Kentucky vs. Ole Miss: National Media Predictions

A year ago, Kentucky went to Ole Miss and shocked the No. 6 Rebels. Will the Cats make it two in a row against Lane Kiffin’s squad? It would certainly surprise a lot of national media members.

Some talking heads are picking Kentucky to cover the +10 spread against the No. 20 Rebels (it’s down to +8.5 this morning), but none that I can find are calling for the Cats to pull off the upset. Here’s a roundup of predictions.

Ari Wasserman

Ari Wasserman shares his best bets with On3’s premium members each week. He’s banking on Ole Miss’ new quarterback, Austin Simmons, in Saturday’s rematch. Simmons threw for almost 350 yards and three touchdowns in Ole Miss’ opening win vs. Georgia State.

Ole Miss -10 at Kentucky: People are going to be hyper-fixated on what happened between these two teams last year. Now, Ole Miss is coming into the season with a new quarterback and a bunch of new players. Make no mistake, though. Austin Simmons is the real deal, and the Rebels are more than 10 points better than UK, even if the game is in Lexington.

Subscribe to KSR+ for all of Ari’s picks. No offense to our colleague, but I sure hope he’s wrong on this one.

Kick off the 2025 Kentucky football season with KSR Plus! We’re giving you behind-the-scenes intel you won’t find anywhere else. Join the most vibrant online community in BBN ahead of a pivotal season for Mark Stoops.

ESPN’s Bill Connelly

Connelly’s SP+ projections give Ole Miss an 84% chance of victory with a 16.1 point margin. He gives Kentucky’s defense some credit, but has concerns about the offense.

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No. 20 Ole Miss Rebels at Kentucky Wildcats (3:30, ABC). New Ole Miss starter Austin Simmons threw two early picks against Georgia State last week but eventually got rolling. He’ll likely find far more resistance against a Kentucky defense that held Toledo to 4.8 yards per play, but that will matter only if the Wildcats can score. They averaged a woeful 4.6 yards per play with two turnovers, and I’m pretty sure Ole Miss’ defense is better than Toledo’s.

Current line: Rebels -10.5 | SP+ projection: Rebels by 16.1 | FPI projection: Ole Miss by 11.5

Rece Davis and Pete Thamel

Pete Thamel picked the Cats to cover the spread, but Rece Davis has the Rebels winning “easily.”

CBS Sports

CBS Sports’ duo of Chris Hummer and Brad Crawford is split on who will cover the spread on Saturday, although both have Ole Miss winning the game.

Chris Hummer (Ole Miss – 10.5): I’ll take Ole Miss in this one. The Rebels are going to be very good. They have an excellent D-line that’s capable of slowing down Kentucky’s run game. And if that’s the case … Zach Calzada didn’t give me a lot to believe in last week in his Wildcats debut with a 10-for-23, 85-yard performance. Plus, Ole Miss is going to be very motivated coming into this game. After all, it’s a loss to Kentucky last year that kept the Rebels out of the playoff. … Ole Miss 35, Kentucky 20

Brad Crawford (Kentucky +10.5): Lane Kiffin will do everything in his power to hang a crooked number on the Wildcats after last season’s embarrassing home loss to Mark Stoops, but the last four games in this series have each been decided by three points or less. Kentucky has figured out Ole Miss, at least to an extent of keeping it competitive with a team that’s often more talented within the two-deep. The Rebels get their revenge in the form of a win, but fail to cover at Kroger Field. … Ole Miss 27, Kentucky 17

CBS Sports Staff

Against the Spread

Straight Up

Greg McElroy

McElroy is on the call for Kentucky vs. Ole Miss on ABC, so he didn’t give a prediction, but he did break down the game as thoroughly as any national media member has. He said four questions will decide who wins:

Can Kentucky’s defense contain Ole Miss’ explosive plays? The Cats prevented Ole Miss from finding its offensive groove a year ago; can they do it again this year?
Can Kentucky play keep away by running the football? Lots of praise for Dante Dowdell and Seth McGowan.
Can Ole Miss’ offensive line step up to the occasion? McElroy pointed to Mi’Quise Humphrey-Grace as being a potential difference-maker if he plays.
Can Kentucky’s revamped WR room get going? The running game performed well vs. Toledo, but Kentucky will need the passing game to get off the ground to upset the Rebels.

The Athletic’s Manny Navarro

In his “oddly specific” predictions, Navarro picks Ole Miss quarterback Austin Simmons to put up the most passing yards of any quarterback in Week 2.

Most passing yards

Austin Simmons’ first start produced a 63-7 win over Georgia State for Ole Miss. He threw for 341 yards and three touchdowns but also threw two interceptions. The 20th-ranked Rebels play Saturday at Kentucky, which gave up 270 yards through the air in a 24-16 win over Toledo. Simmons throws for 370-plus yards against the Wildcats, and Ole Miss gets revenge for last year’s loss to Kentucky by covering the 10.5-point spread.

Pro Football Focus

Sports Illustrated’s Iain MacMillan

This has all the makings of a blowout. The Wildcats’ only real offensive weapon is their ability to run the football, but Ole Miss led the nation last season in opponent yards per carry, allowing just 2.4 yards per rush. This is a nightmare stylistic matchup for Kentucky. Ole Miss wins this one in a rout.

Pick: Ole Miss -365