good at transition defense,” Malachi Moreno added.

A BATTLE ON THE GLASS

Kentucky pulls down 48.0 rebounds per contest compared to 45.7 per game for Michigan State, a rebounding margin of plus-17.8 for the former and plus-17.7 for the latter — No. 7 and No. 8 nationally, respectively. The Wildcats rank No. 6 on the defensive glass (34.25) while the Spartans sit at No. 14 in the country on the offensive glass (17.00) with a rate of 45.5 percent, good for No. 5 overall. Jaxon Kohler is the top dog in that regard, averaging 13.3 boards per contest, including 5.3 offensive, to lead the Big Ten.

“It’s gonna be a war, as well. Because they’re really good on the glass,” Moreno said. “… We know what we need to fix and what we can get better on. I think we have a chance to re-prove ourselves and really make a statement.”

Join The Discussion on KSBoard

Want to interact with the KSR crew during the game? Consider joining the conversation on KSBoard, where we’ll be sharing live updates as your eyes and ears inside Madison Square Garden while also answering questions and providing real-time analysis (and probably complaining about the officiating).

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Rapid Reaction on the KSR YouTube Channel

Miss the game? KSR’s got you covered with a Rapid Reaction live from New York City on the KSR YouTube Channel. We’ll also have wall-to-wall postgame coverage on the website, including highlights, comments from Mark Pope and the players, stats, and takeaways.

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