KSR Golf: The Players Championship

The 2023 PGA Tour season has been up and running for a couple of months now. KSR Golf is ready to join the party.

For the biggest event of the season, we’re returning for some handicap content as the best golfers in the world have arrived in Greater Jacksonville for what some like to call “the fifth major championship”.

All eyes this weekend will be on TPC Sawgrass and the island green at No. 17 for The Players Championship. Let’s find some winners.

Course layout

The Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass is one of the most popular courses on the tour. Measuring in at 7,256 yards, the Par 72 layout includes bermuda grass on the greens and a very large purse.

To combat LIV, the PGA Tour elevated numerous tournaments this season to increase payouts. Once again, the prize money at The Players is top shelf. The purse comes in at $20 million with 86 percent of the top 50 golfers in the OWGR participating this weekend.

The Pete Dye design challenges golfers in multiple ways ultimately rewarding the ball strikers. The exciting finish (Par 5 16, island green Par 3 at 17, and tight par 4 at 18 with water on the left) can create some dramatics late in the tournament.

Birdies can be had here, but you can also see a lot of bogeys if players don’t have a good feel for their irons this week.

Advanced stat of the week

This course will punish you with inaccurate second shots. TPC Sawgrass is long enough that even the biggest bombers will need to hit solid approach shots to give themselves a legit chance at makeable birdie putts.

Strokes gained approach is the metric we’re focusing on this week while also paying attention to the off-the-tee numbers.

Tony Finau sits at No. 3 in strokes gained approach and is worth some consideration. The No. 13 ranked golfer has seven top-25 finishes in eight starts this season with one win. Finau has played Sawgrass six times and has never finished inside the top 20 with just two cuts made. However, his game fits the model this week.

Luckett’s Locks

Max Homa has made eight starts this season an outright win (Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines), a runner-up (The Genesis Invitational at Riviera) and four top-10 finishes. The top-10 golfer has a hot stick right now and finished T-13 in his second Players appearance last year. Homa ranks No. 6 in approach and No. 9 in tee-to-green.

Homa has value to win (20/1), per Draft Kings. However, the best play here is a top-10 (+210).

Jhonattan Vegas ranks inside the top 10 in strokes gained off the tee (No. 6) and inside the top 30 in strokes gained approach (No. 27). The 38-year-old pro from Venezuela has a pair of top-10 finishes at Sawgrass in his career with three top-25 finishes in five starts this season.

I feel very good about a top-20 (+550) play for Vegas this weekend.

Jason Day has three top-10 finishes at Sawgrass with five made cuts here in his last six starts. The 2016 Players champ ranks No. 12 in strokes gained approach with nine made cuts in 11 starts. Day can contend here. Let’s jump on a top-20 (+125) finish.

What a wild card this weekend? Rickie Fowler has been quietly playing some good golf. The Puma man has won here before. You can get great odds (60/1) for Fowler to win again, but a top-five finish (12/1) feels like a safe play that could hit.