KSR Staff Predictions: Kentucky vs. Purdue

by: KSR2 hours ago

kentucky-vs-purdue-ksr-staff-predictions-preview — Mar 22, 2025; Providence, RI, USA; Purdue Boilermakers mascot during the first half of a second round men’s NCAA Tournament game McNeese State Cowboys at Amica Mutual Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

Kentucky plays a basketball game tonight, and it’s against the No. 1 team in the country. Sure, it’s just an exhibition, but it sure won’t feel like it when the ball is tipped vs. Purdue in a sold-out Rupp Arena at 6 p.m. ET (SEC Network).

Purdue is the No. 1 team in the country with good reason. The Boilermakers return three stars from last year’s team that lost to No. 1 seed Houston in the Sweet 16: consensus First Team All-American guard Braden Smith; forward Trey Kaufman-Renn, who led the team in scoring last season; and senior guard Fletcher Loyer. Joining the frontcourt is San Diego State transfer Oscar Cluff, who ranked second in the country in rebounding last season (12.3 boards per game).

Kentucky will be shorthanded tonight, playing without Jaland Lowe, who suffered a shoulder injury in the Blue-White Game. Lowe is expected to return to live action next week and should make his debut as a Wildcat soon, but the Cats will be without their starting point guard. Can they pull off an upset without him? The KSR crew is ready to weigh in.

Tyler Thompson

Kentucky’s playing with house money tonight. Not only is it an exhibition, but Jaland Lowe (and Jayden Quaintance) is out, so if the Cats lose, the result is especially easy to dismiss. When you consider how Kentucky scrambled to come up with backcourt solutions last year due to injuries, the fact that they’re getting a head start on experimenting — against a team like Purdue — could even be seen as a good thing. I’d expect Denzel Aberdeen to start at point guard after filling in ably at Florida last year, but I’m sure we’ll see a healthy dose of Jasper Johnson and Collin Chandler there, too. It’ll be fun — and sometimes frustrating, I’m sure — to see how they do against Braden Smith, considered the best player in college basketball this season.

All eyes will be on the frontcourt, but I’m eager to see how Kentucky does in the other matchups. Otega Oweh vs. sophomore C.J. Cox at the two-guard may be the only one-on-one in which Kentucky has a clear advantage. Everyone raves about Braden Smith, but Trey Kaufman-Renn led the Boilermakers in scoring last season. I can’t wait to see what Mo Dioubate does against him. With Jayden Quaintance still rehabbing from ACL surgery, Brandon Garrison will likely start against Oscar Cluff down low. Is BG really ready to take a step forward? Tonight’s game will be a good test. And then, what does Kentucky do on the wing? Will Collin Chandler’s versatility and athleticism win out vs. Fletcher Loyer, or will one of Kentucky’s shooters (Kam Williams, Trent Noah, Jasper Johnson) get hot?

Purdue’s got the stars, but Kentucky’s got the depth. With a rowdy Rupp Arena crowd behind them, I think the Cats will pull off the upset. It’ll be a clunky game at times, but as he did so many times last season, Otega Oweh will take charge, and the rest of the team will follow, showing off that competitive fire we’ve heard Mark Pope rave about so much this preseason. Good luck telling them the result doesn’t matter; the same goes for the fans if Kentucky comes out on top.

Score: Kentucky 87, Purdue 85

Jacob Polacheck

This could be another story if Kentucky were at full strength. The Cats are expected to be without Jaland Lowe and Jayden Quaintance for Friday’s game against Purdue.

That will be no easy task. The Boilermakers are the nation’s top team heading into the season, led by elite point guard Braden Smith. We won’t get to see the Lowe-Smith matchup that we’ve been waiting for, nor will we see Quaintance compete against Purdue’s improved frontcourt of Daniel Jacobsen and Oscar Cluff.

That’ll put pressure on Otega Oweh to do what he does best as he returns from a toe injury. I’ll be watching to see how players like Denzel Aberdeen and Jasper Johnson step up in Lowe’s absence. Kentucky has the depth, and if they get good performances all across the board. For now, I’m not picking against the preseason No. 1 team.

Score: Purdue 89, Kentucky 84

Zack Geoghegan

You never quite know what you’re going to get out of exhibitions, even more so now that DI teams can play other DI teams. Results across the country so far in the preseason have surprised. Travis Perry hit four three-pointers in Ole Miss’ win over No. 2 Houston, for example (too soon to bring him up?). How a team looks in late October will not be reflective of how they’ll look come March. That’ll be especially true with this Kentucky team, as Lowe and Quaintance will be sidelined for tonight.

But that’s what’s so fun about following Kentucky basketball — every game is a must-win, even the exhibitions, and even with the injuries. Mark Pope will have that message communicated to his team. There is a lot of pressure on this season’s Wildcat squad, but you could say the pressure falls more so on top-ranked Purdue. Braden Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn are All-Americans. Boilermaker fans will be going into this game expecting a win as much as the Big Blue Nation.

This will be our first chance to see Kentucky play another school — that alone has me excited. I’ll be watching closely to see how Otega Oweh looks after only having a couple of weeks under his belt following a 10-week break due to turf toe. The point guard by committee situation is another major storyline. To steal one from my KSR friend Brandon Ramsey, how will UK’s rebounding look against Purdue’s size?

I won’t be expecting a pretty game of basketball from either side. But I will be expecting Kentucky to keep this game competitive. The ‘Cats ultimately sneak out of Rupp with a one-possession win.

Kentucky 81, Purdue 79

Nick Roush

There is no reason to believe that this Kentucky team can be far ahead of this Purdue team in October. The Boilermakers are bringing back just about everybody from last year. Kentucky has returning production, but let’s not kid ourselves, Otega Oweh is the only significant contributor from that Sweet 16 loss to Tennessee. Oh, and and he just started practicing a couple weeks ago after suffering a foot injury.

The good news? This is a house money game, the most house money game in the history of house money. A loss means nothing, absolutely nothing. A win, and you feel great about this team’s ability to adapt.

Kentucky needs to determine who can serve as a primary ball-handler in Lowe’s absence. There is no better test than the one they’re facing tonight. Ultimately, it won’t be good enough, but it will be a good experience that will pay dividends down the road.

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Score: Purdue 90, Kentucky 82

Drew Franklin

Even though it’s technically an exhibition, it won’t feel like one in Rupp Arena on Friday night. The debut of Mark Pope’s new Kentucky team comes against preseason No. 1 Purdue, a matchup that sounds more like an Elite Eight than a preseason tune-up.

The Wildcats will be without freshman point guard Jaland Lowe, who suffered a shoulder injury in the Blue-White scrimmage, leaving a major hole in the backcourt opposite Purdue’s consensus All-American floor general, Braden Smith. On paper, that’s a mismatch, but emotion often outweighs execution when Rupp is rocking—and Rupp will absolutely be rocking.

Kentucky fans have waited months for their first real glimpse at the new Wildcats, and they won’t treat it like a meaningless preseason event. Expect an atmosphere that feels more March than October, and a group of Wildcats eager to prove they belong on the same floor as the nation’s top-ranked team. Purdue’s experience and talent will keep things tight, but the home crowd, adrenaline, and depth of Pope’s “beautiful Ferrari” will carry Kentucky to a statement-setting exhibition win.

Score: Kentucky 84, Purdue 80

Adam Luckett

The biggest exhibition game in college basketball history has finally arrived. Is that hyperbole? I don’t really care at this point. Two Final Four contenders will meet at Rupp Arena on Friday night. We will likely be treated to spread tempo basketball with shotmaking, spaced offense, and a boatload of three-point attempts.

This one will be fun.

I believe these teams are very even entering this matchup but feel that people are sleeping on Purdue’s frontcourt. Trey Kaufman-Renn is an All-American contender and South Dakota State transfer Oscar Cluff was a very nice pickup for Matt Painter in the portal. Add in potential Naismith Award winner Braden Smith at point guard and UK will have multiple difficult challenges to deal with on defense.

The Cats have the overall team athleticism and depth to give Purdue problems, but the absence of Jaland Lowe will be felt. This one has a ton of lead changes, and it could be a game where both teams blow double-digit leads. Smith takes over at the under four-minute timeout and leads the Big Ten team to a win that does not count. We will learn a lot about where Kentucky’s ballscreen defense is tonight.

Score: Purdue 87, Kentucky 86

Jack Pilgrim

I’ve never been more excited for anything in my life. Well, that’s probably not true, but it’s definitely something we’ll be talking about for a long, long time — by far the best exhibition game Kentucky has ever played. I want to believe in the Wildcats and believe the depth will absolutely put them in position to make a late push, but Jaland Lowe’s absence is the difference, unfortunately. Braden Smith, Trey Kaufman-Renn and Fletcher Loyer are as good a three-man group you’ll find in college basketball and I love the addition of South Dakota State transfer Oscar Cluff compared to 7’4″ center Daniel Jacobsen, the next giant under Matt Painter (still a big work in progress, in my opinion).

BBN will treat this game like a Final Four matchup — there is a real chance the two teams see each other again in Indianapolis — but while Mark Pope desperately wants to win, he’s also got a lot to figure out in terms of the rotation. And there is no better tinkering opportunity than against the best of the best. He’s trying to learn what he has vs. real competition, and that could lead to some moments of brilliance and others of disaster. He’ll go big and small, defense-first and offense-first, skill and athleticism, finding what sticks. Don’t expect the prettiest thing in the world, even if we’re having a blast understanding it’s a win-win for the Cats. Win this one without Lowe and Jayden Quaintance and you’ll never hear the end of it from BBN. Lose and, well, you were without Lowe and Quaintance against the best team in the country. No impact on your resume one way or the other.

Kentucky plays well, but Purdue plays a little better thanks to roster continuity at their best positions. The Boilermakers are better-equipped for a faster start out of the gates with a combined 295 starts between Smith, Kaufman-Renn and Loyer. We’d be having a different conversation if both teams were at full strength, but for now, we’ll just enjoy an incredible night of college basketball and live with the result.

Score: Purdue 84, Kentucky 80