KSR's NCAA Tournament West Region Preview

Once again, Gonzaga is the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament. Is this the year Mark Few finally wins his first national championship?

Out in the West, the ultimate destination is San Francisco as 16 teams are vying for a regional title crown at the beautiful palace built for the Golden State Warriors also known as the Chase Center. However, the Zags could have to get by some teams the Bulldogs have had issues with in the past.

The Bracket

The Schedule

Wednesday

• 9:10 PM | truTV | Dayton: No. 11 Notre Dame (-1) vs. No. 11 Rutgers

Thursday

• 1:45 PM | TNT | Portland: No. 9 Memphis (-2.5) vs. No. 8 Boise State
• 4:15 PM | TNT | Portland: No. 16 Georgia State (+23) vs. No. 1 Gonzaga
• 6:50 PM | TNT | Buffalo: No. 12 New Mexico State (+6.5) vs. No. 5 UConn
• 9:20 PM | TBS | Buffalo: No. 13 Vermont (+4.5) vs. No. 4 Arkansas

Friday

• 1:45 PM | TNT | San Diego: No. 14 Montana State (+15.5) vs. No. 3 Texas Tech
• 4:15 PM | TNT | San Diego: No. 11 Rutgers/Notre Dame vs. No. 6 Alabama
• 7:10 PM | CBS | Greenville: No. 15 CS Fullerton (+18.5) vs. No. 2 Duke
• 9:40 PM | CBS | Greenville: No. 10 Davidson (+1) vs. No. 7 Michigan State

The NCAA Tournament favorite

Over at Draft Kings, Gonzaga is listed as the favorite (+300) to cut down the nets in New Orleans. Mark Few’s team has been the No. 1 team at KenPom for the large majority of the season, and the Bulldogs will enter the NCAA Tournament with the No. 1 offense and a top-10 defense. With a tall front line of two players listed at 6-foot-10 or taller, Gonzaga has great size that teams up with a lot of shooting on the perimeter.

For the second year in a row, Gonzaga will be the favorite, and this year there is not a clear No. 2 like there was last year with Baylor. Few might finally be able to claim that national championship hardware.

Coach K’s last region

Have you heard that this is Mike Krzyzewski’s final year at Duke? Well, if you haven’t, you must have been living under a rock. The sport’s all-time winningest coach will be hanging up his whistle following the season. Unfortunately — or fortunately — Duke is not entering the tournament in the best spot after falling to North Carolina in Coach K’s final home game and losing to Virginia Tech in the ACC title.

As long as Krzyzewski is in the tournament, expect CBS to roll out the red carpet treatment. The top broadcast team of Jim Nantz, Bill Raftery, Grant Hill, and Tracy Wolfson will likely be on the call for every Duke game, and Krzyzewski will be talked about ad nauseam by every studio crew employed by both CBS and Turner Sports.

Get ready for some Duke overload as the Blue Devils chase a national championship out of the No. 2 seed in the West.

Upset special: No. 12 New Mexico State over No. 5 UConn

When the bracket was first released, a matchup between Dan Hurley and Eric Musselman in round two was something that immediately jumped off the page. However, both Arkansas and UConn have some tricky opening games in Buffalo.

In Arkansas-Vermont, the Hogs athleticism should give the Catamounts some issues. However, New Mexico State should have the personnel to hang with UConn. Chris Jans has qualified the Aggies for the NCAA Tournament for the fourth time in five seasons and this year’s group has great length.

We love an Aggie fan 😏#AggieUp | @ClarkKelloggCBS pic.twitter.com/tmKK2w4blW

— NM State MBB (@NMStateMBB) March 14, 2022

NMSU has no one shorter than 6-foot-4 in the backcourt, and 6-foot-10 center Will McNair can hang with star Adama Sanogo in the post. Meanwhile, UConn is No. 249 nationally in two-point field goal percentage and New Mexico State is top-35 in defensive two-point field goal percentage.

Jans is 0-3 in the NCAA Tournament but has clearly been one of the best mid-major coaches over the last few seasons. New Mexico State is due for a win in the tournament. The Aggies will shock a UConn team that has exceeded expectations all year.

Texas Tech has history with Gonzaga

Under new head coach Mark Adams, Texas Tech showed no signs of slowing down without Chris Beard on the sidelines. The Red Raiders finished the season 25-9 (12-6) and have the top defense in college basketball.

The same was true for the Red Raiders back in 2019 when the Big 12 program was placed in the West region. The Red Raiders would march through the bracket and face a Gonzaga team in the Elite Eight who had the No. 1 offense in college basketball. In the matchup, Texas Tech pulled the upset and nearly won the national championship before falling to Virginia in overtime.

The Red Raiders don’t have a scorer as good as Jarrett Culver on this team, but the defense might be just as good. Adams was the top defensive assistant for Beard, and the Red Raiders have remained elite with him calling the shots.

Everyone is expecting to see a Duke-Gonzaga rematch in the Elite Eight, but don’t be surprised if Texas Tech can scare Gonzaga once again in the West.

NBA personnel will be interested

At Gonzaga, true freshman Chet Holmgren looks like a potential basketball unicorn. The seven-foot forward can make plays off the bounce, protect the rim (No. 9 nationally in block rate), score at multiple levels (41.2% from three), and rebound at a high level (top-20 nationally in defensive rebound rate). The No. 1 recruit is putting up 14.6 points, 9.6 rebounds, and 3.6 blocks in just 26.9 minutes per night. The diaper dandy is a stud.

Yet, he’s not the only lottery pick that folks will be looking at in this region.

Jalen Duren leads Memphis in scoring (12.1), rebounds (8.1), blocks (2.2), and field goal percentage (62.6%). Another former five-star recruit, the former Kentucky target has had a lot to do with Penny Hardaway’s team getting hot and going 12-2 down the stretch to qualify for an at-large bid.

Seeing Duren and Holmgren battle in round two could be the highlight of the first weekend as long as Mountain West champ Boise State doesn’t play spoiler.

Elsewhere, Paolo Banchero (Duke) is also sitting at the bottom of the bracket. Three of the best freshmen in college basketball are in this region, and each should be a top-10 pick this year. Luckily, each plays in the paint, and we could see them battle throughout the West bracket.

West champion: Gonzaga Bulldogs

For the second season in a row, Mark Few will lead his team to the Final Four. The Bulldogs could have a tough second-round game with Memphis, but the Zags are just too efficient on offense for the Tigers to keep up. In the regional semifinals, both Arkansas and UConn will have issues matching up with Gonzaga’s big and talented frontcourt.

In the Elite Eight, both Duke and Texas Tech could give Gonzaga issues. However, the Bulldogs are the better team. Duke will have problems getting enough stops, and Texas Tech just can’t get enough buckets.

Gonzaga wins the West and moves onto New Orleans to make the Final Four for the third time since 2017.