Kentucky vs. Mississippi State After Action Review

An After Action Review, or AAR for short, is a military process used to analyze what happened, why it happened, and how it can be done better. Thanks to our friends at the Kentucky Army National Guard, KSR applies that concept to analyze how the Wildcats fared against its most recent opponent. Here is the breakdown of pregame goals compared to results against Mississippi State.  

B.L.U.F. (Bottom Line Up Front)

Mississippi State whipped Kentucky.  

OFFENSE 

Football is a game of “must nots.” The first rule of trying to win on the road is to not lose the turnover margin. The Wildcats turned the football over on four occasions. It created zero. Three interceptions and a lost fumble will get you beat against a capable opponent in an unfriendly environment. 

At a bare minimum, UK left 10 points on the field. From underthrows that were intercepted to overshooting Josh Ali, Will Levis was off for the majority of the football game. The Wildcat signal-caller finished the game 17/28 for 150 yards, one touchdown, and three interceptions

Zach Arnett’s defense out-tricked and out-treated the Wildcats for four quarters. The Bulldogs were the aggressors and it showed on the final stat sheet and scoreboard. UK never found a rhyme or reason by gaining just 216 total yards off 48 plays. Kentucky is at its best when it runs the football in order to set up the pass. The ‘Cats never got its ground game off the Davis Wade turf. The Bulldogs also owned the time of possession by a 41:10 to 18:50 margin. Saturday night was a perplexing performance on many levels. 

Kentucky was out of balance. 20 runs compared to 28 passes is not a winning formula for this football team. Let’s take a look at how the UK offense stacked up against pregame goals. 

Re-establish the run: Rush for more than 175 yards. 

NO. Mississippi State entered the game ranked third in the SEC after allowing 93 rush yards per game. Kentucky never committed to the run game and finished with 66 yards on the ground. Saturdays run-game inefficiencies followed a 51-yard outing vs. Georgia. Chris Rodriguez Jr. dealt with fumble issues and only carried the football eight times for 34 yards. 

Help Wan’Dale: Additional receivers contribute catches. 

NO. Will Levis completed 17 passes. Nine of those were caught by Wan’Dale Robinson. The receiver was targeted 13 times. Demarcus Harris had two catches including a touchdown and Josh Ali added a couple more for a combined 39 yards. UK had six different pass catchers compared to 12 for Miss State.   

Punch back: Counter pressure by popping explosive runs.  

NO. The Mississippi State defense can be a pressure-inducing nightmare of random chaos. The ‘Cats didn’t handle the Bulldogs up front and failed to capitalize with explosive plays on the ground. Adding to the mystery surrounding Kentucky’s performance in Starkville was that the ‘Dogs recorded just one tackle for loss and zero quarterback sacks. Runs just never popped. The longest of the night was a 15-yard scamper by Rodriguez Jr. UK’s disappointment in the run game could also be attributed to Kentucky’s lack of emphasis. 20 carries is a low number for a run-first offense. 

DEFENSE

The Mississippi State offense had its way against Kentucky. The Bulldogs ran 74 plays for 438 yards and 31 points. The Dogs averaged 5.5 yards per play. The Air Raid dinked and dunked all night. Will Rogers had a career night after going 36/39 for 344 yards and one touchdown. His 92.3% completion percentage broke an SEC record. Rogers should be commended for his performance. That display of accuracy would be difficult against air. 

Mike Leach broke tendencies by running the football 35 times. MSU gained 94 yards on the ground and took advantage of a light box to move the chains and score three rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone. The Bulldogs owned the line of scrimmage and kept the ‘Cats off balance for 60 minutes. Linebackers DeAndre Square, Jacquez Jones, and Trevin Wallace combined for 32 tackles and three tackles for loss. But, that wasn’t enough. 

Will Rogers continually threw short passes and carved up the UK pass defense. He also hit strategic strikes down the field after averaging 9.6-yards per completion. Tackling in space was also an issue. Saturday night was a bad outing by the UK defense on all three levels. Here’s how pregame goals compared to results. 

Slow the “Run”: Hold Mississippi State starting running backs to less than 65 combined receiving yards. 

NO. Jo’Quavious Marks and Dillon Johnson combined for 13 catches for 87 receiving yards. The short passing game to the RB’s was effective and damning for the ‘Cats. 

Break up passes: Cornerbacks intercept one pass and three PBU’s. 

NO. UK corners did not have a good night. Cedrick Dort, Carrington Valentine, and Quandre Mosely combined for eight tackles but failed to record an interception or pass breakup. As a defense, the ‘Cats had just two pass breakups against 36 pass attempts. The top of routes continues to be an issue for this defense. 

Make Rogers uncomfortable: Three QB sacks and rush the quarterback. 

NO. Kentucky registered two quarterback sacks. But, it did not have a QB hurry. Will Rogers mostly enjoyed ample time to dissect the Wildcat’s pass defense on his way to completing 92% of his passes. Will Rogers was excellent in diagnosing blitzes and replacing the charging defender with a pass catcher for a reception. 

Bend but don’t break. Be stout in the Red Zone. 

NO. Miss State scored three touchdowns from the 20-yard line in. All three were on the ground. MSU was the more physical football team. 

SPECIAL TEAMS 

The lone bright spot on a bleak night was Josh Ali’s 74-yard punt return for a touchdown. Kentucky was solid on special teams and was the best unit on the field. 

Block and tackle: No blocked kicks. 

YES. Kentucky remedied its placekicking issues. Matt Ruffolo nailed a 41-yarder. Collin Goodfellow averaged 53.7 yards per punt. 

What Does All This Mean? 

I did not have a good feeling about this one all week. Heck, I didn’t like the matchup during the offseason. Mississippi State took it to the Wildcats. Kentucky played its worst game of the season in a stadium in which it hasn’t won at since 2008. MSU scored 31 unanswered points after going down 10-0. Complete domination in Starkville. 

So, what’s next? Can Saturday be chalked up to a bad game or did Mississippi State expose deficiencies that have been masked by lesser competition? The answer is yes. 

If you think MSU’s offense and quarterback were dynamic, wait until Hendon Hooker and the fastball Volunteers roll into town. UT plays at warp speed and is scoring points in bunches. It will present many of the same problems that led to the ‘Cats demise in Starkville. 

Mark Stoops was not happy after Saturday’s game. Film study is not going to be enjoyable on Monday. Kentucky has a great deal of work to do in a short amount of time in order to avoid a three-game losing skid. But, the sky is not falling. The ‘Cats are 6-2 and still poised for a tremendous season with a high-level bowl game within grasp. Injuries are adding up much like every other team in college football. Multiple depth players were on the field for a high number of meaningful snaps. 

This week is going to be a soul-searching series of days leading up to a matchup against arch-rival Tennessee in a game that will define the 2021 Wildcats. The ‘Cats are 6-2. The glass is still half full on my porch. But, concerns are surfacing that were magnified after suffering an ugly road loss to Mississippi State.

A message from the Kentucky Army National Guard, The Kentucky Army National Guard is YOUR Kentucky home team.  The Soldiers of the Kentucky National Guard are your friends, neighbors, coworkers and classmates.  We are from each county in Kentucky and we stand together to support our fellow Kentuckians in times of natural disaster and civil unrest.  We also serve our nation at the direction of the president should the need for national defense arise.  Soldiers in the Kentucky Army National Guard are able to take advantage of opportunities in education with trade skill training, student loan repayment and up to $60,000 in tuition assistance to state public universities while serving part time.  Do you think you have what it takes to be a member of our team? For more information about joining the Kentucky Army National Guard, Text “KYGUARD” to 95577.  Live Here, Serve Here, Kentucky Army National Guard.