Monday Huddle: Remember November

Some air got let out of the balloon for Kentucky football on Saturday night at Neyland Stadium. Facing a legitimate national title contender, the Cats played poorly, and it certainly looked like the moment was too big for them in the ugly 44-6 loss to Tennessee.

The Cats have fallen to 5-3 (2-3) entering the last month of the season. Once again, the injury bug has arrived as multiple starters were knocked out of the game in Knoxville. Mark Stoops and his program will enter the final month of the season with four more power conference games remaining and a ton of questions to answer.

November will be a huge month for Kentucky. The Wildcats need to salvage a season that has taken three tough losses and still has a game with No. 1 Georgia remaining on the schedule. What happens over the next four weeks will define offseason storylines for the program.

The Cats have a shot at getting things back on track before this season ends, but some major strides need to be made on offense.

First Down: Feels like a crossroads

Kentucky is in year two of its pro-style offensive transformation after making a change following the 2020 season. Liam Coen set the foundation in year one as Kentucky put together a top-25 offense that returned a bunch of key pieces in 2022.

Rich Scangarello inherited an operation with a star quarterback and promising skill talent at every position. There was development needed on the offensive line, but this was a unit that had a very high ceiling and a floor that should not have been very low as long as Will Levis stayed on the field.

Well, things are really bad for the Kentucky offense right now.

Against one of the worst passing defenses in college football on Saturday, Kentucky’s star quarterback posted an ugly 19.4 percent passing success taking four sacks, throwing three interceptions, and posting just 3.6 yards per attempt.

In a big spot for the program, the passing offense looked just like the operation in 2020 when the Cats struggled to beat man coverage and take vertical shots. The offense is going in the wrong direction.

Under Scangarello, Kentucky has yet to score more than 31 offensive points in a game this season and is averaging only 17 offensive points per game in five outings against Power Five competition. That is not good enough and is unacceptable.

With four games remaining, the offense must get things turned around. If we leave Thanksgiving weekend and this is an attack that can only average 17 points per game in nine contests against Power Five competition, a long look in the mirror and some tough staffing questions might need to be answered.

However, things are not going to get easier for this program anytime soon. A top-25 defense is awaiting them this week.

Second Down: Blake Baker has flipped the switch at Missouri

Rewind to Week 2 in the 2021 football season, and Kentucky faced Missouri in a big early season SEC tilt. Both the Wildcats and Tigers entered the year with high expectations, and the swing game at Kroger Field was huge for each SEC East program.

Kentucky held on in the end for a 35-28 win, but the final score should not have been that close. A blocked field goal and a goal-to-go turnover likely took 10 points off the board as the Tigers had no answer on defense. Kentucky’s offense averaged 7.4 yards per play rushing for over 300 yards in the SEC win. In year two under Eliah Drinkwitz, Missouri fielded one of the worst defenses in the Power Five.

The Tigers ranked No. 113 in yards per play allowed (6.4) as foes rushed for 227.9 yards per game last season. Defensive coordinator Steve Wilks would leave the program after just a one-year stay, and former Miami defensive coordinator Blake Baker would take over the unit.

Mizzou added some key transfers to the defensive roster in the offseason, and Baker has the Tigers playing at a top-25 level this season.

Missouri entered Week 9 ranking inside the top 25 in defensive EPA, success rate, and points per drive. The unit has no true weakness and was dominant in recent wins against Vanderbilt and South Carolina. Meanwhile, Baker’s defense gave Mizzou a great shot in one-possession losses against Auburn, Georgia, and Florida.

Kentucky might be getting ready to face the best defense they’ll see all season outside of Georgia at Faurot Field on Saturday. This is not the matchup the UK offense needs as it goes searching for answers after a humbling performance against Tennessee.

Third Down: Kentucky’s defense could carry the offense to the finish line

The No. 1 storyline for Kentucky football over the next four weeks will be the development of the offense to end the season. The Cats have to make strides on that side of the football, but Mark Stoops will need his top-15 defense to deliver in the final four games of the season.

Outside of the Nov. 19 meeting with Georgia, the Wildcats will not face an offense that ranks inside the top 40 in yards per play or ESPN’s SP+ rankings. Missouri, Louisville, and Vanderbilt all have some limitations on offense.

In year three for Eliah Drinkwitz, the Tigers are averaging only 17.5 points against power conference competition this season. Kentucky’s woes have been well documented, but the Tigers rank in the 100s in EPA, success rate, and points per drive. Brady Cook has had some struggles at quarterback (38.7% passing success rate) and the rushing attack has been very anemic throughout the season.

Kentucky could be forced to turn games into slugfests to close the season. Defensive coordinator Brad White could need his unit to pull out some much-needed wins as the Wildcats attempt to salvage this season.

The Cats cannot afford a lackluster defensive effort to end the year. A lot is riding on the defense.

The week ahead at KSR

Once again in the 2022 season, the Kentucky football team is backed into the corner. Things have a chance to tailspin in the last four games of the season. But we’ve seen the team in this spot before.

After the tough loss against South Carolina, Kentucky bounced back the next week to deliver its best performance of the year in an impressive double-digit victory over Mississippi State where both the offense and defense played well together. We’ll find out if this team can show some resolve again on a road trip to Missouri.

KSR will be here throughout the week to provide non-stop football coverage. Podcasts, videos, practice reports, and research posts on Missouri will on be here for your consumption this week. We’ll also be diving into why the offense looks the way it does through eight games this year.

We’ve got a significant four-game stretch coming for Kentucky football. We are going to learn a lot in November, and that run begins now.