Kentucky vs. Ole Miss: Staff Predictions

by: KSR09/06/25

kentucky-vs-ole-miss-staff-predictions — Sep 28, 2024; Oxford, Mississippi, USA; Kentucky Wildcats defensive back Jordan Lovett (25) and linebacker Jayvant Brown (34) react after the Mississippi Rebels missed a game tying field goal during the second half at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

The national media doesn’t believe Kentucky can keep up with No. 20 Ole Miss in a rematch of last year’s upset in Oxford. What about the KSR crew?

It’s time to weigh in with our predictions. Good thing we’ve got Country Boy by our side.

Drew Franklin

If recent history is any indication, get ready for a thriller because Kentucky and Ole Miss don’t play boring football games. The last four meetings were all decided by a field goal or less, each hinging on one or two plays that settled everything.

This year, though, the questions around Mark Stoops’ operation at Kentucky are larger than ever. What will the offense look like against an SEC defense? The Wildcats leaned on the run and dominated late in the game against Toledo, but Ole Miss, ranked No. 20, presents a much tougher challenge defensively. Kentucky’s passing game will need to take a major step up from Week 1 to Week 2.

On the other side, Kentucky’s defense looks good enough to give the Cats a chance against a new QB in Austin Simmons, but it can only hold for so long without consistent help from the offense. Intercepting the first pass of the game would help things, but we can’t expect that again.

As much as I want to lean into the optimism, I think Ole Miss has the firepower to hand Kentucky an eighth straight home SEC loss. This spot feels eerily similar to Week 2 last year: a nationally televised game on ABC, hosting an SEC team with Big Blue Nation hoping to prove something after an opening non-conference win. Like that game, this outcome will go a long way toward defining the season’s trajectory. Hopefully, I’m wrong about that outcome in this prediction.

Prediction: Ole Miss 27, Kentucky 17

Nick Roush

If you were to create a team curated specifically to slow down Lane Kiffin’s Ole Miss Rebels, it would be Mark Stoops’ Kentucky Wildcats. Kiffin wants to win by knocking out opponents with haymakers. Stoops’ defense is designed to dodge those haymakers, forcing opponents to win with the jab.

The Kentucky secondary that forced Jaxson Dart to methodically move the ball down the field put Ole Miss into a pretzel at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. That entire group of defensive backs is suiting up on Saturday. The Rebels couldn’t get into a rhythm because they couldn’t run the ball to set up their deep shots. Ultimately, the Kentucky offense did just enough and caught a few breaks in an upset at Ole Miss.

The formula hasn’t changed. Ole Miss is not as talented as they were a year ago. Instead of relying on a third-year starter to carry their offensive weight, they’ll lean on a 19-year-old who’s starting in his first SEC game on the road. Kentucky’s defense will apply enough pressure to rattle the quarterback. The question is, can they take advantage of those opportunities?

This game will come down to a handful of plays in the second half. I predicted a Kentucky upset in July, and I’m not backing off that prediction now.

Prediction: Kentucky 23, Ole Miss 17

Tyler Thompson

A lot of things had to go Kentucky’s way last year in Oxford. The defense did its job by slowing down Ole Miss’ high-flying offense, but the offense pulled its weight too, totaling seven passing plays of 15+ yards, including a 63-yard bomb by Brock Vandagriff to Barion Brown on 4th and 7 in the fourth quarter to keep the winning touchdown drive alive. That touchdown required some luck, with Gavin Wimsatt fumbling the ball at the two-yard line and Josh Kattus scooping it up to score. Ole Miss also missed a field goal that would have tied the game with 48 seconds to go. The stars aligned for Kentucky’s only SEC win of the season.

Last week vs. Toledo, the Cats only had two passing plays of 15+ yards, one of which became a turnover when Willie Rodriguez fumbled the ball after a 23-yard gain. I have to think that Zach Calzada is better than he looked vs. the Rockets; however, if nerves really did play a part in his shaky performance, why should I be confident that they’ll disappear in his return to SEC play on the national stage?

Also making me uneasy: the fact that Lane Kiffin has been thinking about this game for almost a full calendar year. He all but admitted that Kentucky caught him off guard last season; having Mark Stoops beat him by taking a page out of his playbook with that 4th down gamble stung. The loss kept the Rebels out of the College Football Playoff. Jaxson Dart may be gone, but Austin Simmons has been preparing for this moment for years. Judging by the way he led Ole Miss on a touchdown drive in the upset over No. 2 Georgia a year ago, he’s capable. Don’t sleep on the Rebels’ running game either; they totaled almost 300 rushing yards to go with 400 in the air.

Kentucky’s defense will once again do its job to keep the Cats within striking distance for three quarters; the offense once again won’t do enough to close the gap. Part of me is worried this one could get ugly. I hope I’m wrong.

Score: Ole Miss 28, Kentucky 17

Zack Geoghegan

Week 2 usually brings some unexpected results, ones that don’t reflect how a team performed in Week 1. I think we’ll see that play out a bit on Saturday between these two teams. Ole Miss racked up 63 points in the opener against Georgia State, but it was a 17-7 game right before halftime. The Rebels’ offensive line didn’t impress, while Kentucky’s defense was a key strength in its win over Toledo. Ole Miss QB Austin Simmons is going to have to work harder for his explosive plays this week.

Kentucky’s defense will do more than enough to give the Wildcats a chance to pull off the upset, similar to last season’s showdown in Oxford. I struggle to have faith in the offense piecing together several scoring drives. That’s more about offensive coordinator Bush Hamdan than it is about quarterback Zach Calzada, too. UK has yet to score more than 20 points in a Power 4 game with Hamdan calling plays (just 14.1 points per game). If the ‘Cats can’t break 20 points in this game, I’m not sure when it will happen.

Ole Miss isn’t as talented as last season’s team that nearly made the College Football Playoff and has a much less experienced quarterback under center. Kentucky runs the damn ball to the tune of 155 yards as Jacob Kauwe drills a long field goal with time expiring for a massive home victory. I picked Ole Miss to win this game in my preseason predictions, but I found a way to talk myself into choosing the ‘Cats.

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Score: Kentucky 23, Ole Miss 20

Jack Pilgrim

I want to believe, I really do. I’m aware of the overwhelming roster turnover for the Rebels and the holes on the offensive line compared to the massive strength that is the Kentucky pass-rush. New quarterback making his first big boy start in the SEC, playing in what hopes to be a hostile road environment with Kroger Field a Blue-White Out. History suggests this game will be close, too, considering the last four matchups have been separated by a total of 10 points with no more than a field goal separating each result.

But Lane Kiffin is Lane Kiffin, folks. He all but made fun of Kentucky’s win in Oxford last fall, joking that Mark Stoops had to get completely “out of character” and do something he hasn’t “probably ever done in his life” to pull off the miraculous upset. “I commend him for doing that,” he said. There is always a little truth to just kidding, and the idea of getting beaten at his own game undoubtedly crushed him — especially knowing that was likely the difference in a spot in the College Football Playoff.

“It was horrible. … It all sucked,” Kiffin said this week.

He wants this one more than the rest. He overlooked Kentucky last year and won’t make the same mistake again. The Wildcats get off to a strong start thanks to some elite defensive play, but the offense can’t keep up thanks to a disastrous passing attack and the Rebels finish off the comfortable win to keep the Kroger Field SEC losing streak alive. Time for Cutter?

Score: Ole Miss 27, Kentucky 13

Adam Luckett

The Kentucky football rebuild will be put to the test on Saturday afternoon at Kroger Field. Did the plan to reset this program work? We’re about to find out.

UK has given Ole Miss some fits in the last two meetings, mostly due to style of play. The defense has stopped the run, taken away the big pass play, and the offense has been able to churn out enough first downs to create a close game that is decided late in the fourth quarter. I bet we see something similar on Saturday afternoon.

There is no hiding from the significance of this matchup for UK. The home losing streak looms large and this program desperately needs something positive to happen. By Halloween, I think Ole Miss will be a better football team than Kentucky. However, I do not believe they will be a better football team than Kentucky in Week 2.

Timing, style of play, and desperation (maybe even motivation) are on Kentucky’s side. The defense takes advantage of the situation (first road start for Austin Simmons), the offense efficiently runs the football, and finds a way to score enough points.

The first one to 21 points wins. Kentucky gets there by winning the turnover battle, beating Ole Miss at the line of scrimmage, and getting just enough plays from the passing game as Mark Stoops records yet another big win in Week 2.

Score: Kentucky 24, Ole Miss 21

Jacob Polacheck

Kentucky is looking to pull off another upset over Lane Kiffin’s Ole Miss Rebels after last year’s surprise in Oxford. UK has a team that could cause problems for Ole Miss with a defense that stood strong in week one. This Ole Miss team is another beast than Toledo, however.

If Ole Miss can slow down Kentucky’s rushing attack, it could be long day for the UK offense. They’ll need a big game from Zach Calzada to pull off the upset. I’m not predicting that to happen. Kentucky will have to make things tough on Austin Simmons, but also avoid mistakes. I didn’t see the discipline in week one to make me think UK will win this.

Score: Ole Miss 28, Kentucky 17

Country Boy’s Prediction

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