KSR's 2023 NCAA Tournament East Region Preview
March Madness has arrived and KSR will be digging into every region before the party gets started in Dayton on Tuesday. First up is the East where the champ will be crowned in Madison Square Garden.
On paper, this is the weakest region heading into the 2023 Big Dance. Purdue enters as the favorite, but things feel wide open.
The bracket
The schedule
Wednesday
- 6:40 PM | truTV | Dayton: No. 16 Texas Southern (-3) vs. No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson
Thursday
- 7:10 PM | CBS | Orlando: No. 12 Oral Roberts (+6.5) vs. No. 5 Duke
- 9:40 PM | CBS | Orlando: No. 13 Louisiana (+10.5) vs. No. 4 Tennessee
Friday
- 12:15 PM | CBS | Columbus: No. 10 USC (+1.5) vs. No. 7 Michigan State
- 2:45 PM | CBS | Columbus: No. 15 Vermont (+11.5) vs. No. 2 Marquette
- 6:50 PM | TNT | Columbus: No. 16 Texas Southern/Fairleigh Dickinson vs. No. 1 Purdue
- 7:10 PM | CBS | Greensboro: No. 11 Providence (+3.5) vs. No. 6 Kentucky
- 9:20 PM | TNT | Columbus: No. 9 Florida Atlantic (+3) vs. No. 8 Memphis
- 9:40 PM | CBS | Greensboro: No. 14 Montana State (+9) vs. No. 3 Kansas State
Efficiency rankings
Using the pre-tournament numbers at KenPom, here is how the region ranks overall via adjusted efficiency.
5. Tennessee (No. 49 offense, No. 2 defense)
7. Purdue (No. 7 offense, No. 26 defense)
12. Marquette (No. 8 offense, No. 47 defense)
19. Memphis (No. 26 offense, No. 35 defense)
21. Duke (No. 42 offense, No. 24 defense)
24. Kansas State (No. 52 offense, No. 19 defense)
26. Florida Atlantic (No. 32 offense, No. 36 defense)
28. Kentucky (No. 14 offense, No. 71 defense)
32. Michigan State (No. 41 offense, No. 40 defense)
36. USC (No. 43 offense, No. 48 defense)
44. Providence (No. 16 offense, No. 108 defense)
56. Oral Roberts (No. 23 offense, No. 107 defense)
92. Louisiana (No. 57 offense, No. 146 defense)
110. Montana State (No. 170 offense, No. 73 defense)
113. Vermont (No. 99 offense, No. 153 defense)
285. Texas Southern (No. 330 offense, No. 196 defense)
312. Fairleigh Dickinson (No. 155 offense, No. 361 defense)
The favorite
Early in the season, Purdue emerged as a national title contender following a 7-0 November that included five power conference wins over Duke, Florida State, Gonzaga, Marquette, and West Virginia. The Boilermakers then ran out to a 22-1 record before some losses started to pile up in February.
However, Matt Painter’s 18th team in West Lafayette did enough to claim an outright Big Ten title and then finished the deal in Chicago with wins over Rutgers, Ohio State, and Penn State to claim the program’s second conference tournament championship.
Purdue enters March Madness with likely national player of the year Zach Edey at center. The 7-4, 305-pound big is a matchup nightmare that is averaging 22.3 points and 12.8 rebounds per game while shooting 60.6 percent from the floor. The junior is the best player in this region.
Purdue is one of the best college basketball programs without a national championship and this program has not made the Final Four since 1980. This feels like the year where that streak can finally end.
Bryce Hopkins bowl
Bryce Hopkins was a top-40 prospect in the class of 2021 that Kentucky flipped from Louisville. The wing and small ball four spent just one season in Lexington averaging 6.5 minutes and 2.1 points per game on .429/.313/.538 shooting splits.
Hopkins immediately entered the transfer portal after the season and landed at Providence. The sophomore had made a huge production jump in the Big East.
The transfer enters the NCAA Tournament averaging 34.8 minutes, 16.1 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 2.3 assists per game on .457/.378/.763 shooting splits. Playing stretch four for head coach Ed Cooley, Hopkins is the top offensive option for the Friars.
Now the Greater Chicago native will get a swing at his former school on the biggest stage in college basketball.
One of the biggest games of Friday night will be Hopkins vs. Kentucky with the game getting the prime 7:00 window on CBS. Expect this to be one of the most hyped up games of the first round.
Upset special: No. 12 Oral Roberts over No. 5 Duke
Duke has won nine consecutive games entering the NCAA Tournament claiming an ACC Tournament title with wins over Pittsburgh, Miami, and Virginia. The Blue Devils are going to be a very trendy pick to win the East region. The hype train has already left the station.
Sometimes these are the teams to fade in the first weekend. Don’t overlook the tricky draw Duke received in the first weekend.
The Blue Devils will have to travel to Orlando instead of having a home crowd in Greensboro to face No. 12 seed Oral Roberts (30-4) and star guard Max Abmas. The star player is averaging 22.2 points per game while shooting 37.7 percent from three on 9.4 attempts per game. Abmas is a high volume shooter and scorer with big-game pedigree.
In 2021, Abmas was a star as No. 15 seed Oral Roberts knocked off No. 2 seed Ohio State who just made a crazy run to win the Big Ten Tournament. The Golden Eagles were one shot away from beating Arkansas in the Sweet 16 that season.
Abmas won’t be afraid of the moment. Put Duke on upset alert.
Florida Atlantic’s big stage
The Conference USA school that turned in some big football seasons under Lane Kiffin is now making things happen on the hardwood. Florida Atlantic was perhaps college basketball’s best mid-major story this season.
Under former Florida assistant coach Dusty May, the Owls finished the regular season at 28-3 and have made the NCAA Tournament for only the second time in program history. An automatic bid wasn’t even necessary.
FAU would’ve been in the Big Dance without a C-USA tournament title and will come to Columbus expecting to win. May has a very well-rounded team that shoots a lot of threes and plays sound defense.
Memphis will be a trendy pick to get to the second weekend. Don’t be surprised if FAU pulls a mild upset on Friday night.
Tom Izzo’s kind of bracket
Tom Izzo has made the Final Four six times during his career at Michigan State. In half of those appearances, the Spartans were a No. 5 seed or worse. This is the kind region that Izzo can make a splash in.
Michigan State was tested against a ridiculously hard non-conference slate that included matchups with Gonzaga, Kentucky, and Alabama before entering Big Ten play. The Spartans could be a sneaky tough second-round matchup for Marquette in Columbus.
Izzo owns a 53-23 career record in the NCAA Tournament. If one or two things break, the Spartans could find themselves in the Elite Eight again playing for another Final Four berth.
West champion: Purdue
Everyone will want to go off the board and pick a random team to make the Final Four in the East. That seems like a winning strategy. I’ll stick with the chalk.
Purdue has a huge matchup advantage with Edey in the paint and seem to have a manageable path. This is a hungry program that will play in a familiar gym in Columbus and should have a very good crowd in New York City.
There will be some close calls throughout the way, but Boilermakers get enough key shotmaking from their young guards to cut down the nets in Madison Square Garden.
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