Monday Huddle: Building Momentum

Kentucky just played its second big swing game of the 2022 season in Week 10. The Wildcats once again passed the test.

Just like the Week 7 matchup with Mississippi State, UK found itself as a short dog, and the team yet again found a way to win a big game against Missouri.

It certainly wasn’t pretty, but all wins count the same. At 6-3 (3-3) with three consecutive home games to end the year, the Cats have an avenue to another bowl trip to Florida and a top-25 finish. No division title stakes remaining for the football program in Lexington, but there is still a lot left to play for.

Kentucky hosts Vanderbilt on Saturday afternoon with the opportunity to record consecutive conference wins for the first time this season. KSR’s Monday Huddle is here to start the football week in the Bluegrass as the Cats look to build some momentum with the season coming to a close.

First Down: Keeping Will Levis healthy

The biggest news from Kentucky’s 21-17 win at Faurot Field on Saturday wasn’t what happened on the field. It’s what announcers Jay Alter and Dustin Fox told us during the SEC Network broadcast.

Kentucky quarterback Will Levis is dealing with some lingering injury issues (turf toe, left shoulder) and is nowhere close to full strength. Therefore, the coaching staff has removed all designed QB runs from the playbook to protect the quarterback.

After the win in Columbia, Levis confirmed to reporters that he is at “like 75 percent” health-wise with his mobility being severely limited. That has taken away some of the movement skills the redshirt senior possesses and has very much made him somewhat of a statue in the pocket.

That showed up in dropbacks as Levis took six sacks against Missouri as Blake Baker’s defense rolled up an absurd sack rate (25%) to limit what was otherwise an efficient and explosive Kentucky passing attack.

It’s clear that Levis is banged up and is trying to gut his way through the season. Will the quarterback be able to make it through these final three games? The Cats could use some better pass protection.

Levis has taken 30 sacks through eight games this season with a very high sack rate (12.5%). Kentucky’s offensive line has had all kinds of issues in pass protection and those are not improving as the season progresses. The offense is at its best when Levis can make throws from the pocket and create explosive plays, but it’s clear the offense must be careful in how they utilize QB1 at the moment.

But the Wildcats are seemingly getting a huge break this week at home.

Vanderbilt 3-6 (0-5) will make the trip north to Lexington again with one of the worst defenses in college football. The Commodores rank sub-100 in passing success rate, passing EPA, sack rate, and points per drive. Quite simply, every Power Five passing game has gotten healthy against Vandy with four teams posting over 10 yards per attempt and four touchdowns.

If the offensive line can hold up, Levis could have a big throwing day but we should expect a somewhat run-heavy approach from Kentucky moving forward. It’s the best way to keep their quarterback upright and healthy as the lack of mobility has taken away one of his biggest strengths as a player.

If the Cats were ever to get a runaway win, Saturday would be a great time for one to arrive.

Second Down: Defensive talent development has been on full display

In the offseason, Kentucky defensive coordinator Brad White received a hefty pay raise after the play-caller went through the interview process with LSU. The former assistant with the Indianapolis Colts has responded by putting together a borderline top-10 defense in 2022.

Through nine games, the Cats rank inside the top five in the SEC in most defensive statistical categories as this group is playing excellent team defense with no true bonafide superstars. The lack of high-end star power was expected coming into the year. Experience figured to be this defense’s biggest strength. Kentucky entered 2022 with five super senior starters but had a lot of underclassmen in backup roles. However, injuries have forced those young players onto the field.

Despite the losses, the Cats haven’t missed a beat on defense.

Redshirt sophomore Andru Phillips has seen his playing time increase over the last two weeks as Kentucky’s starting nickel. The former three-star recruit out of South Carolina just had the best game of his career against Mizzou with six tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss, and one pass breakup. Phillips was active in both the run and pass game.

At linebacker, sophomore Trevin Wallace earned the start with DeAndre Square out with injury. The former top-100 recruit led the team in tackles (9), tackles for loss (3), and sacks (1). Wallace more than occasionally looked like the best player on the field.

Elsewhere, Jordan Lovett has become a quality starter at free safety as a redshirt freshman, and Deone Walker continues to impress on the defensive line as a true freshman. Kentucky has a lot of young players who have stepped up and played at a high level on defense early in their careers.

This is a great sign for the defense when looking ahead to the future. Kentucky is a “recruit and develop” program. Some real talent development has been shown on defense this season. This unit hasn’t missed a beat all year despite seeing significant injuries to four starters, and that’s not even counting losing Vito Tisdale for the season during spring practice.

The future is bright for this defense, but the young players are also helping Kentucky reach a high ceiling in the present.

Third Down: Rushing efficiency has taken a dip

Chris Rodriguez Jr. entered 2022 as one of the best tailbacks in the SEC due to his overall efficiency. The redshirt senior out of McDonough (Ga.) Ola isn’t necessarily a home run hitter at tailback, but the All-SEC performer is a player that can consistently keep the offense ahead of the chains.

In 2020, Rodriguez posted a 65.5 percent success rate on 119 carries and avoided bad plays with a 4.2 percent stuff rate. In 2021, Rodriguez posted a 55.1 percent success rate on 225 carries with a solid 9.4 percent stuff rate.

After a strong start to the year highlighted by a vintage performance against Mississippi State (197 yards, 2 touchdowns, 6.3 yards per rush, 61.3% success rate), we’ve seen Rodriguez have some struggles against top-20 run defenses Tennessee and Missouri the last two weeks.

In those two outings, Rodriguez has posted a paltry success rate (29.5%) on 44 total attempts with a high stuff rate (27.3%). Kentucky is still run heavy on offense, but it is getting the offense behind the chains and putting an offensive line that struggles in pass protection in some bad situations.

Passing on more first downs could be something the Cats look at moving forward after the offense averaged 11.6 yards per play on a 57.1 percent success on seven dropbacks against Missouri. However, Kentucky needs to be able to run the football consistently. The Cats need to see some improvements quickly.

Facing a Vanderbilt run defense that ranks No. 101 in yards per rush (4.6) this Saturday should be a good opportunity for the rushing offense to get back on track. Kentucky desperately needs Rodriguez’s trademark efficiency to return.

The week ahead at KSR

Kentucky finishes up the season with a 2-2 record in road games as the Wildcats will finish the season with a three-game homestand in November beginning on Saturday. The path to 8-4, a top-25 finish, and a bowl trip to Florida is there for the taking.

But first, Kentucky must handle Vanderbilt at home as a double-digit favorite. UK will be looking for consecutive conference wins for the first time this season on Saturday. It’s time to see if this team can build some momentum to end the season.

KSR will be here throughout the week to provide non-stop football coverage. Podcasts, videos, practice reports, and research posts on Clark Lea’s Vandy program will be available for your consumption this week.

The Cats have a great chance to close the season on a high note. We’ll see if Mark Stoops’ 10th team in Lexington can finish.