Luckett's Locks: Final Stretch

After a 5-4 against the spread (ATS) record last week, Luckett’s Locks has put together back-to-back winning weekends for the first time this season.

Not sure it was well worth the wait.

Overall, we sit at 31-37-2 ATS as Luckett’s Locks looks to close the season strong. The college football season is quickly reaching its endpoint, but we have three more weekends to get that overall mark back over .500.

Enough of the small talk — let’s get to the best plays on the card.

Michigan (-1.5) @ Penn State

Once again, Jim Harbaugh has Michigan football in the Big Ten and College Football Playoff hunt in November. Can the Wolverines finally seal the deal? Michigan has been paced by one of the nation’s best rushing attacks, and the defense has returned to former under new play-caller Mike Macdonald.

Penn State was able to end a three-game losing streak last week against Maryland on the road as James Franklin is trying to prevent the season from getting out of control. The Nittany Lions have major issues establishing the run and can be very bad when quarterback Sean Clifford does not have the hot hand.

Penn State can’t run the ball and has had some issues stopping the run. That gives the Wolverines the edge in the game as Harbaugh’s team has the better unit on both sides off the ball.

The Wolverines pick up a huge road win to bolster their resume and set up a huge matchup at home with Ohio State on Thanksgiving Saturday.

Lay the small number.

Syracuse @ Louisville Under 55.5

Quietly, Dino Babers is putting together a strong season in Central New York. Syracuse has one of the top rushing attacks in college football and the second-best defense in the ACC. Sean Tucker has a chance to lead the country in rushing, and Mississippi State transfer Garrett Shrader has settled things at quarterback.

Meanwhile, Louisville is coming off another tough one-possession loss. The Cardinals were unable to punch it in from goal-to-go last week at home against Clemson. Now Malik Cunningham has an injured ankle, and the Cardinals might have lost momentum.

Cunningham means everything to Louisville, and he may be hobbled for the noon kickoff. Quietly, Louisville’s defense has done a good job against the run in the last few weeks. Combine the two, and we have the ingredients for a low-scoring game at Cardinal Stadium.

Take the under.

UCF @ SMU (-7)

All of a sudden, SMU is reeling after consecutive road losses. The Mustangs are starting to fade, and there’s talk of playing true freshman quarterback Preston Stone on Saturday. SMU is down to eighth in yards per play defense in the American. Sonny Dykes needs something good to happen for his program fast.

UCF is still without star quarterback Dillon Gabriel, but the defense has helped turn around the season for Gus Malzahn. The Knights are third in the conference in yards per play allowed, and opponents have scored a combined 24 points the last three weeks. UCF is winning with defense.

However, the defense won’t be enough on Saturday. SMU will be highly motivated, and the Knights have major issues on offense. SMU bounces back and claims a big win.

Lay the touchdown.

Iowa State (-10.5) @ Texas Tech

Quietly, Iowa State is still very much in the Big 12 race following a home beatdown of Texas. The defense has been disappointing in Ames, but the offense is delivering as Breece Hall has 1,124 rushing yards and Brock Purdy is averaging over eight yards per attempt.

The Joey McGuire era has started in Lubbock, but Texas Tech must finish the season. The Red Raiders are bad on defense while the offense has had some moments passing the football.

If Iowa State wants to keep pace in the Big 12 race, the Cyclones have to win this game. We have not had much luck backing Matt Campbell’s team, but this feels like a good spot facing a reeling Texas Tech squad.

Lay the double-digits with the Cyclones as an Iowa State win sets up a huge game in Norman against Oklahoma next Saturday.

Florida Atlantic (-6.5) @ Old Dominion

After a rough home loss to Marshall, the Owls need to make up some ground in the C-SUA East. Miami transfer N’Kosi Perry is having a strong season at quarterback (8.2 yards per attempt, 16 touchdowns), and defensive coordinator Mike Stoops has a solid Group of Five defense.

Former Penn State offensive coordinator Ricky Rahne is in his first playing season at Old Dominion after the program sat out in 2020 due to COVID-19. The Monarchs are struggling at 3-6 with a bad offense and defense. However, ODU enters the game with consecutive wins.

Willie Taggart and FAU enter this game in must-win territory. Old Dominion has momentum, but the Owls are better on both sides and should have motivation following a tough loss to Marshall at home.

Lay the points.

Purdue (+21) @ Ohio State

All of a sudden, Purdue is putting together its best season under Jeff Brohm as the Boilermakers are 6-3 with a pair of top-five wins in Big Ten play. David Bell is having an All-American season at wide receiver (64 receptions, 1,003 yards, 5 touchdowns).

Ohio State is firmly in the College Football Playoff hunt, but the Buckeyes nearly messed around and lost to Nebraska last week. However, the defense is beginning to make strides while the offense remains elite in Columbus.

As a road underdog, Brohm is 9-2 ATS at Purdue. Catching three touchdowns is enough to feel good about the Boilermakers who will be able to score some points against Ohio State.

Luckett’s Locks is riding with underdog Jeff Brohm yet again.

Best Bet: Texas A&M (-2.5) @ Ole Miss

After four consecutive victories, Texas A&M is up to 7-2 and sits at No. 11 in the top 25. Jimbo Fisher has a chance to get his team back into the New Year’s Six, and the Aggies have the rushing attack and defense to thank.

Meanwhile, Ole Miss is also at 7-2 and sits at No. 15 in the top 25. Matt Corral is not out of the Heisman Trophy race yet as Lane Kiffin has a chance to reach double-digit wins in his second season in Oxford. The Rebels have defensive issues, but the offense has done enough to win games.

The conversation could be had that Texas A&M has the best defense in college football outside of Georgia. Meanwhile, Ole Miss has issues stopping the run. Those two factors give the Aggies an edge on the road with College GameDay in town.

Jimbo Fisher is 7-0 ATS as a road favorite at Texas A&M, and the Aggies get another cover on Saturday night.