Kentucky vs. Mississippi State will have major NCAA Tournament implications

Wednesday night’s matchup in Starkville could end up playing a vital role in determining which team makes or misses the NCAA Tournament.

When Kentucky takes on Mississippi State later this week, the winner will put themselves squarely in the mix to crack the projected field of 68, while the loser will have to fight their way back in. According to ESPN Bracketologist Joe Lunardi, the Wildcats and Bulldogs are both teetering on the NCAA Tournament bubble. As of Monday, Lunardi has Mississippi State among the “Last Four In” group while Kentucky is just outside among the “First Four Out”.

Despite the Bulldogs sitting on a 5-7 record during SEC play, three Quad 1 wins compared to just one for Kentucky, which is 7-5 in the SEC, give them the edge right now. Mississippi State is also a combined 12-0 in Quads 3 and 4 opportunities while UK is 9-1 with an ugly loss to South Carolina from earlier in the season.

Looking at the NET rankings, Mississippi State checks in slightly ahead of Kentucky at No. 41 compared to No. 46 for the ‘Cats. According to BartTorvik’s numbers, the Bulldogs actually have a much higher chance to make the NCAA Tournament at this stage with 83.7 percent. Kentucky, on the other hand, is currently given a 37.2 percent chance to sneak into the field of 68.

Luckily for Kentucky, there will be plenty of games left on the schedule that can easily beef up the team’s overall resume, beginning down in Starkville. Mississippi State will be a Quad 1 opponent for the ‘Cats, which will have three more Quad 1 games left on the schedule, plus another quality Quad 2 game.

But Mississippi State is no pushover. First-year head coach Chris Jans had the Bulldogs firing out of the gate with an 11-0 start to the season and a No. 15 ranking in the AP Poll, but once the SEC schedule picked up, reality hit. MSU lost eight of its next nine games with the lone win being a 10-point victory over Ole Miss. But since then, Jans has his crew rolling once again, having won five in a row that includes an overtime win over No. 22 TCU and a road dub over Arkansas.

The ‘Cats and ‘Dogs will go head-to-head on Wednesday night at 8:30 p.m. EST on the SEC Network.