NCAA Tournament Watch: Chattanooga and Georgia State secure bids
Going to be publishing daily posts updating the full scope of the NCAA Tournament as we barrel towards Selection Sunday during Champ Week. Monday featured as spectacular a conference tournament finish (heck, a game in general) that we may see all month as two teams nabbed NCAA Tournament bids.
Also, I’m introducing my NCAA Tournament Master Sheet. An exhaustive manifest charting every single conference champion, “locks” for at-large bids and a thorough review of every bubble team resume. If you want to skip to the behemoth excel-sheet dissection of the bracket, scroll on past the first few headlines.
SoCon: Chattanooga over Furman
I hope y’all tuned in for the Southern Conference title game. Seriously, one of the great Conference Tournament finishes I can ever remember. Let’s debrief. (Typing this fresh after watching this, by the way).
Furman held control for the first half and led by 12 early in the second. Then the Mocs blitzed the Paladins with a 24-4 run to take a 40-32 lead late in the second. But Furman stormed back and Mike Bothwell hit a three to tie the game at 46 with two minutes left. Then, down three again on the final Paladin possession, Bothwell drained a second step-back three to tie it at 51-51 and send the SoCon title to overtime.
In overtime, Bothwell converted an and-one and hit a mid-range jumper to give Furman the early lead. Chattanooga battled back and a three by David Jean-Baptiste tied the game with two minutes to go, despite his 1-8 shooting from deep thus far.
Tied at 61, Bothwell took control for Furman with less than 30 seconds to play. He pounded his way into the paint and hit a layup with four seconds left to take the lead in OT. But the Mocs quickly in-bounded the ball and, well, watch for yourself…
JEAN-BAPTISTE FOR THE WIN BABY!! At least, that’s how I’ll imagine Dicky V would’ve called it had he been in the booth. Mocs to the tournament in heart-breaking fashion for Furman. So, so tough to have the game in hand only to lose on a circus shot at the buzzer. Games like these are why we all love March and its Madness. Almost think we may have seen the craziest game we’ll see all month. What a finish at the Harrah’s Cherokee Center and Casino.
Why they can pull an upset: Looking towards the NCAA Tournament, this Mocs team is likely looking at 12-seed. Before you ask, yes, they’re an easy 12 over five upset candidate. Due to their three best players. Malachi Smith didn’t have his best game, but at 20.4 points, 6.7 rebounds and 3.1 assists per game, he’s one of the best, most-versatile point guards in the nation. He also has a size and athleticism advantage over 95% of opposing point guards he’ll face.
Additionally, David Jean-Baptiste is a burly backcourt mate and 14-per-game scorer. Also, there’s Silvio De Sousa, former top-40 recruit whose last appearance in the NCAA Tournament came during Kansas’s 2018 Final Four run, where he walled up Marvin Bagley on defense to help the Jayhawks defeat Duke in the Elite Eight. This team has a fringe All-American in Smith and an athletic supporting cast. Pick ’em in the first round, folks.
Sun Belt: Georgia State over Louisiana
Georgia State’s Corey Allen nailed a three to give the Panthers a 7-5 lead early in the first half and that’s a perfect encapsulation of the Sun Belt title game. Georgia State held the lead the rest of the way and rode 66% three-point shooting to a win. 2022 marks their third Sun Belt ‘chip in the last five years, but the first under coach Rob Lanier.
Why they can pull an upset: If the Panther snipe threes at a 66% rate I’ll guarantee they win their first-round matchup. Realistically, Georgia State is looking at a likely 14-seed facing a solid crop of projected three-seeds. Uphill battle. What they have on their side is guard-play, and we’ve all heard about how the Tournament is decided by guards. Kane Williams, Corey Allen and Justin Roberts are Georgia State’s three leading scorers and they share 16 years of collegiate experience between them — with each spending four seasons at Georgia State.
Panthers boast a wildly experienced group of guards that may be transfers but also have played together for four straight years. If they pull a surprise in March, these guys will be responsible.
Bubble Action
The only bubble team that played Monday according to my master sheet is San Francisco. They managed to lose to Gonzaga for the third time this season. The Dons hand the committee a 24-9 total record with three quad-one wins and five combined wins over BYU and Santa Clara headlining their resume. NET (24th) and other metrics love SF compared to other bubble teams, and six of their nine losses came in quad one games.
This team will nab an at-large bid. I’ll keep them in the bubble consideration in case of some craziness throughout the week. But a bunch of wins over BYU is probably enough to get San Fran in the Big Dance.
NCAA Tournament Master Sheet
Alas. I’ve compiled every single conference and projected its champions. As bids are secured, I’ll put them in bold, as you can see with the five teams who’ve won their conference titles already. Champs account for 32 of the 68 teams. The remaining 36 belong to at-large bids, teams who failed to win their conference title.
For now, I have 34 teams I view as “locks” in the at-large category, and the committee has to nominate 36. Now, several of those 34 figure to win their conference tournaments, which will cut into that list. Then there’s the bubble teams, for which I provided their record, NET rating, and Quad-One record.
Over the course of the week, I’ll move locks that lose into the at-large portion in bold, like San Francisco. By Sunday, I’ll have the conference champs filled and the at-large spots whittled down to a few spots. So then we can argue over which bubble teams deserve those final few bids.
Enjoy! (And please let me know if I can simplify this or make it easier to read/understand.)
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