KSR Golf: John Deere Classic

KSR Golf bounced back with another strong week at the Travelers Championship as Xander Schauffele cashed a win ticket at 20/1 to give us consecutive winning weekends. We’re not stopping now.

The Open Championship is just two weeks away, and most players are taking this week off as everyone travels a week early to play in the Scottish Open. That means it’s John Deere Classic time on the PGA Tour.

KSR Golf is returning to find some winners.

Course layout

TPC Deere Run is home to the John Deere Classic, and yearly this is one of the easiest courses on the PGA Tour. There will be a birdie party in Illinois this weekend.

The Par 71 layout stretches 7,289 yards with not many challenges for the professionals. There will be 156 players participating with 65 plus ties making it to the weekend. Getting on the green in regulation and avoiding bogeys will be important.

At Draft Kings, Adam Hadwin is the current betting favorite despite ranking No. 80 overall in the OWGR. That should tell you how light the field is. A winner could come from anywhere thanks to the scoring opportunities and parity in the participants.

Expect some low scores as we could see a wild finish on Sunday.

Advanced stat of the week

More times than not, this has played as a second-shot course. The players that use their short irons and wedges the best will have an advantage over the field. However, TPC Deere Run is long enough that the driver can have value.

KSR Golf will be focusing on strokes gained tee-to-green to find our selections. Those who create the easiest second shots and putts should have a great chance at contending.

Martin Laird is fresh off of a T-13 finish at the Travelers with 10 made cuts in 17 events this season. At No. 30 in strokes gained tee-to-green, the Scottish golfer is the highest-ranked player in our metric this week. Laird has some high value to win at 70/1.

Luckett’s Locks

Sahith Theegala is in his rookie season on the PGA Tour, and the 24-year-old is making some noise. The No. 66 player in the world nearly had two wins this season if it wasn’t for a bad tee shot at No. 17 at the WM Phoenix Open and a double-bogey on 18 at the Travelers Championship. However, the young player is one of the best golfers in the field this week. Theegala ranks just of the top-50 in strokes gained tee-to-green, and has made six consecutive cuts with a pair of top-five finishes.

Theegala is our pick to bring home his first PGA Tour win this week at 25/1.

Charles Howell III is one of the better strokes gained tee-to-green players in the field and has made 10 of 15 cuts this season. Howell is fresh off of a solid performance at the Travelers and brings good form to the John Deere Classic. We’re locking a top-10 play (+275).

Tyler Duncan is a 32-year-old Purdue alum who has been grinding with 12 cuts in 21 played events this season. With a top-50 tee-to-green ranking he fits our statistical profile. Duncan has eight top-40 finishes and should have a great shot at another in a light field. We’re locking in a top-40 pick (+130).