NCAA Tournament Watch: Bubble chaos in power conference tournaments
The Big Six conference tournaments are all underway at this point in the week. Which means bubble teams fighting for their lives and at-large bids being upset. No conference champions to speak of from Thursday, but still plenty of action all around. Let’s run through the important results of Thursday from an NCAA Tournament perspective.
Today also features the biggest update to the NCAA Tournament Master Sheet, which can be found at the bottom of the post. Dive in, folks!
Baylor opens the door for a one-seed
One-seed contenders such as Kansas, Kentucky, Duke, etc. rejoiced at the reigning champs’ expense yesterday afternoon as the Bears fell to Oklahoma in the Big 12 Tournament. I wrote in my college basketball update on Monday that Baylor had an inside track at a one-seed. But blowing the opening game of their postseason vs. the Sooners certainly puts their chances in jeopardy.
Now, Kansas, Kentucky and Auburn are likely jockeying for the last two one-seeds assuming Arizona and Gonzaga occupy the first two spots. The ‘Cats and Tigers will duel it out in the SEC Tournament while Kansas probably takes a one-seed regardless if they take the Big 12 crown. But if they lose, UK and Auburn may both sneak onto the one line, or perhaps Duke or Purdue makes a strong case this week. Either way, business is far from finished at the top of the bracket.
Bubble teams that won and lost
Speaking of Baylor, Oklahoma’s upset of the Bears earned them bubble consideration. I’m typically against 14-loss teams making the NCAA Tournament, but the committee proved last year with Maryland that it’s more than happy to issue a bid to a team with more than a dozen losses. Sooners have neutral-court wins over Arkansas and Baylor and defeated Texas Tech at home. That’s three top-15 wins. Still have them on the outside looking in but worth a mention on the bubble at the very least.
TCU took down Texas in their Big 12 tourney opener to lock up an at-large bid. Jamie Dixon’s club was practically in before upending Texas but now they won’t sweat a drop come Selection Sunday.
Indiana finally held on to win a close game. The Hoosiers erased a 17-point comeback to defeat Michigan in a battle of two teams square on the bubble. Mike Woodson is one step closer to going dancing in year one. I’d have to think a victory over Illinois today puts Indiana in the field for sure. Meanwhile, Juwan Howard and the Wolverines took their 14th loss last night, and you just heard my thoughts on 14-loss at-large teams.
Florida also overcame a big deficit late with a flurry of threes in the final minute to force overtime vs. Texas A&M. But in the extra period, the Aggies drained a three right before the horn to seal a Friday appearance in the SEC Tournament.
Buzz Williams may have a chance at an at-large yet. Sure, A&M dropped eight in a row, but their resume features just 11 total losses and a home win over Arkansas. They also beat two fellow bubble teams, Florida and Notre Dame, on neutral sites — and yesterday completed a season sweep of the Gators. Texas A&M absolutely has a chance to make the field, and can solidify their body of work with a win over Auburn at noon today.
Bubble reapers Boston College were back at it in the ACC Tournament yesterday and nearly took down Miami. The Eagles took Wake Forest to overtime and beat them on Wednesday. Thursday, they took the Hurricanes to extra time. On their final possession of the overtime period, BC bricked a shot and failed to get back on defense, allowing a buzzer-beating layup to keep Miami’s tourney hopes alive.
Creighton took down Marquette in the Big East tourney. Looks like both of those teams should be comfortably in. Marquette more so than the Blue Jays, but the Big East is looking to get at least five teams in the NCAA Tournament.
Finally, Virginia Tech defeated Notre Dame in a shootout, 87-80, as the Hokies are barely keeping their postseason dreams alive. The Fighting Irish are battling for bubble position too, and losses to Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Indiana and Texas A&M give them five total head-to-head defeats at the hands of other bubble teams. If the committee is nitpicking between ND and one of those teams, hard to think they’ll overlook these losses.
Exhibit A why the almighty NET is not to be trusted: Creighton is 21-10 with a 6-5 quad-one record while Virginia Tech is 21-12 with just one quad-one win. Yet the Hokies are more than 30 spots ahead of the Blue Jays. Nonsense!
NCAA Tournament Master Sheet
Changes to the sheet after Thursday:
- Bubble metrics UPDATED
- SIX locks lost and moved to At-Large: Alabama, Baylor, Texas, Marquette, Ohio State, Seton Hall
- NO Conference Champs
Also, remember some guidelines
- 32 Conference champs + 36 at-large bids = 68 total teams
- Bold teams are IN tournament and DONE with season
- Locks move to at-large once/if they lose in conference tournament
- Italics = Projected to field
- Bubble teams that lost*
Dive in. Who do you think should be in and out?
| No. | Conference | Champ | At-Large | Locks | Bubble Teams | NET | Record | Quad1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AAC | Houston | San Fran. | Houston | SMU | 48 | 22-7 | 2-1 |
| 2 | ACC | Duke | St. Mary’s | USC | Notre Dame* | 53 | 21-9 | 3-7 |
| 3 | America East | Vermont | Alabama | Duke | Miami | 63 | 23-9 | 5-1 |
| 4 | Atlantic 10 | Davidson | Baylor | North Carolina | Wake Forest* | 45 | 23-9 | 2-4 |
| 5 | Atlantic Sun | J’ville State | Texas | Kentucky | Virginia Tech | 33 | 19-12 | 1-6 |
| 6 | Big 12 | Kansas | Marquette | Kansas | Virginia* | 80 | 18-12 | 3-7 |
| 7 | Big East | Villanova | Ohio State | Texas Tech | Davidson | 46 | 24-5 | 2-2 |
| 8 | Big Sky | Montana St. | Seton Hall | LSU | Dayton | 52 | 22-9 | 2-2 |
| 9 | Big South | Longwood | USC | TCU | VCU | 51 | 21-8 | 3-3 |
| 10 | Big Ten | Wisconsin | UNC | Iowa St. | Florida* | 58 | 19-13 | 3-9 |
| 11 | Big West | Long Beach St | Texas Tech | Providence | Creighton | 66 | 21-10 | 6-5 |
| 12 | CAA | Delaware | LSU | Villanova | Xavier* | 40 | 18-13 | 5-9 |
| 13 | C-USA | North Texas | TCU | UCONN | Rutgers | 77 | 18-12 | 6-5 |
| 14 | Horizon | Wright St. | Iowa St. | Tennessee | Michigan* | 34 | 17-14 | 5-10 |
| 15 | Ivy League | Princeton | Providence | Auburn | Indiana | 41 | 20-12 | 4-7 |
| 16 | MAAC | Siena | UCONN | Wisconsin | North Texas | 39 | 24-5 | 1-1 |
| 17 | MAC | Kent State | Tennessee | Illinois | Wyoming | 44 | 25-7 | 3-4 |
| 18 | MEAC | Norfolk State | Auburn | Purdue | Oregon* | 74 | 19-15 | 4-5 |
| 19 | MVC | Loyola (IL.) | Illinois | Iowa | Memphis | 35 | 19-9 | 4-3 |
| 20 | Mountain West | SDSU | Purdue | Arkansas | Texas A&M | 55 | 20-11 | 2-9 |
| 21 | Northeast | Bryant | Iowa | Michigan State | BYU | 54 | 22-10 | 4-6 |
| 22 | OVC | Murray St. | Arkansas | Boise State | Oklahoma | 38 | 18-14 | 4-11 |
| 23 | Pac-12 | Arizona | MSU | Colorado State | St. Bonaventure | 82 | 20-8 | 3-4 |
| 24 | Patriot League | Colgate | Boise St. | San Diego State | ||||
| 25 | SEC | Kentucky | UCLA | Arizona | ||||
| 26 | SoCon | Chattanooga | Memphis | UCLA | ||||
| 27 | Southland | Nicholls St. | Miami | |||||
| 28 | Summit League | So. Dakota St. | Creighton | |||||
| 29 | Sun Belt | Georgia St. | Rutgers | Last Four Bye | ||||
| 30 | SWAC | Alcorn St. | SMU | Last Four Bye | ||||
| 31 | WAC | Seattle | Notre Dame | Last Four Bye | ||||
| 32 | WCC | Gonzaga | Texas A&M | Last Four Bye | ||||
| 33 | Indiana | Last Four IN | ||||||
| 34 | Wake Forest | Last Four IN | ||||||
| 35 | Wyoming | Last Four IN | ||||||
| 36 | Xavier | Last Four IN |
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