KSR Roundtable: Picking the Winner of Kentucky Derby 149
“Who’s your Derby horse?” It’s a question I ask approximately 128 times in the lead-up to each and every Kentucky Derby. Instead of asking strangers in the infield, today we’re asking KSR’s “experts” which horse will win the run for the roses.
Nick Roush
On Blue Grass Stakes Day I was overjoyed to see Tapit Trice win. “Now we’ll get Forte at a great price on Derby day.” I haven’t even thought about Forte this week. Each year my list of contenders grows and grows. Narrowing it down to just a few for a big trifecta ticket is always difficult. That process will not conclude until about an hour before post time, but there’s one horse I’ve fallen for this week on the backside at Churchill Downs.
Disarm is a 30-1 long shot that has not won a race since August, yet I can’t not place a winning wager on this horse. Running into Steve Asmussen felt serendipitous, especially after Disarm worked out so well at Churchill Downs. I love to bet horses with continually improving speed figures and he’s done just that. It feels like he’s peaking at the right time so I will ride with Disarm to pull off a big upset in Kentucky Derby 149.
Pick: Disarm
Others Contenders in my Exotics: Tapit Trice, Forte, Angel of Empire, Verifying, Two Phil’s
Adam Luckett
The 2023 Kentucky Derby field is getting whittled down with scratches. That means good news for the alpha horse. Forte enters this race as the clear best thoroughbred in the field. I’m not overthinking it this year after we saw a monstrous upset in 2022. The favorite wins easily on Saturday with the law of averages playing out at Churchill Downs.
Pick: Ride with Forte at 3/1.
John Boel
Does not work for Kentucky Sports Radio. He’s a news anchor at Louisville’s NBC affiliate, WAVE-3 who has covered the Kentucky Derby for decades. Earlier this week he shared his thoughts on the race and who he believes will wear the garland of roses Saturday evening.
Tyler Thompson
I have done absolutely zero research for the Derby this year. That said, I really like Tapit Trice because 1) he is gray and only eight gray horses have won the Derby, the last being Giacomo in 2005; and 2) my married name is “Tapia,” so it’s almost like betting on myself three times; and 3) alliteration!
Pick: Tapit Trice
Drew Franklin
DISCLAIMER: I haven’t picked a Derby winner since Big Brown.
Now with that out of the way, I answer when called to make a Kentucky Derby winner prediction and this year I have my eyes on Verifying to win from the second position. If I had the mic I’d call it like this: “And without paying $8/month, the Kentucky Derby just got verified! VERIFYING gets the check mark for 149th Kentucky Derby champion! What’s that musk? ROSES!”
You can now eliminate Verifying from contention.
Pick: Verifying (But also Angel of Empire)
Zack Geoghegan
Am I allowed to pick one of the horses from Japan as my choice? No? Okay fine, then I’ll side with Mage at 17-1 as my top-secret, no-one-else-has-this-kind-of-scoop prediction to upset the field. The Bluegrass-born colt is a bit inexperienced and sports some North Carolina blue silks, but he came in second at the Florida Derby in April and won at Gulfstream Park in late January. The No. 8 horse will win you a fancy Jeff Ruby’s dinner come Saturday night. Thank me later.
Pick: Mage
Jack Pilgrim
Speaking of Jeff Ruby’s, I’m a big fan of the restaurant. Have spent good money there in Louisville, Lexington and Nashville. And in my brief research, I found that Two Phil’s (12-1) won something called the Jeff Ruby in March by five and a quarter lengths, and that sounds both delicious and impressive. He’s won before at Churchill Downs, too, so feels like a sneaky good pick.
But I’m also only here for the booze. Go Cats.
Pick: Two Phil’s
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