The Kentucky vs. Toledo Line is Moving Down: What do the Sharps Know?

The college football season kicks off in one month. That’s more than enough time to plan ahead. While researching some wagers to make for the 2025 college football season, I was scrolling through the BetMGM app when I saw the line for Kentucky vs. Toledo and something was off.

The Wildcats opened as 12.5-point favorites over the Rockets. That number has dropped. It’s now Kentucky -10. One book has it all the way down to UK -9.5.

Line movement happens all the time. But a whole field goal? For a season-opener between the SEC and the MAC? What’s going on?

This isn’t New to Toledo

In a league defined by MACtion volatility, Jason Candle has created the league’s most consistent program. Candle has taken Toledo to the postseason in seven of his nine seasons, and the Rockets have three straight seasons with at least eight wins.

In 2024, one of those wins was on the road at Mississippi State. They didn’t just beat the Bulldogs, they were dominant. The Rockets took a 28-3 halftime lead before tallying nearly 500 yards of offense in a 41-17 win at Davis Wade Stadium. Toledo was picked to win the MAC in the preseason coaches’ poll.

[KSR Plus: Early Toledo Rockets Scouting Report]

Mark Stoops isn’t Overlooking Toledo

During Monday’s season-opening press conference, Mark Stoops was asked about the importance of getting his team prepared quickly. There isn’t a lot of runway in September. The Wildcats have an SEC game at home in week two against an Ole Miss team that won 10 games.

“We got a big game in week one,” Stoops interjected. “Honestly, that’s not coach speak. I think you all could recognize that a team that’s picked to win the MAC, and a very, very mature football team, and well-coached and everything. That’s going to be a big game, and that’ll get us prepared, because we have to be prepared for week one.”

The Power Rankings Check Out

There’s a method to the madness for gambling sharps. Most professional sports gamblers devise their own power rankings to find an edge against the books. If their power ranking deviates from the line, they hammer it.

That is certainly the case for Kentucky’s season-opener. Even though the Wildcats were 12.5-point favorites on the opening line, Bill Connelly’s updated SP+ power rankings have the line closer to Kentucky -8.5. That difference is enough for sharp money to side with the Rockets.

Will the sharps be right? We’ll find out when Kentucky hosts Toledo on Aug. 30 at Kroger Field.