KSR Staff Predictions: Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt

by: KSR2 hours ago

kentucky-vs-vanderbilt-ksr-staff-predictions-2 — The Vanderbilt Commodores mascot prior to Star Walk before the game against the Florida Gators at Vanderbilt Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-Imagn Images

Kentucky brings a three-game winning streak down I-65 to Nashville. Will all the momentum be enough to knock off the No. 14 Vanderbilt Commodores to clinch bowl eligibility?

Kentucky fans typically take over Vandy’s stadium, but not this year. FirstBank Stadium is sold out for Diego Pavia’s Senior Day. The ‘Dores are still in the College Football Playoff conversation, with games vs. Kentucky and Tennessee remaining. They’re coming off a bye. The Cats could play spoiler, but to pull off the upset, they’ll have to contain Pavia, never an easy task, especially when Kentucky has so many injuries on defense.

Will Kentucky make it four wins in a row and secure bowl eligibility before heading to Louisville next week? The KSR crew is ready to weigh in.

Nick Roush

I hate how good I feel about this matchup, which is why I now feel bad about it. Sorry for talking in circles. Diego Pavia can put your brain into a pretzel.

Sadly, that’s the part I can’t quite overcome. There are many reasons to believe that Kentucky is going to put Vanderbilt in hell for 60 minutes. The Commodores’ defense stinks. Kentucky has confidence. They’re executing in critical situations and forcing turnovers. It’s the perfect storm to pull off an upset.

But then there’s Pavia. That guy has to have a horseshoe stuck up his you-know-what. How else can you explain how he keeps doing this?

Cutter Boley has been outstanding, but all of those outstanding performances have been at home. Even if he’s putting up big numbers on the road, it’s hard to foresee him outplaying the other QB on Diego’s last day in Nashville. Whatever deal he made with the devil is working for at least another week.

Score: Vanderbilt 28, Kentucky 27

Adam Luckett

Vanderbilt is having a dream season. The Commodores are just a Senior Day victory away from creating a “win and in” situation against Tennessee next weekend for a College Football Playoff bid. Kentucky has to play spoiler.

Clark Lea’s team is coming off a late-season bye with a defense that hasn’t been able to stop a nosebleed (specifically through the air) as the season winds down. In comes a Kentucky offense that is showing improvement each week with a young ascending quarterback. The road dog is a dangerous opponent.

However, these two teams both want to play ball control football. That means limited possessions. A game like this will magnify situational football. Third/fourth down, red zone, turnovers, penalties, and the Middle Eight will all be gigantic.

It’s going to be hard to beat Diego Pavia in a game like this.

Kentucky will score points and will have a chance to win this game in the fourth quarter. But Pavia just has the magic. It will come down to getting a key stop late. Can UK’s defense make the game-changing play late? It’s hard to pick against Pavia after seeing him put on the cape against Texas and Auburn with some fourth-quarter heroics.

Vandy wins a thriller in a game where both quarterbacks exchange haymakers.

Score: Vanderbilt 35, Kentucky 31

Drew Franklin

Kentucky Football is on a heater, winning three straight games with a newfound offense led by Cutter Boley. I think that offense will travel to Nashville and continue to move the ball and score at a rate we hadn’t seen in two years until a month ago.

However, the injury report on the defensive side of the ball concerns me. Kentucky’s secondary is depleted entering the final SEC game, which happens to be Senior Day for Vanderbilt’s star quarterback, Diego Pavia. I worry Pavia will put on one last show for the home Vandy crowd, a sell-out in the Music City for the Kentucky game.

Boley and the offense score, but Pavia scores more. Kentucky’s bowl dreams hinge on the Governor’s Cup next week. I feel better about that one.

Score: Vanderbilt 34, Kentucky 31

Tyler Thompson

Kentucky has the chance to play spoiler on Diego Pavia’s Senior Day. Momentum is a dangerous thing. If not for all the injuries on defense, I’d pick the Cats to upset the ‘Dores. That’s how excited I am about what Cutter Boley has done for this team, a storyline that I hope gets some shine amid all the Pavia talk.

But Pavia is a folk hero and a Heisman candidate for a reason. As mentioned, Kentucky’s defense is banged up, so the ‘Dores will score points. Behind Boley, Seth McGowan, and Kendrick Law, the Cats will too. I’m looking forward to the Boley vs. Pavia shootout in the renovated and sold-out FirstBank Stadium. Kentucky fans usually dominate the crowd, but Vandy’s got new-money energy right now. The ‘Dores are the coolest team in Nashville, which would make it even more fun to ruin the party. The road team has won the last four games in the series, after all.

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But still, that injury report worries me. I think the Cats will hang with the ‘Dores until late, but Pavia will have one last magic moment in his final game in Nashville. Either way, Kentucky will carry a lot of momentum in the season-finale at Louisville, which is when the Cats will clinch bowl eligibility.

Score: Vanderbilt 31, Kentucky 28

Jacob Polacheck

Kentucky is on a roll, but Vanderbilt will be the toughest test of its recent games. Diego Pavia is fresh off an excellent performance in an overtime win over Auburn.

The Cutter Boley vs. Diego Pavia quarterback battle is one I’m excited for. Kentucky’s offense has figured things out recently, but will it be enough to stop a Vandy team that’s top 10 scoring nationally? UK could put an end to Pavia’s Heisman hopes with a win, but on the road, this won’t be easy.

I expect this game to come down to the wire. I’ve been predicting a lot of blowouts this season, but I’m predicting that this one will be very close. In the end, I’m still picking against the Cats.

Score: Vanderbilt 30, Kentucky 26

Zack Geoghegan

Why not have some fun with this one? Kentucky is riding the most momentum it’s had all season, and the timing couldn’t be better. The Wildcats are even kinda, sorta, a little tiny bit fun to watch right now? Cutter Boley is the real deal, going up against a pass defense in Vanderbilt that just gave up 328 passing yards to Texas and 353 more to Auburn. The latter even racked up 210 yards on the ground against the Commodores. Boley and the UK rushing attack should have no problem finding the end zone in Nashville. Vanderbilt is bleeding points defensively right now.

But Vanderbilt also has Diego Pavia under center. He threw for 365 yards and three touchdowns against Texas, then 377 yards and three more touchdowns against Auburn. The Commodores are wins over Kentucky and Tennessee away from potentially reaching the College Football Playoff. That’s enough to believe they’ll come out playing at a very high level. But I’m going to believe in Brad White’s defense, even with so many injuries to the secondary, as Kentucky shocks the college football world and plays spoiler for a CFP hopeful.

Score: Kentucky 31, Vanderbilt 24

Jack Pilgrim

Goodness, buncha Debbie Downers I work with, huh? I’m disappointed in all of them except Mr. Geoghegan — at least he’s got some sense.

The Cats are back, baby. Can’t stop, won’t stop. I’ve never been more confident in anything in my life, Kentucky traveling down to Lexington South and taking Vanderbilt out of College Football Playoff contention, ruining Diego Pavia’s Senior Day. Mark Stoops is good for one of these every year, and I’m not counting Auburn and Florida with their disastrous real-time coaching situations toward that. Those didn’t really turn heads; this one with SEC Nation in Nashville and with bowl eligibility on the line will do it.

Cutter Boley is the face of the program and he’s gaining momentum in a hurry with very real chemistry with some of his pass-catchers. Factor in Seth McGowan’s relentless production and stout play up front, and I think this turns into a shootout — right up Diego Pavia’s alley. The partying in Miami and Vegas finally catches up to him, though, and a late pick-six for the Cats sends Stoops and Co. back to the postseason.

Score: Kentucky 33, Vanderbilt 28

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