Mutuel Musings 10/21

Race 1 #5 T.J. COLE is not a Tubby Smith recruit. Sorry. But he is a quick colt who's hit the board in each of his 3 starts this year against tougher foes. Good shot to finally find the winner's cricle here. #4 KAISHU has been plagued by rough trips in her 3 lifetime starts, but still has fared no worse than 4th. Assuming he gets a clean ride, look for him to hit the board. My longshot pick is the #11CAPOTE'S FLAME. Not only a very fitting name, this colt should remain a good price. Making his first start, but has worked well on the Polytrack and has a proven bloodline, and winning connections. ($.10 superfecta box 5, 4, 3, 11) Race 3 # 7 VIBS looks to be in top form and has been pointed to this race all season. #8 ROYAL CUP has plenty of kick and will be a contender. Race 4 # 7 ALMONSOON is the deserved favorite. This filly has been superb thus far in '06, including an allowance romp at Monmouth in August. Be leary however, as she's making her debut on the turf, but trainer Todd Pletcher kind of knows what he's doing. The #1/1a combo is fortable, althought the #1a might scratch. Both are proven turf fillies who have run well against similar competition. Plus, both are coming off a 2 month layoff and should be ready to fire. Don't look past the #9 HERMANCE. She's been solid, even against tougher foes. I'd be surprised if she didn't find the board. ($ 10 show 9) Race 5 # 5 VOULEZ VOUS is trained by Frechy Patrick Biancone, and ridden by Frechy Julian Leparoux. There's a lot to root against there. Too bad she's the classiest, and probably fastest horse in this field. This is her first career start, but should be the start of something special. If you're looking for a filly whose actually raced before, try the #12 D'ORO DOLL. A lifetime starter of two, she's beginning to come around, as trainer Ian Wilkes has been pointing her for this one since the summer. Race 7 # 7 PRIVATE GIFT ought to be ready after being rested since a rough trip in the G2 Breeder's Cup Handicap at Chruchill in May. This will be her first attempt both on Poly and at a sprint, but expect her to run a strong one. Longshot: # 3 MISS PENNY FORTUNE Race 8 # 8 CLASSIC CAMPAIGN is coming off a 2 month layoff, and his history indicates he's primed for a big effort. Trained by the King of Turf Bill Mott, this will be tough. ($1 tri box 8, 5, 3, 9) Race 9 #4 WINDY should be moving late and looks like the one to beat. Winner of her last two, she's hitting peak form. This is a substantial step-up in class, however. I would play the #10 MORNER if her odds stay around 8-1. Put her with the 4, 3, or 2. Longshots: # 7 SABATINI and # 12 EX CAELIS--put them in with one of your exotics and hope for the best.