KSR Staff Predictions: Kentucky vs. Toledo

by: KSR08/29/25

kentucky-vs-toledo-ksr-staff-predictions-score — Kentucky cheerleaders perform at Kroger Field - Photo by Dr. Michael Huang | Kentucky Sports Radio

After a long offseason, it’s finally time for Kentucky Football to turn the page. On Saturday, the Cats host the Toledo Rockets, the preseason pick to win the MAC (12:45 p.m. ET, SEC Network). Jason Candle’s squad is not your usual season-opening foe; last year, they beat two Power Four teams, including Mississippi State by 24 points in Starkville.

The spread has been all over the place, starting at -13.5 Kentucky earlier this summer and shrinking to just -7.5 on Monday. It’s now -10 Cats, who desperately need to start this season on a good note. With 50 newcomers on the roster, including starting quarterback Zach Calzada, will they do it? It’s time for the KSR crew to weigh in.

Tyler Thompson

I’ve overthought this game into oblivion. On one hand, Toledo is legit, a perennial Group of Five power with the most stable staff in college football and plenty of returning stars, including quarterback Tucker Gleason. The Rockets proved last season that they aren’t scared of the SEC. Even with a new quarterback, a new backfield, and a seemingly reinforced offensive line, I worry Kentucky will be able to score consistently. Hopefully, the defensive line lives up to the preseason hype.

On the other hand, I do believe that this Kentucky team will play hard — which is something we couldn’t say about last year’s squad at times. The culture in the locker room is reportedly light-years better than a year ago, and I’m sure the Cats will be eager to prove themselves. The best place to start is in the trenches. We can wring our hands about Zach Calzada vs. Cutter Boley all we want, but for Kentucky to succeed this season, it needs to return to its roots with the rushing attack. Seth McGowan and Dante Dowdell will lead the Cats to a win on Saturday — although it’ll be closer than we all like.

Score: Kentucky 30, Toledo 24

Nick Roush

After watching Toledo take down Mississippi State on the road, there’s a fair amount of apprehension around BBN ahead of the season opener. The Rockets have more returning production than any other team in the MAC. They will provide a stress test, particularly for Kentucky’s wide receivers, but ultimately, the Rockets don’t have big enough guns to slow down what will be a big, physical running game. It will probably be close at half before the Kentucky offense figures it out and runs away with a win by airing it out.

Score: Kentucky 34, Toledo 17

Adam Luckett

The MAC gave every Big Ten team on the schedule on Thursday night a scare. I believe that will remain a trend all weekend. Kentucky has performed well in this spot in the past but the Rockets present some real challenges. Ultimately, the difference ends up becoming Kentucky’s trench play as the home team rolls up 250-plus rushing yards. Toledo wins the turnover battle and has the ball late in the fourth quarter with a chance to win the game. UK holds on in a tightly contested contest.

Score: Kentucky 27, Toledo 21

Zack Geoghegan

We will learn rather quickly just how improved Kentucky’s offensive line is compared to last season. If the camp reports are true and there is new life for the Big Blue Wall, we’re going to see a multi-touchdown victory for the Wildcats. Mark Stoops will get back to his ways of running the damn ball while Zach Calzada does enough to keep the Toledo defense honest. We might even end up seeing some Cutter Boley action in the second half. Look out for a long Ty Bryant punt return, too. Kentucky starts off 1-0 going into another massive showdown with Ole Miss.

Score: Kentucky 31, Toledo 17

Jack Pilgrim

Early MACtion has been electric, testing bigger-name foes as underdogs to open the college football schedule. Now, the projected winner of that conference is coming to Kroger Field looking to make a statement in front one of the most disgruntled fanbases in the SEC. Mark Stoops knows what’s on the line here, a season-opening loss derailing his prove-it year before it really even begins with his seat getting toasty without playing a league game. To his credit, this is where he shines brightest, looking to shut up his haters by coaching with an edge that trickles down to his players. This year is about a culture reset, getting back to the blue-collar days of bringing his lunch pail to work.

It’s not the prettiest thing in the world — you can’t ever really say that about the Cats — but they take care of business with a two-touchdown victory to feel good entering SEC play. Dante Dowdell is Kentucky’s MVP.

Score: Kentucky 28, Toledo 13

Jacob Polacheck

I might have been the low man on KSR when it came to 2025 Kentucky season predictions, but that doesn’t mean I’m picking the Cats to lose right away. Kentucky’s run game could be a problem for the Rockets, and I’m expecting that to be the difference-maker.

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With Seth McGowan and Dante Dowdell in the backfield, Toledo’s defense will have its hands full all day. They might keep it close, but I’m picking the Cats to come away with a one-score victory.

Score: Kentucky 31, Toledo 24

Drew Franklin

It feels so good to be back in prediction season. This post is yet another weekly tradition to return for the fall, changing all of the offseason speculation to real football in front of us. The wait is over—Kentucky kicks off the 2025 season on Saturday, and it’s time to pick a winner.

The opener against Toledo is no cupcake. Jason Candle has built one of the most consistent programs in all of college football, and the Rockets will show up in Lexington with confidence. They won two Power 4 games just last year, including a road SEC win in Starkville.

But for me, this one comes down to where games are always won and lost: up front. Kentucky is built—at least it better be—to handle its business in the trenches. The offensive line knows it needs to be the team’s strength, and that identity slipped the last few years. Week 1 is a chance to prove they’re back to Big Blue Wall form, as Bush Hamdan suggested. Combine that with a stable of backs who can wear down a defense, and I think Kentucky leans hard on the run game until Toledo breaks.

Defensively, Kentucky’s front should control the line of scrimmage. If that D-line is as good as we expect it to be, they’ll punish Toledo with the mismatch.

I’m excited to be making these picks again, and even more excited to predict that Kentucky starts 1-0 and covers the point spread in Game 1. I don’t think it’ll be perfect—it rarely is in an opener—but I do think the Wildcats take control early with physicality and finish with a comfortable win.

Prediction: Kentucky 34, Toledo 17

Country Boy’s Prediction

Kentucky fans will celebrate with an ice-cold Country Light. Easy drinking and refreshing with only 95 calories and 1.8 carbs. Grab your 12-pack today!